Point of view 1
This man is holding a piece of fruit in his hand.
The piece of fruit is either a orange or an apple.
We can't see which it is because we can't see inside the box.
The probability that it is an orange is equal to probability that it is an apple.
It may be an apple and maybe an orange.
It's got to be one of the other.
It can't be anything else.
Now let's look at it from matt's point of view.
From his point of view, the probabilities are different.
From his point of view, the probability that he has an orange were hundred percent or zero percent.
That's because he knows what he has.
For him, there is no uncertainty.
If he has an orange, the probability is one hundred percent.
If he doesn't have an orange, the probability is zero percent.
He either has it or he doesn't.
From my point of view, the probability that he has an orange is fifteen percent.
