At the beginning of the day political experts stated Hillary had an 80 percent chance to win. Obviously the pre election numbers were wrong in their predictions. What happened ? What went wrong ? 政治专家曾预言希拉里有百分之八十的机会取胜。然而很显然他们的预测是错误的.。到底存在什么原因呢？
以下是我查阅资料得出的几点：
1.普遍白人选民投票给川普，非白人选民投票给希拉里。而川普之所以胜出，是因为他巧妙地拢络了一部分黑人，西班牙人和亚洲人。
2. 票站调查显示，更多的女性投票给了川普而非希拉里。
3. 收入低于49000刀的穷人看上去多数投给希拉里，可这次川普笼络了他们其中一大部分。
4. 非洲裔社区参与选票。
5. 很多白人女性为共和党投票。
To be sure, VoteCastr wasn’t alone. Many election forecasts based on polling, demographics, and historical data. Day political experts stated Hillary had an 80 percent chance to win. VoteCastr’s last predictions, made around 9 p.m. Tuesday evening, had Clinton up in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa-all of which Donald Trump ended up winning on his way to becoming president-elect.The New York Times’ Upshot model, for example, gave Clinton around an 85 percent chance of winning, while the vaunted data-driven forecasting site FiveThirtyEight gave her a 72 percent chance.
So why is the prediction so wrong?
As I have written, part of the reason Trump’s win is being described as a “stunning upset” is because most opinion polling was inaccurate.
Those exit polls point to one clear, deep divide in voting behavior – race. White voters chose Trump, non-white voters chose Clinton. This appears to be different from previous polling data, where the difference between candidates’ national popularity was so narrow that relatively small errors could affect the overall accuracy of results.
What’s more surprising though is that exit polling suggests Trump was able to slightly increase his vote share among black, Hispanic and Asian voters compared with Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012.
Exit polls suggest that, as expected, more women voted for Clinton while more men voted for Donald Trump.
Exit polling data on income points to another surprising result. The poorest voters, those with an income of $49,000 or less, seemed to choose Clinton over Trump –albeit by a much smaller margin than in 2012. For months, Trump was projected to win big among this group.
And the another reason is the African community came out to vote as much as they did in 2008 and 2012.
Early data suggest a clear majority of white women voted Republican, and supporters say Trump’s offensive remarks didn’t affect their decision, and 53% of white women pushed him to victory.
Reference :
(theguardian.com
https://www.technologyreview.com)
