Why Your New Year Resolutions Are Not Working （不要再次辜负你的新年愿望）

Tradition dictates that each new year is anopportunity for self –improvement. Perhaps you have designated 2017 as theannus mirabilis in which you will finally become thinner, fitter or richer. Inwhich case, you are likely to end the year with much the same midriff, vigourand bank balance as you had in 2016.

New year’s resolutions are not to beundertaken lightly – and certainly should not be popped out on December 31 withthe same abandon as champagne corks. That is because they are about behaviourchange, which is a difficult feat to pull off at any time of the year.

It is hard to pluck out a reliable figureabout the proportion of people who stick to their good intentions, but onesurvey of more than 2,000 people found that 56 per cent do not.

This should not be surprising. We have allhad ample opportunity over the past 12 months to reflect on our shortcomings,with few of us managing to achieve desirable change earlier. Why this inertiashould suddenly dissolve in January has always puzzled me, which is why my newyear’s resolution is usually not to make any.

It is not that my life does not requirebetterment – but, to a certain degree, I lack willpower. It is this preciouscommodity that is seen as key to whether the resolutions made on January 1 areadhered to.

Permanently overcoming my sweet tooth wouldbe a resolution doomed to failure. Instead, I try to occasionally eschew abiscuit with my morning coffee. From such modest ambitions are minor triumphsfashioned.

Psychologists have long thought willpowerwas a finite resource that should be expended judiciously, on life’s mostimportant challenges. Newer studies, however, are less confident about thisassertion, implying that we may possess the capacity to be strong – willed inall aspects of life, from diet and health through to jobs and relationships.

Willpower, or self-discipline, is alsooften likened to a muscle – the debate is really whether the muscle isstrengthened, or fatigued, by regular use.

The idea that willpower is a capacity withlimits originates in classic studies that give participants two successivechallenges, both of which require willpower, for example resisting deliciousfoods. Very generally, people seem to struggle more on the second task-anobservation that has been traditionally explained away by the first taskdraining the willpower tank.

What the scientists say

In 2015, Dr Evan Carter from the Universityof Miami challenged this wisdom by narrowing his meta-analysis down to onlythose studies using well-established willpower tasks, and also trawling theliterature for unpublished studies using well-established studies. (This gets aroundthe phenomenon of publication bias, in which novel or positive results findtheir way into print but null or negative results, which are just as enlightening,are buried.)

Dr Carter’s analysis, which also hints atthe possibility that self-control gets better with practice, puts him at oddswith Roy Baumeister, perhaps currently the best-known psychologist in thewillpower field. Professor Baumeister, at Florida State University, believesself-control diminishes as blood glucose levels drop and the brain runs low onenergy.

Even if the science of willpower seems opaque,psychology at Scranton University, Pennsylvania, and the author of Changeology,contends that there are five stages to behaviour change : precontemplation,contemplation, precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action and maintenance.

What works?

I asked Professor Norcross for his threetop tips to Financial al Times readers embarking on resolutions. His first recommendationis to track progress, on the basis that behaviours that are measured are morelikely to improve, via reminders and minders and rewards.

Second, he says, adapt your environment. Myinterpretation: if you want to rein in spending, don’t go to a casino. Afterall, cues are all around us, prompting us subconsciously to behave in certainways. As Prof Norcross puts it: “Trigger healthy behaviours by hanging with prudentpeople, places and things.” For me, it means not having biscuits in the house.

His final tip? Expect to mess up. It mayeven help: “One of our research studies showed that 71 per cent of successfulresolvers said their first slip had actually strengthened their efforts-theylearnt from the mistake and recommitted.”

Psychologists haven’t completely corneredthe market: economists can offer wisdom on behavioural change too. One of my favouritestrategies is embodied by the websitewww.stickk.com. It was co-founded by yaleacademics Dean Karlan and Ian Ayres, among others, and relies on two brutalbehavioural truths: people do not like losing money (loss aversion), and theyare likely to behave better when others are looking.

A person signing up to a “commitment contract”– such as keeping weight below a certain threshold – must agree to have it policedby a referee, and to forfeit a financial penalty if he or she falters. Sendingforfeited cash to an “undeserving” recipient – for example, an overweight Trumpsupporter pledging money to the Clinton Foundation if the pounds don’t budge –is a particularly effective insurance policy against misdemeanour. The websiteclaims to triple the chances of people fulfilling their promises.

If I really wanted to conquer the biscuitblight, I would probably try something along those lines: maybe a fiver for everyfurtive Hob Nob, with the proceeds going to the Kardashians. But I have got aleftover Christmas assortment to get through first.

词汇总结

annus mirabilis    奇迹迭出之年，令人惊异之年，震撼大地之年

Tradition dictates that each new year is anopportunity for self-improvement. Perhaps you have designated 2017 as the annusmirabilis in which you will finally become thinner, fitter or richer.

Bank balance   银行存款，银行存款余额

In which case, you are likely to end the yearwith much the same midriff, vigour and bank balance as you had in 2016.

Pluck out   拔出

It is hard to pluck out a reliable figure aboutthe proportion of people who stick to their good intentions, but one survey ofmore than 2,000 people found that 56 per cent do not.

Rein in   控制，放慢，止住

My interpretation: if you want to rein in spending,don’t go to a casino.

Loss aversion   损失厌恶，损失规避

It relies on two brutal behavioural truths:people do not like losing money(loss aversion), and they are likely to behavebetter when others are looking.