Topic 1 Amazon’s Empire
The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent on line in U.S.
在美国,网上每消费一美元,这个前书商就占据了超过一半的份额。
Since the beginning of 2015, its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years.(and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 Index)
自从2015年初,它的股价就涨了173%,比前两年快了七倍。(比标准普尔500指数快了12倍)
With a market capitalization of some 400bn, it is the fifth most valuable firm in the world.
拥有着大约4000亿美元的市值,亚马逊是世界上第五大最有价值的公司。
Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.
以前从没有一个公司长时间这么有价值却不赚多少钱:它的92%的价值是源于2020年后预期的盈利。
Walmart already has revenues nudging 500bn and is beefing up online.
沃尔玛的盈利接近5000亿美元,正在加强网络业务。
Last year cash-flow (before investment) was $16bn, more than quadruple the level five years ago.
去年的现金流(投资前)为160亿美元,比五年前的四倍还多。
If it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms.
如果它赚的钱与投资者的期望一样多,一个粗略计算认为它所赚的钱等同于列举的西方零售商和媒体公司的盈利总和的25%。
Ground for skepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation.
怀疑的土壤从没有像现在这样肥沃:亚马逊必须发展地比现代历史中的几乎所有的大公司还要快,来证明它的估值。
In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon.
当高层惯常地抱怨创造短期成果的压力的时候,亚马逊果断地专注在遥远的未来。
Mr. Bezos emphasizes continual investment to propel its two principal businesses.
贝索斯先生重视不断的投资来推动其首要两个业务。
A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant:
第三个良性循环开始席卷该公司的语音助手Alexa。
So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy.
只要股东对这个模式保持信心,亚马逊令人兴奋的估值将是一个自我验证的预期。
Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record.
他们的信心受到亚马逊业绩的支撑。
It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smart-phone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash.
它也有过失败——生产智能手机的尝试就是个惨败。但这个业务正开始盈利。
If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities.
如果亚马逊对时限的态度是不正常的,那么对它的业务的广度也是这样。
A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stock markets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their in- efficiencies.
如此广的范围更像是个企业集团而不是零售商,这让亚马逊的股价看起来甚至更膨胀:股市通常会打一个“企业集团折扣”来反映它们的低效。
Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine.
从这一方面看,亚马逊似乎很原始。
Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America, according to a Harris poll.
消费者称赞这个公司。根据哈里斯名义调查,它是美国最受推崇的公司。
If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators.
如果它快要实现它们了,将会吸引管理者的注意。
But as it grows, so will concerns about its power.
但是随着它的成长,关于它的权力的担忧也随之而来。
Investors value Amazon’s growth over pro-fits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting.
投资者看中亚马逊盈利的增长,这使得掠夺性要价更具吸引力。