英文早读第211篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
The homestate operation was disappointing in 1978. Our unsatisfactory underwriting, even though partially explained by an unusual incidence of Midwestern storms, is particularly worrisome against the backdrop of very favorable industry results in the conventional lines written by our homestate group. We have confidence in John Ringwalt's ability to correct this situation. The bright spot in the group was the performance of Kansas Fire and Casualty in its first full year of business. Under Floyd Taylor, this subsidiary got off to a truly remarkable start. Of course, it takes at least several years to evaluate underwriting results, but the early signs are encouraging and Floyd's operation achieved the best loss ratio among the homestate companies in 1978.
1978年州内保险业务令人失望。我们令人不满意的承保，即使部分可以解释由于中西部不同寻常的风暴频率，当考虑到在我们州内保险集团常规业务线非常好的行业结果的背景下，尤其令人担忧。我们有信心约翰零怀特有能力改变这个情况。集团闪光点事堪萨斯火灾和意外险公司在第一个业务完整年度的业绩。在弗洛伊德泰勒的领导下，这个子公司取得真正值得称赞的开端。当然，还需要至少几年来评估承保结果，但是早期迹象是令人鼓舞的，弗洛伊德的运营在1978年州内保险公司中实现了最佳赔付率。
Although some segments were disappointing, overall our insurance operation had an excellent year. But of course we should expect a good year when the industry is flying high, as in 1978. It is virtual certainly that in 1979 the combined ratio (see definition on page 31) for the industry will move up at least a few points, perhaps enough to throw the industry as a whole into an underwriting loss position. For example, in the auto lines - by far the most important area for the industry and for us - CPI figures indicate rates overall were only 3% higher in January 1979 than a year ago. But the items that make up loss costs - auto repair and medical care costs - were up over 9%. How different than yearend 1976 when rates had advanced over 22% in the preceding twelve months, but costs were up 8%.
尽管有些部分令人失望，整的来说我们的保险业务这一年是出色的。但是我们当然应该在行业走高时预期会有个好的年份，正如1978年一样。也很确定在1979年行业的综合赔付率将会至少上升几个点，或许足够使行业整体处于承保亏损的位置。例如，在车险业务线，到目前位置对行业以及我们最重要的部分，CPI指数表明指数整体在1979年1月比一年前仅增长3%。但是这一项使赔付成本增加，汽车维修和医疗费用增长超过9%。这和1976年末是多么不同，那是CPI在之后12个月上涨超过22%，但是成本仅上涨8%。
Margins will remain steady only if rates rise as fast as costs. This assuredly will not be the case in 1979, and conditions probably will worsen in 1980. Our present thinking is that our underwriting performance relative to the industry will improve somewhat in 1979, but every other insurance management probably views its relative prospects with similar optimism - someone is going to be disappointed. Even if we do improve relative to others, we may well have a higher combined ratio and lower underwriting profits in 1979 than we achieved last year.
只有当费率和成本增长同样快时，利润率才将会保持稳定。这肯定不会在1979年发生，情况在1980年或许将会更糟糕。我们现在认为我们的承保业绩相比于行业将会在1979年有所提升，但是其它每一家保险机构或许都同样乐观持有相同观点——有些机构结果将会失望。即使我们确实相比于别人有所提高，我们或许也同样会在1979年相比于上一年有更高的综合赔率和更低的承保利润。
37.worrisome：令人担心的；使人担忧的
38.backdrop：背景；背景幕布
39.conventional：常规的；传统的
40.assuredly：肯定；一定
