诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题。现有研究多从社会学角度,基于微观层次探讨影响诈骗受害的个人属性特征,缺乏从地理学视角对诈骗受害者生存环境中的中宏观层次因素的考虑。本文基于犯罪地理学视角,综合运用平均最近邻、核密度以及负二项回归等研究方法,对ZG市5类诈骗警情的时空分布特征和基于建成环境与社会环境两大维度的影响因素进行了深入探讨。
结果表明：① 各类诈骗的时间分布规律各异,但整体上呈现出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨时段为最低的特征;② 和其他类型的城市犯罪类似,诈骗犯罪整体呈现出与老城区距离衰减的“多中心”显著性集聚特征;各类型诈骗热点的空间分布大同小异,多分布在城市的老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地带;③ 各类诈骗犯罪的空间分布影响因素各异,但整体表现出与银行网点、旅游景点、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成环境因素高度相关;与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、人口老龄化和城镇化水平等社会环境显著相关的特性。本文拓展了犯罪地理学领域对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,证实了各类诈骗犯罪符合日常活动理论的理论假设,对诈骗受害情景预防具有重要意义。
Fraud crime is a widespread social problem that should be taken seriously in modern city. Previous studies mainly focused on personal attributes of victims at the micro level from the perspective of sociology, rather than the environmental factors at the macro level from the perspective of geography.
Using methods such as average nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density and negative binomial regression, this paper aims to discuss spatial-temporal characteristics of five types of fraud crime in ZG city, and explore the influencing factors of physical and socioeconomic environment based on the perspective of crime geography.
诈骗犯罪是在现代城市广泛存在的值得重视社会问题。之前的研究主要集中从社会学角度微观层次描述受害者特性，而不是从地理视角下微观层次下环境因素的角度。使用平均最近邻分析、核密度和负二项回归的方法。本文讨论了ZG市五种类型诈骗犯罪的时空分布特征，基于犯罪地理学的视角探讨了自然原因和社会经济的影响因素。
The main results are as follows: (1) Each type of fraud crime has its own characteristics of temporal distribution. However, on the whole, fraud crime takes place on workdays more than on weekends, in the afternoon and evening more than in the morning. It reaches the minimum before dawn.
主要的研究结果如下：(1)每种诈骗类型都有时间分布的特点。然而，整体上说诈骗犯罪发生在工作日多于周末，上午和下午多于早上。在黎明之前达到最小值。
(2) Similar to other urban crimes, the spatial distribution of fraud crime reveals significantly polycentric patterns that follow the trend of distance decay, and hot spots of various fraud crimes are mostly alike except minor differences. Diverse fraud crimes are mostly distributed in the old city, CBD, railway stations, bus stations, urban villages, or around colleges and universities. Each type of fraud crime shows different trends of aggregation and dispersion.
与其他城市犯罪相似，诈骗犯罪的空间分布显示出显著的多中心模式，随距离递减。各种诈骗犯罪的热点区域大多数相似的除了细小的差异。各种各样的网络犯罪大多数分布在老城区、CBD、火车站、公交站、城中村或者在高校附近。每种类型的网络诈骗呈现出不同趋势的聚合和分散。
(3) Different fraud crimes are influenced by disparate factors, but all of them are highly correlated with physical environment, such as bank branches, tourist attractions, road networks, mixed land use and college or university campuses. Moreover, house ownership, education level, age and urbanization level also have significant effects on fraud crime. The study expands the research of fraud crime to the spatial context and proves that fraud crime conforms to the theoretical assumptions of routine activity theory, which could potentially help reduce fraud.
不同的网络诈骗受不同的因素影响，都与自然环境高度相关，例如银行、旅游景点、道路网、混合用地和高校园区。除此之外，房产证、教育水平、年龄和城市化水平对于网络诈骗有显著影响。诈骗犯罪的研究与空间环境有关，符合日常活动理论的理论假设，本研究可能潜在的减少诈骗犯罪。
