英文早读第149篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
(3) Purely passive investment in tax-free bonds will now bring about 6-1/2%. This yield can be achieved with excellent quality and locked up for just about any period for which the investor wishes to contract. Such conditions may not exist in March when Bill and I will be available to assist you in bond purchases, but they exist today.
（3）完全被动的投资在免税债券现在收益大约6.5%。这个收益可以获得很好的质量和任意期限任意时间交易的锁定期。这些条件或许明年3月比尔和我帮助你债券购买时就不存在了，但是他们现在存在。
(4) The ten year expectation for corporate stocks as a group is probably not better than 9% overall, say 3% dividends and 6% gain in value. I would doubt that Gross National Product grows more than 6% per annum - I don't believe corporate profits are likely to grow significantly as a percentage of GNP - and if earnings multipliers don't change (and with these assumptions and present interest rates they shouldn't) the aggregate valuation of American corporate enterprise should not grow at a long-term compounded rate above 6% per annum. This typical experience in stocks might produce (for the taxpayer described earlier) 1-3/4% after tax from dividends and 4-3/4% after tax from capital gain, for a total after-tax return of 6-1/2%. The pre-tax mix between dividends and capital gains might be more like 4% and 5%, giving a slightly lower aftertax result. This is not far from historical experience and overall, I believe future tax rules on capital gains are likely to be stiffer than in the past.
（4）对公司股票十年的预期整体看大约不会优于9%，比如3%的股息和6%的价值增长。我怀疑国民生产总值每年增长会超过6%——我不相信公司盈利作为GNP的一部分会大幅增长——如果市盈率没有变化（当这些假设和现在的利率下他们应该不会），总体的美国公司估值不会每年复合增长超过6%。在股市这类典型情况将会产生（对于早前描述的纳税人）1.75%的税后股息和4.75%的税后资本利得，整体税后回报6.5%。在股息和资本利得的税前可能更接近在4%和5%，会让税后结果稍微更低一些。这和和历史经验相差不大，整体来说，我相信未来的资本利得税收规则可能会比过去更严格。
(5) Finally, probably half the money invested in stocks over the next decade will be professionally managed. Thus, by definition virtually, the total investor experience with professionally managed money will be average results (or 6-1/2% after tax if my assumptions above are correct).
（5）最后，或许投资到股市中的一半资金在接下来10年会被专业管理。因此，根据事实上的定义，整体投资案例在专业管理资金下将会是平均水平（或者说如果我上面的假设是对的会是税后6.5%）。
My judgment would be that less than 10% of professionally managed money (which might imply an average of 40 billion just for this superior segment) handled consistently for the decade would average 2 points per annum over group expectancy. So-called "aggressively run" money is unlikely to do significantly better than the general run of professionally managed money. There is probably 50 billion in various gradations of this "aggressive" category now - maybe 100 times that of a decade ago - and 50 billion just can't "perform".
我的判断是将会有少于10%的专业管理资金（这意味着大约400亿美金处于优秀范围）在接下来10年持续每年领先整体表现2个百分点。所谓的“进取型操作”资金不会做的比一般专业操作资金显著优秀。这里现在有大约500亿在不同等级的进取型基金——或许是10年前的100倍——这500亿美金不太会出色表现。
If you are extremely fortunate and select advisors who achieve results in the top 1% to 2% of the country (but who will be working with material sums of money because they are that good), I think it is unlikely you will do much more than 4 points per annum better than the group expectancy. I think the odds are good that Bill Ruane is in this select category. My estimate, therefore, is that over the next decade the results of really excellent management for our "typical taxpayer" after tax might be 1-3/4% from dividends and 7-3/4% from capital gain, or 9-1/2% overall.
如果你非常幸运，选择了这个国家可以实现头部1%到2%结果的顾问（但是因为他们如此成功谁将能够管理这么多资金呢），我认为有可能你也不会比整体表现每年多出4个点。我认为有很大概率比尔罗恩是属于这个精选群体。我因此估计，在接下来10年相当优秀管理的结果将会是我们的“典型纳税人”税后会有1.75%的股息和7.75%的资本利得，或者说整体9.5%。
33.Gross National Product：国民生产总值
34.multiplier：乘数；倍数
35.stiffer：严厉的；强烈的
36.virtually：实际上；事实上；差不多
37.imply：意味着；按时；表明；说明
38.odds：几率；可能性；机会
