2019-06-12 每日一题

Rather than use Triangular Distribution while doing Three Point Estimation you choose to use Beta Distribution.Based on your analysis and understanding you are confident that the project would be completed with a total cost of 108,000 while a worst case scenario would result in the costs incurred to shoot up to 138000 USD. What would the Three point Cost estimate be using Beta Distribution ?
A.112000
C.101000
B.110000
D.以上都不是
参考答案：B
解析：问题说明我们应该使用三点估计，使用Beta分布。这个估计方法的公式是4a + b + c / 6，其中a =最可能估计，b =基于最佳案例情况的估计和c =基于最坏情况的估计。所以使用Beta分布的三点估计计算值是（4 * 108000）+ 90000 + 138000/6 = 660000/6 = 110000 $ ，参考PMBOK245。