A question of judgment

The economist --- July 18th 2020 edition --- Business

A question of judgment.jpg

Words

EN CN
managerial quality 管理素质;管理者的才能
precise adj. 精确的;明确的;严格的
prior belief 先验信念
sensible adj. 明智的;通情达理的;合乎情理的;意识到的,能感觉到的
discretion n. 自由裁量权;谨慎;判断力;判定;考虑周到
proportion n. 比例;部分;面积;均衡;vt. 使成比例;使均衡;分摊
innate adj. 先天的;固有的;与生俱来的
self-aware adj. 有自知之明的
breadth n. 宽度,幅度;宽宏
analogies n. 类比;类推法
irrespective adj. 不考虑的,不顾的
conscious adj. 意识到的;故意的;神志清醒的
consciously adv. 自觉地;有意识地
insight n. 洞察力;洞悉
retain vt. 保持;雇;记住
attain v. 达到,实现;获得;到达;n. 成就
cue n. 提示,暗示;线索;vt. 给…暗示
frisbee n. (投掷游戏用的)飞盘
mid-air n. 空中,悬空

Sentences

Managers, faced with tough calls like which parts of their operations to close, have not been spared.

First he had to define the word. He suggests that judgment is “the combination of personal qualities with relevant knowledge and experience to form opinions and take decisions”. And he argues that, thus defined, judgment involves a process—taking in information, deciding whom and what to trust, summarising one’s personal knowledge, checking any prior beliefs or feelings, summarising the available choices and then making the decision.At each stage, decision-makers must ask themselves questions, such as whether they have the relevant experience and expertise to make their choice, and whether the option they favour is practical.

People with judgment know when they are out of their depth in making a decision and typically then seek the advice of someone who has the right background and knowledge.

The temptation is to look at people’s track records when assessing when they have good judgment, but luck may have played a huge part. “While good judgment is important to success,” Sir Andrew cautions, “success is not a signal that there has been good judgment.”

The degree of judgment required tends to increase as people take on more responsibility. Those with routine tasks generally have limited scope for judgment.

People with good judgment tend to have a breadth of experiences and relationships that enables them to recognise parallels or analogies that others miss.The ability to be detached, both intellectually and emotionally, is also a vital component.

Others may have the wrong sort of characteristics; a tendency to ignore others, stick to rules irrespective of context, rush into action without reflection and struggle to make up their minds. Many leaders make bad judgments because they unconsciously filter the information they receive or are not sufficiently critical of what they hear or read. The danger is that people ignore insights that they don’t want to hear, a tendency that can increase with age.

As artificial intelligence gets used for more and more routine tasks in the service sector, exercising judgment may be one area where humans retain an edge over machines. This is far from certain, however. What people perceive as good judgment may stem from the ability to spot certain cues in the environment. This ability may be unconscious, just as a dog can catch a Frisbee in mid-air without knowing how to calculate wind speed and air resistance.

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