巴菲特1972年度信(二)。2025-01-07

英文早读第175篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

Textile Operations
纺织业务

As predicted in last year's annual report, the textile industry experienced a pickup in 1972. In recent years, Ken Chace and Ralph Rigby have developed an outstanding sales organization enjoying a growing reputation for service and reliability. Manufacturing capabilities have been restructured to complement our sales strengths.
正如在去年年度报告中预测的,纺织行业在1972年有所好转。在最近这些年,肯蔡司和拉夫莱戈比已经建立了一个杰出的销售组织,在服务与可依赖方面的赞誉不断提升。制造能力也被重构用来满足我们的销售优势。

Helped by the industry recovery, we experienced some payoff from these efforts in 1972. Inventories were controlled, minimizing close-out losses in addition to minimizing capital requirements; product mix was greatly improved. While the general level of profitability of the industry will always be the primary factor in determining the level of our textile earnings, we believe that our relative position within the industry has noticeably improved. The outlook for 1973 is good.
受益于行业复苏,我们也在1972年收到了来自于这些努力的益处。存货是可控的,除了最小化资金需求外清仓损失也降到了最低;产品组合也大幅提升。尽管行业的一般盈利水平经常是决定我们纺织业务盈利水平的首要因素,我们仍相信我们在行业内的相对地位已经明显提升了。对1973年的预期是良好的。

Insurance Underwriting
保险承保

Our exceptional underwriting profits during 1972 in the large traditional area of our insurance business at National Indemnity present a paradox. They served to swell substantially total corporate profits for 1972, but the factors which produced such profits induced exceptional amounts of new competition at what we believe to be a non-compensatory level of rates. Over-all, we probably would have retained better prospects for the next five years if profits had not risen so dramatically this year.
我们1972年在国家保障公司的大型传统领域保险业务杰出承保利润呈现的很矛盾。他们1972年为公司整体盈利承担了很大一部分,但是导致这些利润的因素引起了大量新竞争对手,我们相信他们给出了无法实现赔付能力水平的费率。整的来说,如果利润去年没有增长这么大,我们或许仍对接下来五年保持更好的预期。

Substantial new competition was forecast in our annual report for last year and we experienced in 1972 the decline in premium volume that we stated such competition implied. Our belief is that industry underwriting profit margins will narrow substantially in 1973 or 1974 and, in time, this may produce an environment in which our historical growth can be resumed. Unfortunately, there is a lag between deterioration of underwriting results and tempering of competition. During this period we expect to continue to have negative volume comparisons in our traditional operation. Our seasoned management, headed by Jack Ringwalt and Phil Liesche, will continue to underwrite to produce a profit, although not at the level of 1972, and base our rates on long-term expectations rather than short-term hopes. Although this approach has meant dips in volume from time to time in the past, it has produced excellent long-term results.
去年年度报告中我们预测大量新对手,和当面临这些竞争时我们会在1972年面临保险规模下跌。我们相信行业承保利润率在1973或者1974年会大幅缩小,最后,这或许会带来一个我们历史增值率重新恢复的环境。不幸的是,在承保结果恶化和竞争缓和之间存在时间差。在这段时期,我们预期继续在我们的传统业务规模上不利。我们由杰克令怀特和菲尔莱舍尔带领的富有经验的管理团队将继续产生承保利润,尽管不如1972年的水平,但仍会让我们的费率基于长期预期而不是短期诉求。尽管在过去这条路意味着时不时地规模下跌,但他仍会产生优秀的长期结果。

Also as predicted in last year's report, our reinsurance division experienced many of the same competitive factors in 1972. A multitude of new organizations entered what has historically been a rather small field, and rates were often cut substantially, and we believe unsoundly, particularly in the catastrophe area. The past year turned out to be unusually free of catastrophes and our underwriting experience was good.
同样如去年报告中预期的,我们的再保险业务在1972年经历了很多同样的竞争因素。大量的新组织进入了这个历史上一直是相对小的领域,费率也经常被大幅减小,我们认为是荒谬的,尤其是在灾难险领域。去年结果很不寻常的没有灾难发生,我们的承保结果是好的。

George Young has built a substantial and profitable reinsurance operation in just a few years. In the longer term we plan to be a very major factor in the reinsurance field, but an immediate expansion of volume is not sensible against a backgroud of deteriorating rates. In our view, underwriting exposures are greater than ever. When the loss potential inherent in such exposures becomes an actuality, repricing will take place which should give us a chance to expand significantly.
乔治杨在仅仅几年时间就建立了一个大型的盈利的再保险业务。长期来看我们计划成为再保险领域的非常大玩家,但是保险规模立即扩张是不明智的,在费率衰退的背景下。在我们看来,承保暴雷风险比过去大得多。当隐藏在这些雷点潜在的损失变为现实时,重新定价将会发生,这会让我们有机会大幅扩张。

8.pickup:改善;改进;好转
9.reputation:名誉;名声
10.payoff:报酬;结果;结清;算清
11.in addition to:除了……之外
12.noticeably:明显地;显著地
13.paradox:悖论;矛盾的人事物
14.swell:膨胀;增大;扩大;隆起
15.induce:诱导;引起;诱使
16.compensatory:补偿的;赔偿的;补偿性的
17.in time:及时;最后;终于;迟早
18.resumed:(中断后)继续;重新开始;恢复
19.lag:滞后;落后;间隔
20.deterioration:恶化;退化
21.temper:使温和;使缓和
22.seasoned:老练的;富有经验的
23.dip:(通常指暂时的)减少;下降;衰退
24.from time to time:不时地;偶尔
25.multitude:群众;众多;大量;人群;民众
26.unsoundly:谬误的
27.close-out:清仓

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