英文早读第31篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。

Dempster is a manufacturer of farm implements and water systems with sales in 1961 of about 9 million. Operations have produced only nominal profits in relation to invested capital during recent years. This reflected a poor management situation, along with a fairly tough industry situation. Presently, consolidated net worth (book value) is about 4.5 million, or 75 per share, consolidated working capital about 50 per share, and at yearend we valued our interest at 35 per share. While I claim no oracular vision in a matter such as this, I feel this is a fair valuation to both new and old partners. Certainly, if even moderate earning power can be restored, a higher valuation will be justified, and even if it cannot, Dempster should work out at a higher figure. Our controlling interest was acquired at an average price of about 28, and this holding currently represents 21% of partnership net assets based on the 35 value.
邓普斯特是一家农场器械和灌溉系统生产商，在1961年销售额大约900万美金。相比于这些年的投资金额，运作产生了很小的利润。这反映了糟糕的管理状况，同时处于相当难搞的工业领域。现在，他的归总净资产（账簿价值）大约450万美金，或者每股75美元，归总运营资产大约每股50美金，在年末我们评估了我们的权益在每股35美金。尽管我宣称在像这类事情上没有上帝视角，我也感觉这是对新老合伙人都公平的估值。当然，如果当前盈利水平可以被修复更高的估值将会修正，即使没有，邓普斯特也会呈现更好的数据。我们控股的权益以平均28美金价格获取，以基于当前每股35美金价值，这些持股现在占合伙基金净资产的21%。

Of course, this section of our portfolio is not going to be worth more money merely because General Motors, U.S. Steel, etc., sell higher. In a raging bull market, operations in control situations will seem like a very difficult way to make money, compared to just buying the general market. However, I am more conscious of the dangers presented at current market levels than the opportunities. Control situations, along with work-outs, provide a means of insulating a portion of our portfolio from these dangers.
当然，我们的这笔投资不会值更多钱，仅仅因为通用汽车，美国钢铁等等卖的更高。在一个猛烈的牛市，控股类型的运作相比于仅仅购买一般股票很难赚钱。然而，我更加关心的是当前市场水平呈现的风险而不是机会。控股情况，也包括套利类，为我们的投资组合避免这些危险提供了方法。

The question of Conservatism
关于保守主义的问题

The above description of our various areas of operation may provide some clues as to how conservatively our portfolio is invested. Many people some years back thought they were behaving in the most conservative manner by purchasing medium or long-term municipal or government bonds. This policy has produced substantial market depreciation in many cases, and most certainly has failed to maintain or increase real buying power.
以上这些不同运作范畴的描述或许提供了一些关于我们的投资组合如何被保守投资的线索。一些年以前，很多人认为他们最保守的方式是购买中型或长期的地方性或国家债券。这个策略在很多情况下产生了巨大的市场贬值，大部分都无法维持或提高实际购买力。

Conscious, perhaps overly conscious, of inflation, many people now feel that they are behaving in a conservative manner by buying blue chips securities almost regardless of price-earnings ratios, dividend yields, etc. Without the benefit of hindsight as ill the bond example, I feel this course of action is fraught with danger. There is nothing at all conservative, in my opinion, about speculating as to just how high a multiplier a greedy and capricious public will put on earnings.
担心，或许过度担心通胀，很多人现在感觉通过购买蓝筹股是保守的，几乎不管不顾价格盈利比，分红水平等等。抛开像糟糕的债券投资例子教训后的收益外，我认为这系列行为充满风险。这一点都不保守，在我看来，关于仅仅推测一个贪婪的变化无常的公开市场能够翻几倍来推算利润。

You will not be right simply because a large number of people momentarily agree with you. You will not be right simply because important people agree with you. In many quarters the simultaneous occurrence of the two factors is enough to make a course of action meet the test of conservatism.
你不会仅仅因为大量人当前同意你而正确。你也不会仅仅因为重要的人同意你而正确。在很多情况下，这两个因素同时发生就足够使人感觉行为复合保守主义的测试了。

