Climate change and the Nile Flood and famine

气候变化与尼罗河洪水和饥荒 

本文由 缤纷英语翻译组--经济学人小组

朱红翻译/杨杨审核 

The countries in the Nile basin will suffer if they do not learn to co-operate如果尼罗河流域的国家不学会合作，它们将遭受苦难  

TO THE untrained eye, the satellite photos of north-west Ethiopia on July 10th may have seemed benign. They showed a relatively small pool of water next to an enormous building site on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile river. But the project under construction is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is more than halfway complete. And the water is why it is so controversial. 

在一般人看来，卫星于7月10日拍下的埃塞俄比亚西北部照片呈现出一片祥和景象。这些照片显示在尼罗河的主要支流——青尼罗河上的一个巨大建筑物旁边，有一片相对较小的水域。但是在建的这个项目是埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝，该工程已完工大半。这片水域便是这座大坝备受争议的原因。 

Since Ethiopia announced its plan to build the dam, it has inspired threats of sabotage from Egypt, which sits downstream and relies on the Nile for electricity, farming and drinking water. Egypt claims that it is entitled to a certain proportion of the Nile’s water based on colonial-era treaties. Ethiopia dismisses those agreements. The pool of water in the photos suggested that it was beginning to fill the reservoir behind the dam, reducing the river’s flow. 

自从埃塞俄比亚宣布其建造这座大坝的计划以来，埃及对埃塞俄比亚发出了进行破坏活动的威胁，因为埃及坐落于河流下游，其电力、农业和饮用水都来源自尼罗河。埃及宣称根据殖民时期协议，自己有权使用一部分的尼罗河水，但是埃塞俄比亚对那些协议不予理会。照片中的水域表明埃塞俄比亚正开始向位于大坝后面的水库注水，河水流量随之减少。  

That turns out not to have been the case. The pool was deemed by Egypt to be a result of construction and seasonal Nile flooding. But the alarms it raised are indicative of how sensitive negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have become. Talks over such things as how fast to fill the reservoir and how to operate the dam have stumbled.And a potentially huge complication looms over any discussion of the Nile’s future: climate change. By 2050 around a billion people will live in the countries through which the Nile and its tributaries flow. That alone will put enormous stress on the water supply. But according to a study by Mohamed Siam and Elfatih Eltahir of MIT, potential changes to the river’s flow, resulting from climate change, may add to the strain. Messrs Siam and Eltahir conclude that on current trends the annual flow could increase, on average, by up to 15%. That may seem like a good thing, but it could also grow more variable, by 50%. In other words, there would be more (and worse) floods and droughts. 

但是之前的情况并非如此。埃及认为这片水域是工程建设和尼罗河的季节性洪水造成的。然而这片水域引起了不安，这表明埃及、埃塞俄比亚和苏丹之间的协商已成为一个敏感问题。就向水库注水的速度、管理大坝的方式等问题进行的谈判进行得并不顺利。而且一个潜在的大难题困扰着所有关于尼罗河未来的讨论，这个难题就是气候变化。截止到2050年，大约会有十亿人口居住在尼罗河及其支流流域内，光这一点就足以给供水造成极大的压力。但是麻省理工学院的穆罕默德·暹罗和Elfatih Eltahir进行的一项研究表明，气候变化导致的潜在河水流量变化或许会加剧供水紧张问题。暹罗和Eltahir先生总结道，按照当前的趋势，每年水流量的平均增量可能会高达15%。这看上去似乎很好，但是现实中的变化可能会更大：平均增量可能会达到50%。换句话说，洪水和旱灾发生的次数会变多，情况也会更加严重。 

be indicative of

【释义】表示，表明

【例句】Their failure to act is indicative of their lack of interest.他们未采取行动，这表示他们没有兴趣。

【派生词】

indicate v. 表明，显示

 loom over

【释义】笼罩，困扰

【例句】Meanwhile, the debt incurred during the bubble continues to loom over an economy that has yet to find a new growth strategy.与此同时，泡沫时期欠下的债务继续笼罩这个目前尚未找到新的经济增长战略的国家。

The threat of closure looms over the workforce.工厂可能关闭，令工人们焦虑不安。   

There is, of course, uncertainty in the projections, not least because differing global climate models give different numbers. But the idea that the flow of the Nile is likely to become more variable is lent credibility, the authors argue, by the fact that trends over decades seem to agree with them, and by consideration of the effects of El Niño. These colossal climatic oscillations, driven by changes in the temperature of the Pacific, are correlated with the Nile’s flow, and climate-change studies suggesting more extreme El Niño in years to come thus bolster the idea of a more variable Nile.

