今日新得
1.来自张潇雨
研究商业的第一个原则：不要把商业当物理学。
人类历史上的物理研究大概过程是这样的：首先，我们要对客观世界有一个观察。接着，我们会根据客观世界的观察，开始总结规律。再之后，就到了验证的部分。研究物理的过程就是：观察世界——提出假设——验证假设。
我们研究科学或者商业，是希望能用它们指导我们的生活和工作。
两个关于我们这个世界的基础逻辑：一是严格的因果律，二是定律的可重复性。
什么是严格的因果律？万事万物的发生都有原因，是原因导致了结果。只要你凑齐了所有的初始条件，执行一遍这个物理过程，那么结果就是必然的，是一个非常严丝合缝的，从初始条件推到最终结果的过程。
什么是定律的可重复性？定律之所以是定律，是因为它能预测未来。
任何商业事件都是被千千万万的因素影响着的。它总是在发展、变化，没有一个法则是万用的、一定能保证成功的。要明白这些理论可以去学习、去理解，甚至去应用，但千万不要觉得它们像不变的物理定律似的。否则你就会错失了真正理解商业、还原商业世界本质的机会了。
搞商业的时候，一辈子可能经历几次认知崩塌和重建。
——吴伯凡老师说做实验必须满足四个条件：大样本，双盲，随机性、对比。抽烟是否有害健康的实验，选用的是双胞胎，最后的结果竟然是抽烟的寿命更长。影响寿命的因素有好多，只拿抽烟来衡量，这个实验的变量太多。
“知识不是预见，但预见是知识的一部分。”失败了照照镜子，成功了看看窗外。
创业的很多人都有个误区是觉得富人的钱好挣。这个其实也有归因偏差在里面。你看到的是那些挣富人钱存活下来的企业，你没看到的是那些死掉的。“当你免费的时候，他们的智商为0，当你试图从他们口袋掏点钱时，他们的智商立刻变成145。”
2.来自万维刚
我们尊重客观的世界，反对不切实际的幻想。
成功学想把人生变成算法，人生从不是算法，人生是矛盾。
首先你得知道你是哪种人，你是容易通过过滤机制的人，还是容易被过滤掉的人？是遵守规则的人，还是反抗规则的人？是蒲公英还是兰花？是正常人还是极端人？
——韬奋男孩的队长王俊凯今天要高考了。翻开他们三个的履历，从4.5岁就开始在全国的舞蹈大赛上拿各种第一名了。
天道酬勤+外部条件。仅供参考，多么深刻地领悟。
“答案错了？”
“嗯，参考答案，仅供参考。”
清晨朗读会
Brené Brown on How to Reckon with Emotion and Change Your Narrative
The most powerful stories may be the ones we tell ourselves, says Brené Brown. But beware—they're usually fiction.（虚构）
By Brené Brown
My husband, Steve, and I were having one of those days. That morning, we'd overslept. Charlie couldn't find his backpack, and Ellen had to drag （拖拽）herself out of bed because she'd been up late studying. Then at work I had five back-to-back meetings, and Steve, a pediatrician（儿科医生）, was dealing with cold-and-flu season. By dinnertime, we were practically in tears.
Steve opened the refrigerator and sighed. "We have no groceries. Not even lunch meat." I shot back, "I'm doing the best I can. You can shop, too!" "I know," he said in a measured voice. "I do it every week. What's going on?"
I knew exactly what was going on: I had turned his comment into a story about how I'm a disorganized, unreliable partner and mother. I apologized and started my next sentence with the phrase that's become a lifesaver in my marriage, parenting and professional life: "The story I'm making up is that you were blaming me for not having groceries, that I was screwing up."
Steve said, "No, I was going to shop yesterday, but I didn't have time. I'm not blaming you. I'm hungry."
Storytelling helps us all impose（欺骗，利用） order on chaos（混乱）—including emotional chaos. When we're in pain, we create a narrative to help us make sense of it. This story doesn't have to be based on any real information. One dismissive glance from a coworker can instantly turn into I knew she didn't like me. I responded to Steve so defensively because when I'm in doubt, the "I'm not enough" explanation is often the first thing I grab. It's like my comfy（舒服的） jeans—may not be flattering（不谄媚的）, but familiar.
Our stories are also about self-protection. I told myself Steve was blaming me so I could be mad instead of admitting that I was vulnerable（易受伤害的） or afraid of feeling inadequate（不恰当的）. I could disengage（脱离） from the tougher stuff. That's what human beings tend to do: When we're under threat, we run. If we feel exposed or hurt, we find someone to blame, or blame ourselves before anyone else can, or pretend we don't care.
（对方仅仅在陈述事实，可能被我们听出了一些“言外之意”）
今日杂感
就你们自己把他当个宝，扔到社会上就是一坨屎！你要把他扔出去，是不是宝得别人说啊！自己当不顶事！
——负责维护高考考点的保安队长感慨送考家长们的“操碎了心”。
