Total media ad spending worldwide will rise 7.4% to $628.63 billion in 2018. Digital media will account for 43.5% of investments, thanks to rising global ecommerce spending and shifting viewership from traditional TV to digital channels. By 2020, digital’s share of total advertising will near 50%.
Mobile will be the big winner, garnering 67.3% of digital and 29.2% of total media advertising this year. Driven by rising demand, advertiser competition and escalating ad prices, mobile’s share of total spending will rise to 41.9% by 2022.
At $210.43 billion, Asia-Pacific will account for 33.5% of worldwide ad spending. And it will be the fastest-growing region, with its 10.7% growth rate driven largely by China, which has 45.5% of the regional ad market.
Ad spending in Latin America will grow 8.7% to $38.04 billion in 2018. Several markets in the region are facing economic challenges, but key elections in these countries and the FIFA World Cup (hosted in Russia) will keep the ad market buoyant.
North America will remain the world’s largest market, at $232.48 billion, a 6.6% rise from 2017. The region’s 37.0% share of global media spend will be fueled by its mobile ad market.
Ad spending in Western Europe will reach $104.57 billion this year on a growth rate of 2.8%. New countries to eMarketer’s ad spending forecast are Austria and Switzerland, which together will account for 8.7% of ad spending in Western Europe.
WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes eMarketer’s updated forecast for worldwide total media ad spending, digital ad spending, digital ad spending by format and mobile internet ad spending, broken out by region and country. The projections run through 2022. The full data set for this forecast can be found in this report’s accompanying spreadsheet.
KEY STAT: Digital ad spending worldwide will total $273.29 billion this year, a 17.7% increase over 2017. Digital’s share of spending will surpass traditional channels with a 52.1% share by 2021.
Worldwide Ad Spending Overview
Asia-Pacific and North America will account for 70.5% of the $628.63 billion global ad spend this year. Healthy consumer spending in those regions, along with the FIFA World Cup, will spur worldwide ad growth of 7.4% in 2018.
Global media spending will grow steadily at more than 5.0% per year through 2022. Despite political and economic concerns in several markets, increasing digital ad business will sustain overall advertising gains.
North America will remain the top advertising market in 2018 at $232.48 billion and a 37.0% share of worldwide total media. Asia-Pacific will place second in regional media spend with $210.43 billion and one-third of global ad business.
We had previously forecast Asia-Pacific to surpass North America in ad spend by 2019. That will not happen due to a combination of stronger-than-expected 2017 growth in North America and currency depreciation against the US dollar. But the trend is inexorable, and we now expect Asia-Pacific to become the leading ad spend market in 2022.
We have increased all ad spending figures for nearly all regions since our previous forecast, except Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa. The primary contributing factor being depreciation in currency exchange rates against the US dollar.
eMarketer’s complete estimates for worldwide ad spending can be found in this report’s accompanying spreadsheet.
Worldwide Digital Ad Spending
In 2018, global digital media ad spending will grow at more than double the rate of total media, rising 17.7% to $273.29 billion. Digital will double the growth rate of total media advertising through 2020 and drive overall ad gains. Between now and 2022, digital will expand its share of paid media from 43.5% to 53.9%.
The disparity in growth rate between digital and traditional media will hold true in every region. While each region’s digital media market is at differing levels of maturity, increasing advertiser competition—especially for ecommerce shoppers and buyers—will drive digital spend.
North America will account for $112.91 billion and 41.3% of global digital media spend. Asia-Pacific’s digital ad market will be $96.78 billion, a 35.4% share of paid digital media worldwide. We had earlier forecast that Asia-Pacific would surpass North America in digital ad spending by 2019. We no longer expect this to happen, for the same reasons mentioned in the section on total media spending.
Digital media’s share of total ad expenditures will be highest in North America at 48.6%, followed closely by Asia-Pacific at 46.0%. Digital’s share will be comparable in Central and Eastern Europe and Western Europe at 41.2% and 39.6%, respectively. Laggards will be Latin America at 26.3% and the Middle East and Africa at 18.6%.
Worldwide Mobile Ad Spending
Nearly 3 billion people, or 39.4% of the global population, will use a mobile phone for internet access this year. Mobile advertising products have scaled to meet this demand and generated significant advertiser competition.
Escalating ad prices will push global mobile spending to increase 28.4% to $183.83 billion. Mobile ad spending—which includes spending on search and display advertisements served to mobile phones and tablets, but excludes SMS, MMS and peer-to-peer (P2P) messaging-based ads—will have double-digit growth through 2022, reaching $332.50 billion.
Mobile’s share of digital ad spend will reach 67.3% this year. And it will account for 29.2% of all advertising spend in 2018 and one-third by next year. Markets that have shown a significant gain in mobile ad spend include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, the UK and the US.
Latin America and the Middle East and Africa’s mobile ad markets will grow by at least 50.0% this year, fueled by improving mobile infrastructure that can support increased ad loads. Mobile advertising in Asia-Pacific and Central and Eastern Europe will grow between 32.9% and 35.2%, as each are home to a mix of healthy and still-growing mobile ad markets. The more mature mobile markets in North America and Western Europe will see mobile ad spend rise 24.1% and 23.9%, respectively.
The economic outlook for markets across Asia-Pacific are generally positive. Reflecting this, ad investment in the region will increase 10.7% to $210.43 billion, with China accounting for 45.5% of regional ad spending.
