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The world’s most remarkable firm may eventually be threatened by its own success.
这个世界上最卓越的企业最终可能受到来自自身成功的威胁。
AMAZON is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.
AMAZON是一家非凡的公司。这家以前的图书销售商已占到美国在线消费额的一半以上。它还是世界领先的云计算提供商。今年亚马逊在电视内容制作上的支出可能两倍于有线电视频道HBO。其自有品牌的实体产品包括电池，杏仁，西装。还有能与虚拟语音助手相连的音箱，可用于控制包括灯具和喷淋头等装置。
Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index).With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.
然而，亚马逊的股东们投资的前提是这一切仅仅是开始而已。2015年年初以来，其股价上涨了173％，比前两年快了7倍（比标准普尔500指数快了12倍）。目前市值约4000亿美元。公司已在全球最有价值公司中排名第五位。以前还从来没有哪一家公司在只创造了微不足道利润的情况下，在如此长时间内保持如此高的估值：其估值的92％基于2020年以后创造的利润。
That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?
那是因为投资者预计公司收入未来会有异乎寻常的上涨，从去年的1360亿美元，在十年内增加到年销售额5000亿美元，而且利润也会暴增。把投资希望寄托于它，意味着它可能变得比美国任何其他公司更利润丰厚。怀疑论质疑的基础在于：亚马逊必须比近代史上几乎任何一家大公司成长得更快才能证明其估值合理。这可能实现吗？
It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not standstill. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online.If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.
可以很容易罗列出一些危险。对手不会坐以待毙；微软拥有云计算的野心; 沃尔玛的年收入已经逼近了5000亿美金，而且正在加强其线上投入；亚马逊的创始人和老板贝索斯要有个三长两短，这个空缺将非常难以弥补。但是，公司最引人注目之事是实现这样一个前所未有的目标有多少机会。
A new sort of basket-case
新篮中恶魔
This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon. Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propelits two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon WebServices (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.
这很大程度上因为公司对企业生存的两个维度的非同寻常的做法。第一个是时间。这样一个高管们经常抱怨工作在重压下，短期内要出成绩的时代，亚马逊却坚定地把目光放在远方的地平线。贝索斯先生强调要不断投资以推动两大主要业务模块-电子商务和它的云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。
In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon.That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers. Similarly, the more customers use AWS,the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers,giving developers reason to create yet more services.
在电子商务方面，亚马逊吸引的消费者越多，愿意在亚马逊上出售自己商品的零售商和制造商也会越多。那将带给亚马逊更多的现金用于新的服务，诸如两小时发运和流媒体视频和音乐，这会吸引更多的顾客。于此类似，越多客户使用AWS，就有越多资金可以投资到新的服务，吸引更多的客户。第三个良性循环围绕着该公司的语音助理Alexa开始展开：随着开发者们为Alexa开发出一些服务功能，对消费者来说它就变得更加有用，而开发者也就找到了开发出更多服务功能的理由。
So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash. Last year cash flow (before investment) was $16bn,more than quadruple the level five years ago.
只要股东对这一模式保持信心，亚马逊有点任性的估值就会像一个自证预言。公司将有能力保持支出，其支出又会使公司更加强大。亚马逊的记录支撑了他们的信心。它曾经历了一些失败 -制造智能手机的尝试就是其中的一次。但业务已经开始产生现金流。去年，现金流（投资前）为160亿美元，是五年前的四倍。
If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”. A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stock markets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.
如果说亚马逊路径的时间框架是不同寻常的，那么其经营活动的广度也是如此。该公司的年报中列出的当前和可能竞争对手的名单包括物流公司，搜索引擎，社交网络，食品制造商和“各种物质，数字和交互媒体”的制造商。如此大的经营跨度更让人想象这是一家企业集团，而不是零售商，这使得亚马逊的股价似乎更加虚高了些：证券市场通常适用“企业集团折扣”来反映其低效率。
Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS,which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers.It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky. It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether,and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers,too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility:one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.
许多这些服务支撑了亚马逊自己的扩张和也支持了其他公司的扩张。 明显的例子是AWS，它推动了亚马逊以及其他公司的业务增长。但亚马逊还向其他卖家租赁仓储空间。它正在肯塔基州建造一座价值15亿美元的空运中心。 它正在一些商店测试技术，让消费者完全不必通过收款机付款，并尝试用无人机送货到家。这样的工具相信也可以为其他客户服务。 有些人认为亚马逊可以成为一种新型实用工具：提供从计算能力到支付到物流的商业基础设施。
A giant cannot hide
大到无处藏身
And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon.If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market. America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing.Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine. Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America,according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)
这才是围绕着亚马逊期待的真正问题所在。如果亚马逊接近完成这些目标，它将会引起监管机构的关注。到目前为止，亚马逊不太可能引发反托拉斯行动。它还不是美国这个最成熟的市场上最大的零售商。美国的反垄断执法者主要考察企业对消费者和定价的影响。通过这个视角，亚马逊看起来还处于初级阶段。消费者夸赞它。哈里斯公司的调查结果显示，亚马逊是美国最受尊敬的公司。 （AWS也是初创公司的福音。）
But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms.But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology.In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook,say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.
但随着它的增长，对它力量的关注程度也会与日俱增。即便按照标准的反垄断理由，这也会带来问题：如果亚马逊能够赚到投资者预期的利润，粗略的计算表明其盈利可能会相当于西方零售和媒体公司总利润的25％。而且监管机构正在改变他们对技术的看法。在欧洲，Google被指控利用其搜索引擎的影响力来扩展其相邻业务的能力。数字平台法律责任的比较豁免权正在被蚕食 - 比如针对在Facebook上发表煽动性内容或对Uber司机的审查。
Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future,firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.
亚马逊的商业模式也将促使监管机构转换思路。投资者按照亚马逊的利润增长估值; 这使得掠夺性定价更具诱惑力。未来，企业可能越来越依赖其最大竞争对手提供的工具。如果亚马逊确实成为商业用途，那么作为一个整体监管的呼声将增长。股东相信亚马逊的潜力很有道理。但它的成功会与更强大的野兽-政府产生冲突。
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