Part 2 Ch10
Knowing is not a yes-no affair.
对很多事情,我们看似了解,实际并不懂。"知道"并不等于"懂得"。
比如你知道样本量对结果准确性的影响,大样本更精准,但是碰到实际问题时,我们并不懂得用这个法则去思考。大部分人都会忽略样本量这一关键数据。
The bottom line:yes, you did know that results of large samples are more precise, but you may now realize that you did not know it very well.
This is the meaning of the statement “that people are not adequately sensitive to sample size”.
Naturally, you focus on the story rather than on the reliability of the results.
我们之所以会容易犯这些错误,原因就在于我们的系统1倾向于不怀疑,压制模糊的概念,同时构建自己的故事。
小样本错误是偏见的一种表现,面对怀疑,"偏好"往往使我们倾向于肯定,同时"偏好"有很多伪装。
"偏好"会夸大实事。