2025-08-07读纳瓦尔有感--to be or not to be这是你的选择

Dec 3 2021

Free Markets Provide the Best Feedback自由市场提供最佳反馈

The alternative is feedback from whomever has the most guns选择来自拥有最多枪支弹药的人

纳瓦尔: 马克·安德森 (Marc Andreessen) 将此很好地总结为“强烈的意见,松散地持有”。

Naval: Marc Andreessen summarizes this nicely as “strong opinions, loosely held.

作为一个社会,如果你寻求真理,你希望有强烈的意见,但不强制拥有。你想尝试一下,看看它们是否有效,如果它们不起作用,就进行纠正。

As a society, if you’re truth-seeking, you want to have strong opinions but very loosely held. You want to try them, see if they work, and then error-correct if they don’t.

但相反,我们得到的要么是:强烈持有的强烈意见——这是不宽容的少数人;要么是:松散持有的弱意见——这是一种妥协的模式,没有人真正承担责任,没有人得到信誉,没有人可以尝试他们想要的做事方式,每个人都依赖“真正的共产主义没有被尝试过”。即使在这种情况下,真正的共产主义已经被尝试过,只是效果不佳而已。

But instead what we get is either strong opinions strongly held—which is the intolerant minority—or we get weak opinions loosely held—which is this compromised model where no one really takes the blame, no one gets credit, no one gets to try the way that they want to, and everybody can then fall back on, “Real communism hasn’t been tried.” Although, in that case, real communism has been tried; it just hasn’t worked out well.

题外话,我听到人们常抱怨的是,“我们需要转向一个后资本主义世界,资本主义行不通”。好吧,你的选择是什么?通常这是人们开始摸索的地方,因为没有太多选择。

As a digression, one of the common critiques I hear people say is, “We need to move to a post-capitalist world. Capitalism isn’t working.” OK, what is your alternative? Usually this is where people start fumbling because there aren’t a lot of choices.

当你试图弄清楚如何分配信用、分配资源和奖励人们的工作时,你有两个选择:来自自由市场和现实的反馈——最好的方式是通过钱——或来自人们的反馈,这就是共产主义的最终结果,即一群人认为你做得最好。

When you’re trying to figure out how to divvy up credit, divvy up resources and reward people for their work, you have two choices: feedback from free markets and reality—and the best model for that is money—or feedback from people, which is where communism ends up, which is a group of people who decide that you did the best work.

现在,谁认为你做得最好?必须有人负责做这件事,其者最终成为领袖。

Now, who decides you did the best work? Someone has to be in charge of doing that, and invariably that ends up being the biggest thug.

我不认为每个共产主义国家都堕落为独裁政权是偶然的。共产主义似乎从来都不是由分散的大多数人真正掌管的,它最终总是由一群掌权的人掌管。

I don’t think that it’s an accident that every communist country degenerates into a dictatorship. Communism never seems to actually be run by a distributed majority of the people. It always ends up being run by a bunch of people who are taking charge.

这是人类的天性,如果我决定谁获得金牌,它将归我的朋友、家人和我喜欢的人所有。而最终总会发生这样的事情。

It’s just human nature that if I get to decide who gets the gold, it’s going to go to my friends, family and the people that I like. And that’s invariably what ends up happening.

要么你需要一个客观函数来分割它——而金钱是已知的有这个功能的工具——要么它变得完全是主观的。如果它是主观的,那么谁能说你而不是我来分割它呢?我们只是根据谁拥有更多的wuzhuang力量,谁拥有更多的gun(wuqi)来决定。

Either you need an objective function to carve it up—and money is the known objective function—or it becomes all subjective. And if it’s subjective, then who’s to say you’re carving it up instead of me? We’re just going to decide based on who has more physical force, who has more guns.

布雷特: 我们站在自由市场这边的说辞是,我们已经在决策过程中把威胁考虑进去了。没有人会被迫购买服务或达成协议。

Brett:What we say on the side of free markets is that we’ve extracted coercion out of that decision-making process. No one is forced into purchasing a service or undertaking an agreement.

唯一一次使用武力是政府介入时。然后,高层的人会说,“这是最好的决定,你必须同意它,否则,就会有一个戴着徽章、拿着枪的人出现在你家门口”。

The only time that force is applied is when the government gets involved. The people at the top then say, “This is the best decision and you will have to agree with it; otherwise, there’s going to be a man with a badge and a gun turning up at your door.”

当谈到自由市场时,我们所说的只是个人可以在不受胁迫的情况下做出决定。现在,我可能是错的,但他们为什么不尝试犯错误呢?这是取得进步的唯一途径。

All that we’re saying when it comes to the free market is that the individual gets to decide without being coerced. Now, I could be wrong, but why shouldn’t they try and make mistakes? It’s the only way to make progress.

纠正错误的唯一方法是去做去尝试其他方法。

The only way to error-correct is to actually try something else.

马丽:我们每天做的不计其数的大大小小的有意识无意识的选择,以为是自己做出的正确选择,真实情况是:它们是我们在无意识中被社会中掌握权利和资源的思想和意志等所影响而做出的选择,这些影响来自日常潜移默化的媒体、书本、互联网、或其它我们生活中可以接触到的各种工具,我们以为是我们自己做出的决定,实际只是在别人画出的ABCD选项中做出的别人规划好的选择。而想进步,唯一的方法,是尝试EFG选项,去尝试去做,去成为一个开拓者、引领者。这很考验人,既能经得住人性和天道的考验、也要能经受得住普世衡量工具金钱的挑战,不走寻常路,或许也能取得普世认可的金钱,袋袋平安。

To be, or not to be: that is the question,

Whether it's nobler in the mind to suffer

The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,

Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,

And by opposing end them. To die,to sleep;

No more; and by a sleep to say we end

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