Shine, but not rise
剧透一下结论：
Ad-blocking may not quickly spread to smartphones
广告拦截服务可能不会在智能手机上快速普及
AD-BLOCKING is becoming ever more popular on personal computers. According to some estimates, in a few countries more than a third of internet users now have the necessary software installed in their browsers. But what has advertisers and publishers really worried is that ad-blocking could soon make a dent in the more rapidly growing market for ads on smartphones, which will reach $100 billion this year globally, according to eMarketer, a data provider.
广告拦截服务在个人电脑上日渐普及。根据估算，现在在少部分国家有超过三分之一的互联网用户在浏览器里安装必要的拦截软件。但令广告商和发布者真正头疼的是广告拦截服务可能很快就会触动到如日中天的智能手机广告市场。据数据供应商eMarketer[1]统计，这个领域今年有望在全球创造高达1千亿美元的产值。
On the face of it, such fears are indeed warranted. Mobile browsers which block ads on web pages (though not in apps) have become more popular, particularly in Asia. The operating system for Apple’s iPhones now lets users download ad-blocking software. Most importantly, last month Three, a big mobile operator, announced that it is planning to install ad-blocking technology in its British and Italian networks. Its customers will be able to use it to block ads within apps, too. Other carriers have said that they are looking into offering such a service. Digicel, which is based in Jamaica, is already doing so.
乍看起来，这种担忧真的不是空穴来风。带网页广告拦截功能的手机浏览器（尽管还不能用到应用程序中）变得越来越普及。这种现象在亚洲尤为明显。苹果手机的操作系统现已准许用户下载广告拦截软件了。更重要的是，大型移动运营商Three[2]在上个月宣布，它计划在英国和意大利的通讯网络中使用广告拦截技术。因而它的用户可以借此来拦截应用软件里面的广告。其他的运营商也表示他们有意向提供类似业务。主阵地在牙买加的Digicel[3]已经抢先试水。
But on closer inspection, it is too soon to write the obituary of mobile advertising, says Dean Bubley, a telecoms consultant. More than half the time, smartphone users connect to the internet using Wi-Fi, so they will still get ads even if their mobile operator blocks them. What is more, the fastest-growing sort of mobile advertising is “native”, meaning indistinguishable from other types of content, and sometimes even encrypted. That makes network-based blocking hard, if not impossible.
可推敲之下，给移动端广告业判死刑显然为时尚早, 电信业顾问Dean Bubley [4]提出了自己的见解。智能手机用户有超过一半的时间都是通过Wifi联网的，所以手机运营商的广告拦截所起的作用很受限。此外，移动端广告中发展最快的是“原生类”的广告。他们跟有效的内容如出一辙，因此很难区分开，更有甚者进行了加密处理。那只会使得基于网络的拦截越发困难。
Then there are legal and commercial hurdles. Three is planning to let subscribers opt into its ad-blocking service, which is based on technology developed by Shine, an Israeli startup. But that may still run afoul of “network neutrality” rules, which require that all sorts of online traffic, including ads, should be treated equally. To be on the safe side, the service is likely to be offered directly through Shine. Three has given itself a few months to figure it all out. Other carriers are likely to wait and see how Three’s ad-blocking efforts fare.
然后，还有法律和商业方面的阻拦。Three打算让定制用户选用其基于以色列初创公司Shine[5]的广告拦截服务。但这项业务跟强调要平等对待包含广告在内的一切网络流量的“网络中立”原则相冲突。安全起见，这项业务很有可能由Shine直接提供。Three用了几个月来进行规划。其他运营商应该不会跟风，而是选择观望Three在广告拦截这方面的尝试能否奏效。
Given all this, mobile ad-blocking may not grow much beyond its current level in the short term. Online publishers interviewed by Joseph Evans of Enders Analysis, a consulting firm, report that only a few percent of all ads are getting blocked. Even some consumers with ad-blockers installed on their phones may still be choosing to let some through.
基于以上分析，短期来看移动端广告拦截应该难有突破性进展。咨询公司Enders Analysis [6]的Joseph Evans采访的互联网发布者都表示，只有很小一部分 广告被成功拦截。尽管一些用户在手机装了拦截软件，依旧会有漏网之鱼。
Yet advertisers and publishers should not get their hopes up too high. The frustration with mobile ads is growing, and not just because they can annoy. An increasing worry is privacy: mobile ads are targeted using lots of personal data, but it often remains unclear how they are being collected and used. If the advertising industry doesn’t clean up its act, ad-blocking on smartphones may yet grow, albeit slowly, to become as widespread as it is on personal computers.
广告商和发布者也不应自负。移动端广告会还会遇到更多阻挠。这不仅仅出于它的烦人，而是对隐私的担忧。移动端广告被指出使用了很多个人数据，而至于这些数据是如何得来，以及被用来干什么，都不甚明朗。如果广告行业不好自为之，恐怕手机上的广告拦截技术会继续发展，如PC端一般，星星之火，可以燎原。
原文来自 经济学人（March26th 2016）
翻译：Chowin
如果译文有误，或者你有什么想法，欢迎留言~
Explanations
[1] eMarketer
一个独立市场调查机构，专注于洞察市场，分析趋势，主要涉及商业，媒体和现代市场。
[2] Three
英国移动运营商。
[3] Digicel
加勒比的电信运营商。
[4] Dean Bubley
独立科技分析咨询公司Disruptive Analysis的创始人。拥有超过20年的分析经验，专攻无线设备，手机和电信业。
[5]Shine
以色列初创公司，帮助有线无线的运营商保护顾客不受广告侵扰。
[6] Enders Analysis
一家分析咨询公司。