 当然，这些预测具有不确定性，尤其是因为不断变化的全球气候模式导致了很多变数。但是研究者认为，过去数十年间的趋势似乎与他们的想法一致，同时，考虑到厄尔尼诺的影响，所以尼罗河的水流量会更加多变这一观点具有可信度。这些由太平洋的温度变化引起的巨大气候变化与尼罗河的水流量相关，而气候变化研究表明未来会发生更多极端厄尔尼诺现象，所以这支撑了尼罗河情况会更加多变的观点。 

not least

【释义】especially 特别；尤其

【例句】The documentary caused a lot of bad feeling, not least among the workers whose lives it described.那部纪录片引起了许多人的反感，尤其是在片中描写到其生活的工人。 

be lent credibility /lend credibility to sth

【释义】给…增添可信度，使…更为可信

【例句】Saving more than the expenditures will itself lend credibility to your maturity status. 存的比花的多毫无疑问是你成熟的最可靠标志。

【拓展】lend support, weight, credence, etc. to sthto make sth seem more likely to be true or genuine 对…提供支持（或强有力的证据、可靠性等使看起来更真实）

① This latest evidence lends support to her theory.这一最新的证据更加印证了她的理论。

② Historical evidence lends credence to his theory.史学根据使他的理论更为可信。   

More storage capacity will be needed to smooth out the Nile’s flow. But unlike Egypt’s large Aswan Dam, which was built with storage in mind, the new Ethiopian one is designed for electricity production. Once water starts gushing through its turbines, it is expected to produce over 6,000 megawatts of power. It is unclear, though, if the structure has the necessary flexibility to meet downstream demands in periods of prolonged drought. The talks between the three countries seem to be glossing over the potential effects of climate change. The filling of the reservoir is being negotiated in terms of years, but nature may not co-operate with their timeline. The countries would be better off focusing on how much water is needed downstream, which will vary in wet and dry years, say experts. Similar considerations will need be taken into account when running the dam. “Nowhere in the world are two such large dams on the same river operated without close co-ordination,” says another study from MIT. But so far co-operation is in short supply. The latest round of talks has been postponed. Even the methodology of impact studies is cause for wrangling.  

我们需要利用更大的蓄水能力来调节尼罗河的水流量。但是这一大坝与埃及的阿斯旺大坝不同，人们在建造阿斯旺大坝之时就想到了其蓄水能力，但是埃塞俄比亚的新建大坝的设计初衷是为了发电。一旦河水开始涌过大坝里的涡轮机，这预计会产生超过6,000兆瓦的电力。但是，现在仍有一点不确定，即这一构造在长期干旱的时期是否有必需的灵活性来满足下游地区的需求。三国之间的谈判似乎忽视了气候变化的潜在影响。他们正从长期角度出发，协商向水库注水这一问题，但是大自然可能不会配合他们的计划。专家表示，如果三国把注意力放在下游地区需要的水量上，他们的情况可能会比较乐观，而下游需水量在涝年和旱年的情况又是不尽相同的。在使用大坝的过程中，我们也需要考虑到类似的问题。“这么大的两座大坝建在同一条河流上，且运行时彼此之间没有密切的协作，这在全世界是绝无仅有的，”麻省理工学院的另一项研究表示。但是到现在为止，它们之间仍缺少合作。最新的一轮谈判已经延后。哪怕是研究影响的方法都会引起他们之间的争执。

 gloss over sth

【释义】to avoid talking about sth unpleasant or embarrassing by not dealing with it in detail 掩饰；掩盖；把…搪塞过去

【例句】He glossed over any splits in the party.他掩饰了党内出现的任何分裂现象。

The documentary glossed over some important issues.这部电影搜集了大量翔实的资料，但是它却绕开了一些重要的问题。

【情境】

①我和一个好朋友一起出去旅行，整个旅程差强人意。回来之后，别人问我们玩儿得如何。还没等我张口，我那快人快语的朋友抢先说我们的旅程多精彩，看到的景色多迷人，没有一句不好，没有一点抱怨。She chose to gloss over all of them.

②美国的教育制度时常受到称赞，美国的大学也是国际学生们出国深造的首选，不过，美国大学的学费也贵得可以。在这里，学生贷款负债平均值达到10万甚至20万美元，但是，universities don't include those numbers on their web sites. They conveniently gloss over these shocking statistics! 大学不会把这些数字发在他们的网站上，他们很“方便”地忽略了这些统计数据 

 Once the dam is up and running, the Nile’s variability will be controllable for some 60 years, say Messrs Siam and Eltahir. That assumes the dam is flexible enough and that the countries work together. Even then, storage would have to be increased by about 45% to keep things steady for the next 60 years. So the countries have time to build new dams; but that will need even greater co-operation. 暹罗和Eltahir表示，一旦大坝建成投入使用，尼罗河的变化在大约60年的时间里都会在控制范围内。这一说法建立在该大坝具有足够的灵活性且各国之间能够合作的假设之上。即使到了那个时候，大坝的蓄水能力也必须增加约45%以保持之后60年的稳定。所以这些国家有足够的时间建造新的大坝，但是这需要进一步的合作。