Nov 12 2021
Aliens Might Just Be Too Far Away 外星人可能太远了
We may not be alone in the universe, just too far apart 人类可能并不孤单，只是相距太远了
布雷特： 我们仍然存在一个问题，即 DNA 在大约 2.5 亿年的时间里做了什么——地球上生命存在的绝大部分历史中。为什么在那段时间里它根本没有进化？这是怎么回事？
Brett: We still have this problem of what DNA was doing for that approximately two and a half billion years—the overwhelming majority of the history of life on Earth. Why didn’t it evolve at all during that time? What’s going on?
有一本书，彼得·沃德（Peter Ward）和唐纳德·布朗利（Donald Brownlee）合著的《稀土》（Rare Earth），这些人谈论了地球进化史上发生的所有古怪的事情。我只是挑选了一个事实，即我们这些通用解释者似乎是偶然进化来的，似乎只有一次;但你可以回顾过去会发现，从单细胞细菌进化到多细胞生物是奇怪和不寻常的，并且无法在实验室环境中重现。
There’s a book,Rare Earth, by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee, and these guys talk about all the quirky things that happened in the evolutionary history of the Earth. I just picked on the fact that we universal explainers evolved seemingly fortuitously, seemingly once; but you can go back and realize that evolving from single-cell bacteria to a multicellular organism was weird and unusual and hasn’t been able to be repeated in a laboratory setting.
然后从多细胞生物体到像植物的东西，然后到像动物一样的东西——这每一件事似乎都是因为我们无法理解的原因而产生的。
Then to go from the multicellular organism to something that’s like a plant and then something that’s like an animal—each of these things seems to have occurred for reasons that we don’t understand.
纳瓦尔：可能发生了很多事情，论点可以是统计性的，而不是绝对的。在宇宙中，我们可能并不孤单，但成为普世解释者可能非常罕见，以至于当你开始将其乘以相当遥远的星际距离时，我们可能相距太远了。
Naval:There could be a combination of things going on. Your argument can be statistical rather than absolute. We may not be alone in the universe, but becoming universal explainers might be so rare that when you start multiplying that by interstellar distances, which are quite vast, we might just be too far apart.
我认为费米还有一个不合理的假设，即星际外星人会想出如何超越光速，而我们对这怎么做到的没有任何想法。在如何超越光速的领域中，我们甚至没有一些模糊的想法。
I think Fermi also had the unreasonable assumption that interstellar aliens would figure out how to get past the speed of light, when we have no hypothesis whatsoever as to how that might be possible. We have nothing even vaguely in the category of how to get past the speed of light.
因此，如果你受到光速的限制，并且很少跳跃到通用解释者思维 ，那么可能由于双方相距太远了，可能需要更长的时间去缩小距离。
So if you’re limited by the speed of light, and if the jump to universal explainers is rare, then we might just be too far apart. And it might just take a lot longer.
宇宙非常大，但也几乎完全是空的，至少就行星和恒星而言是这样。所以，说人类和类人解释者非常罕见仍然是相当合理的;它们在宇宙中仍处于形成的早期阶段;而且它们只是分散在如此遥远的距离上，以至于我们从未遇到过彼此。
The universe is very big, but it’s also almost entirely empty, at least as far as planets and the stars are concerned. Given that, it’s still quite reasonable to say that humans and human-like explainers are quite rare; they’re still early in their formation across the universe; and they’re just spread out by such incredibly vast distances that we haven’t encountered each other.
如果我们真的遇到了对方，我想我们会知道的。If we did encounter each other, I think we’d know.
例如，当外星飞船到达这里时，它们的无线电波早就到达了。在一个文明的历史上，有一段相当长的时期，它发明了收音机并开始广播无线电波，然后它发明了星际旅行，它将火箭和文明发送到宇宙中。
For example, by the time an alien spacecraft got here, their radio waves would have arrived long before. There’s a pretty long period in a civilization’s history when it invents the radio and starts to broadcast radio waves out, before it invents interstellar travel and it’s sending rockets and civilizations around the universe.
马丽：一切的思想能想到的存在都是可能得，宇宙很大、历史很长，但人类的认知有限，只要是人类能想到、觉知到的，它们都是存在的。未来一切皆有可能，对世界充满好奇，以一个确定未知客观存在的认知，去拥抱这个宇宙的一切不确定性。
