英文早读第49篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。

Specifically, if the market should be down 35% or 40% in a year (and I feel this has a high probability of occurring one year in the next ten -- no one knows which one), we should be down only 15% or 20%. If it is more or less unchanged during the year, we would hope to be up about ten percentage points. If it is up 20% or more, we would struggle to be up as much. It is certainly doubtful we could match a 20% or 25% advance from the December 31, 1962 level. The consequence of performance such as this over a period of years would mean that if the Dow produces a 5% per year overall gain compounded, I would hope our results might be 15% per year.
尤其，如果市场一年下跌35%或40%（我认为在接下来十年中的某一年大概率会发生——没有人知道具体哪年），我们也会下跌15或20%。如果这一年多多少少没什么变化，我们会希望上涨10个百分点。如果市场上涨20%或更多，我们要很费力去追平。当然毫无疑问我们会比1962年12月31日上涨20%或25%。在接下来一些年表现的次序将会意味着如果每年道琼斯指数整体复合增长5%，我们的结果将会是15%每年。

The above expectations may sound somewhat rash, and there is no question but that they may appear very much so when viewed from the vantage point of 1965 or 1970. Variation in any given year from the behavior described above would be wide, even if the long-term expectation was correct. Certainly, you have to recognize the possibility of substantial personal bias in such hopes.
以上这些期望或许草率，但是毫无问题当我们从1965年或1970年的领先时回头看将更清晰。在具体某一年实际发生的和上面描述的差距将会很大，即使长期预期是对的。当然，你必须意识到在这些期望中巨大的个人偏见的可能性。

Miscellaneous
一些杂事

This year marked the transition from the office off the bedroom to one a bit (quite a bit) more conventional. Surprising as it may seem, the return to a time clock life has not been unpleasant. As a matter of fact, I enjoy not keeping track of everything on the backs of envelops.
今年重点是办公室从卧室到稍微正常（相当稍微）的地方的转变。很惊讶似乎回归按时按点的生活并没有不开心。事实上，我不喜欢信封后面的每件事都要追踪。

91.vantage：优势
92.bias：偏见；偏心；偏向
93.envelop：包住；裹住；盖住；信封