英文早读第248篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
Insurance Industry Conditions
保险行业现状
The insurance industry's underwriting picture continues to unfold about as we anticipated, with the combined ratio (see definition on page 37) rising from 100.6 in 1979 to an estimated 103.5 in 1980. It is virtually certain that this trend will continue and that industry underwriting losses will count, significantly and progressively, in 1981 and 1982. To understand why, we recommend that you read the excellent analysis of property-casually competitive dynamics done by Brabara Stewart of Chubb Corp. in an October 1980 paper. (Chubb's annual report consistently presents the most insightful, candid and well-written discussion of industry conditions; you should get on the company's mailing list.) Mrs. Stewart's analysis many not be cheerful, but we think it is very likely to be accurate.
保险行业承保局面继续按我们预期的方式展开，综合费率（看第37页的定义）从1979年的100.6上涨到1980年预估103.5。几乎肯定这个趋势会继续，行业承保损失会在1981年和1982年较大地逐步的上涨。为了理解原因，我们推荐你阅读由Chubb公司的布拉巴拉斯特沃特小姐在1980年10月撰写的一篇对财产意外险公司竞争动态的卓越分析。（Chubb的年度报告持续提供最富有洞察力，坦率的和良好撰写的关于行业处境的讨论；你可以加入该公司的邮寄名单。）斯特沃特小姐的分析或许并不乐观，但是我们认为它是非常准确的。
And, unfortunately, a largely unreported but particularly pernicious problem may well prolong and intensify the coming industry agony. It is not only likely to keep many insurers scrambling for business when underwriting losses hit record levels - it is likely to cause them at such a time to redouble their efforts.
并且，很不幸，一个没有被大范围报道但是尤其有害的困难会延长并加强接下来的行业痛苦。他可能不仅仅让很多承保人在承保损失打破历史记录时在业务中挣扎，也很有可能引起他们在那个时间点加倍他们的痛苦。
This problem arises from the decline in bond prices and the insurance accounting convention that allows companies to carry bonds at amortized cost, regardless of market value. Many insurers own long-term bonds that, at amortized cost, amount to two to three times net worth. If the level is three times, of course, a one-third shrink from cost in bond prices - if it were to be recognized on the books - would wipe out net worth. And shrink they have. Some of the largest and best known property-casualty companies currently find themselves with nominal, or even negative, net worth when bond holdings are valued at market. Of course their bonds could rise in price, thereby partially, or conceivably even fully, restoring the integrity of stated net worth. Or they could fall further. (We believe that short-term forecasts of stock or bond prices are useless. The forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.)
这个问题是由债券价格下跌引起的，而保险行业会计管理允许公司按均摊成本记录债券，而不管他们的市值。很多承保人持有长期债券，而以均摊成本算会是净值的接近2-3倍。如果这个水平是3倍，当然，债券价格一旦缩水1/3，如果他在账簿上被承认的话，将会抹去净值。如果他们缩水了，一些最大的和知名的财产意外险公司现在会发现他们自己仅有很少或者甚至是负数的净值，当持有的债券以市场价计算时。当然他们的债券可以加个上涨，因此部分的或者能想到的甚至完全恢复记录的净值的完整价值。也有可能他们会进一步下跌。（我们相信对股票或债券价格的短期预测是无用的。这个预测只会告诉你关于这个预测者的很多事；但是不会告诉你任何关于未来的事。）
76.anticipated：预期的；令人期盼的
77.insightful：富有洞察力的
78.candid：坦率的；坦诚的；公正的
79.pernicious：有害的；恶性的
80.prolong：延长
81.intensify：加强；增强；强化
82.agony：极大的痛苦
83.conceivably：可想而知；想得到地
84.restoring：恢复；修复；使复原
85.integrity：完好；完整；诚实正直