You will be right, over the course of many transactions, if your hypotheses are correct, your facts are correct, and your reasoning is correct. True conservatism is only possible through knowledge and reason.
你将是正确的，通过一些列交易，如果你的假设是正确的，如果你的要素是正确的，如果你的推论是正确的。真正的保守主义只有通过常识和推论才是唯一可能的。

I might add that in no way dose the fact that our portfolio is not conventional prove that we are more conservative or less conservative than standard methods of investing. This can only be determined by examining the methods or examining the results.
我或许会加上就因为我们的投资组合是非常规就证明我们相比于标准投资方法更保守或者更不保守是走不通的。这仅能够通过检测我们的方法和我们的结果来决定。

I feel the most objective test as to just how conservative our manner of investing is arises through evaluation of performance in down markets. Preferably these should involve a substantial decline in the Dow. Our performance in the rather mild declines of 1957 and 1960 would confirm my hypothesis that we invest in an extremely conservative manner. I would welcome any partner's suggesting objective tests as to conservatism to see how we stack up. We have never suffered a realized loss of more than 0.5% of 1% of total net assets, and our ratio of total dollars of realized gains to total realized losses is something like 100 to 1. Of course; this reflects the fact that on balance we have been operating in an up market. However, there have been many opportunities for loss transactions even in markets such as these (you may have found out about a few of these yourselves) so I think the above facts have some significance.
我认为关于我们的投资行为多保守最客观的测试是在估值下降的市场如何上涨。最好能包含道琼斯指数的大幅下降。在相较温和下降的1957年和1960年，我们的表现证明了我的推测，我们的投资是极其保守的行为。我欢迎任何合伙人建议关于我们的保守主义如何立的住脚的测试。我们从来没有遭受过多于净资产0.5%或1%的实现损失，同时我们实现的获益美金和损失美金比例似乎是100比1。当然，这也反映了一个事实，我们在一个上涨的市场也能够相对平衡。然而，有非常多亏损交易的机会即使在这样的市场（你或许都能从你们自己身上找到几例），因此我认为上面这些方面是有分量的。

46.implement：实施；施行；贯彻；工具；器具；简单的户外工具
47.nominal：名义上的；名词的；象征性的；很小的
48.consolidated：加固的；统一的
49.book value：（公司资产的）账面价值
50.oracular：神谕般的；天书般的；高深莫测的
51.raging：严重的；很严重的；很痛苦的
52.conservatism：保守主义；保守；守旧
53.municipal：市政的；城市的；地方性的；地区的；内政的；地方政府的
54.depreciation：折旧；贬值；跌价；磨损；低估；藐视
55.conscious：有意识地；有意的；慎重的；特别感兴趣的
56.insulate：使隔热；使绝缘；隔离；使隔音；使免受；使免除
57.overly：过于；十分；很
58.inflation：通货膨胀；充气；通胀率
59.yield：产量；产出；利润；出产
60.hindsight：事后聪明
61.ill：生病的；不健康的；不良的；不吉利的
62.fraught：充满的；伴随的；忧虑的；忧伤的；满载的；装备的
63.speculate：推测；猜测；投机；推断；做投机买卖
64.multiplier：乘数；倍数
65.greedy：贪婪的；贪心的；渴望的
66.capricious：反复无常的；任性的；多变的；变化无常的
67.momentarily：立刻；马上；短促的；片刻的
68.simultaneous：同时的；同步的；同时发生的
69.hypothesis：假设；猜测
70.conventional：常规的；传统的；习惯的；墨守成规的；依照惯例的
71.objective：客观的；客观存在的；基于事实的；就事论事的
72.preferable：更好的；更可取的；略胜一筹的
73.mild：温和的；轻微的；和善的；不强烈的；不严厉的
74.stack up：比较；比高低；站得住脚；符合预期；争胜负