Digital media ad outlays in Asia-Pacific will rise 20.9% to $96.78 billion. Gains will be driven by shifting traditional TV ad spend to video on social media and over-the-top (OTT) platforms, as well as growing ecommerce activity in the region. During the forecast period, digital ad spend as a share of total media is expected to grow from 46.0% to 55.1%. The countries where digital will account for more than half of total ad spending are Australia (55.6%), China (64.6%) and New Zealand (50.4%).
Asia-Pacific has the most mobile-focused ad market of any region, driven largely by its massive mobile phone user base. Approximately one-third of total media spend and 71.7% of digital ad outlays will go to mobile channels this year. Markets that overindex on mobile as a share of digital advertising include China (76.4%), South Korea (73.2%) and Taiwan (74.7%).
Russia, which represents more than one-third of ad spending in Central and Eastern Europe, saw market conditions improve in 2017 thanks to increasing oil demand. Ad spending growth in the region is expected to accelerate from 7.0% last year to 8.5% in 2018, reaching $18.19 billion.
Central and Eastern Europe is in the middle of the regional pack for digital advertising maturity. Spending on digital media will grow 14.8% to $7.49 billion, capturing 41.2% of total ad business.
In Russia, the Association of Communication Agencies of Russia (ACAR) reported internet ad spending surpassed that of TV for the first time during Q3 2017. In an attempt to make up for lost spending, TV ad prices have been increased. But we forecast that digital’s share of total spending will grow to nearly 50% by 2022.
Central and Eastern Europe’s digital ad market is less mobile-focused than most other regions. Lack of mobile infrastructure, particularly in Russia, has kept desktop/laptop usage healthy. This year, just 46.3% of digital ad dollars will go to mobile platforms. As smartphone adoption grows in 2018, it will push mobile’s share of digital above 50% by 2019.
Ad spending in Latin America will rise 8.7% to $38.04 billion in 2018. Growth will be driven by stabilizing economies and general elections in several markets, along with growing digital ad investment and the FIFA World Cup.
This year, for the first time, digital media will capture more than one-quarter (26.3%) of the total ad market in Latin America. Advertisers are reallocating spend from TV to digital channels, which will spur growth of 20.1% to $10.01 billion. The most digitally mature market in the region will be Mexico, where 35.9% of ad spend will go to digital formats.
Latin America will reach another important milestone in 2018, when more than half of digital ad spend (52.9%) will come from mobile. The region will also see the fastest mobile ad growth in the world, climbing 55.0% to $5.29 billion. A majority of internet users in the region (80.6%) go online via mobile phones, and the ad market is finally catching up to usage. This is particularly true in Brazil and Mexico, where mobile will account for 55.5% and 63.8% of digital ad outlays.
Since hitting a low in ad spend growth in 2016, the ad market in the Middle East and Africa has experienced a slow but steady recovery. Ad investments are expected to increase 4.8% in 2018, reaching $24.91 billion.
The Middle East and Africa’s economies are fragile due to oil production cuts and political tensions in the region. Though consumer spending is not expected to grow significantly, some advertisers are increasing expenditures to protect—or to increase—their market shares.
Digital channels will also drive ad growth based on improving methods for measurement, specifically toward engagement and conversions. The digital ad market will increase 22.0% this year, the highest growth rate of any region, reaching $4.63 billion. While fast growth is attributable to digital’s small share of total media spend (18.6%), digital is increasingly drawing ad dollars from print media as well.
In 2018, mobile’s 28.3% share of digital ad spend will be the smallest percentage of any region. However, we forecast mobile’s share will surge to 67.7% by 2022.
Ad spending in North America will reach $232.48 billion in 2018, a 6.6% improvement over last year. More than any other region, advertising in North America is driven by its digital channels, which will account for 48.6% of spending.
Both Canada and the US had healthy economic growth in 2017, which kept advertiser spending high. Even though advertisers continue to scale back spending on traditional media like TV and print, they have poured ad dollars into digital media. In 2018, digital ad expenditures will rise 18.5% to $112.91 billion.
Digital advertising in North America is increasingly synonymous with mobile. By the end of this year, mobile will account for 69.9% of digital spend and 33.9% of total media.
Digital and mobile will hold similar shares of ad spending in both Canada and the US. The primary difference between the two countries is the size of spend, with the US accounting for 95% of total media ad spending.
Ad spending growth in Western Europe will again trail the rest of the world, climbing 2.8% to $104.57 billion. The region’s slow gain mirrors its modest GDP growth. With only a few markets still making the transition from traditional to digital channels, Western Europe will trail other regions in growth throughout the forecast.
Western Europe will be the only region in the world with digital ad growth below 10% this year. This is due to several markets already allocating more than 45% of ad spend to digital, including Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK.
Meanwhile, traditional media remains popular in two major markets—France with TV and Germany with print. Digital will account for roughly 30% of total ad spending in these countries this year and reach 33.3% by 2022.
Western Europe will rank third among regions in mobile share of digital ad spending at 61.4%. Outside of Austria, France and Spain, more than half of digital ad spending in all covered markets will be mobile-based. However, slow overall digital gains will limit mobile ad growth to 23.9% in 2018—ranking behind all other regions.
New to eMarketer’s worldwide ad spending forecast are estimates for Austria and Switzerland. Digital outlays in Austria will total $828.0 million in 2018, while in Switzerland they will reach $1.09 billion. Spending increases will be below the regional average, and digital media will account for one-fifth of expenditures in each market.
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