<p>有哥们说合约还在涨，合约那是组装厂库存在升值，不卖就是哐哐赚</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-6fffde797c94ba96.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>看了一下江波龙的存货，数据来源是江波龙:公司2025年度向特定对象发行A股股票募集说明书(修订稿)2026-02-11，25年末预计108亿存货。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-5eac1fb41edab949.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>江波龙面向消费级的产品是lexar，FORESEE大多在一体机和终端机上看到。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-938b3c9267d9501a.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-8d9f24b46cb3df2e.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>根据其发布的主营业务收入，固态硬盘占24.93，移动存储占22.15，内存条占9.52。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-4ee0f296eb9a007e.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>根据财联社报道，从目前已披露报表看存储模组厂几乎全年利润都集中在第四季度，目前来看，仍在大幅备货，保证供应的同时也能进一步吃到涨价红利。</p><p>在业绩之外，为了紧抓“超级周期”红利，多家公司同步推进了港股上市、产业并购以及新一代存储产品的研发和客户导入。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-3be8bfa9e657a04b.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p>
<p>那么接下来就是正事了。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-4c696ffb1076b96c.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>模组厂和下级的代理商拥有着两套逻辑。</p><p>根据江波龙报告中所描述，报告期公司毛利率最高是19.05%，当然了第四季度数据暂时还没发。那么上游涨价80%传导到消费者手里怎么能涨到500%。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-b68ec7a9e5775aff.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>那么现在的情况是合约继续拉涨，江波龙手握百亿存货，随着合约价上升，就算不做产品，靠着存货也是哐哐涨。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-5b674f23cc435c0f.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>那么接下来就是代理商方面了，存货多对代理商是好事吗，如果市场火热，跟之前显卡那似的，买了就是哐哐赚钱，涨价也买不到卡的情况不同。</p><p>内存这玩意不能直接创造价值，而内存涨价连带着主板销量下降，主板销量下降，连带着其他要插上面的产品销量下降。客户谨慎采购了，需求缩减，大量屯货怕是存储周期结束都卖不完。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-76926989355c3a15.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>随着库存周期拉长，上游慢慢放货，给到消费者的压力并不大，因为马上要五一了，旅游市场是时候吸收一波了。</p><p>
</p>
