Lesson 14-1 The Butterfly Effect
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see. The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.
forecast /ˈfɔːrkæst/ 预测;预报
speculative /ˈspekjələtɪv/ 投机的;猜测的;推测的;
thunderstorm /ˈθʌndərstɔːrm/ 雷暴;雷雨
blizzard /ˈblɪzərd/ 暴风雪;雪暴;
deteriorate /dɪˈtɪriəreɪt/ 恶化;退化;变坏
multiply /ˈmʌltɪplaɪ/ 成倍增加;迅速增加， 乘以;乘;(使)繁殖，增殖;
cascade /kæˈskeɪd/ 瀑布似的落下;大量落下， 倾泻，流注 <电>级; 级联, 串联;一连串;大量;
upward /ˈʌpwərd/ 向上的;(数量、价格)上升的，上涨的
turbulent /ˈtɜːrbjələnt/ 动荡的;混乱的;湍动的;汹涌的;
feature /ˈfiːtʃər/ 特征;特点;特色
dust devil 小尘暴、尘旋风
squall /skwɔːl/ 暴风
continent-size 和整块大陆一样大的
eddy /ˈedi/ 涡流;旋涡;
grid /ɡrɪd/ (地图上的)坐标方格; 网格
of the order of 大约
sensor /ˈsensər/ 传感器
interval /ˈɪntərvl/ 间隔
