摘录自纳瓦尔播客 Nov 8 2021
人类存在的概率是无限小的
从进化的角度来看，这几乎是不可能的
布雷特： 这是另一种思考方式，对于那些认为外星人存在并且他们会在将来某个时候访问地球的人来说是惊人的。
我们之前谈到了存在于已知宇宙中的数万亿颗行星，它们甚至可能对生命的诞生很友好。想象一下，在我们作为聪明的人类和我们能想象到的最简单的细菌之间，只有 100 个独立的进化步骤。现在这不是真的——可能必须发生一百万个或更多不同的突变才能让生物体生存下来，这样人类今天才存在——但让我们只用100 个突变举例。
想象一下，这些独立步骤中的每一个都有十分之一发生的概率。现在，事实上，这可能更像是百万分之一，但我们会大方地说十分之一。
现在我们拥有的是一条概率链：十分之一，十分之一，十分之一......100 次。这是 1 的 10 乘，全部是 100 的幂次方——即 1 的 1 后跟 100 个 0。这个数字淹没了我之前谈论的行星的天文数字。
换句话说，我们在这个特定论证中出现的可能性是无限小的。它曾经发生过了，这就让我们大开眼界了。
The Probability of Human Existence Is Infinitesimally Small
From an evolutionary standpoint, it’s near impossible
Brett: Here’s another way to think about it that is mathematically frightening for the people who think that the aliens are out there and they’re going to visit us sometime in the future.
We were talking earlier about trillions of planets that exist throughout the known universe that might even be friendly for life to arise. Imagine that between us as intelligent human beings and the most simple form of bacteria that we can imagine, there are only 100 independent evolutionary steps. Now that’s not true—a million or more different mutations probably had to happen to allow the organisms to survive such that we exist today—but let’s make it only 100.
Imagine that each of those independent steps had a probability of just one in 10 happening. Now, in fact, it’s probably more like one in a million, but we’ll be generous and say one in 10.
Now what we have is a chain of probability: one in 10, times one in 10, times one in 10…100 times. This is one over 10, all to the power of 100—which is one over one followed by 100 zeroes. That number swamps the astronomical number I was talking about with planets earlier on.
In other words, the probability of us arising in this particular argument is infinitesimally small. The fact that it’s happened once should blow our minds.
马丽：1的100次方这种无限小概率事件的成果转化(想不到其他词，职业病，只能用我们常用的词语技术转移转化、成果转化哈哈哈)，才有了人类的落地出现，实现了抱团取暖、互相赋能、互相成就，繁衍生育，薪火相传、完成产业化、商业化；完成人类思想&文明&历史的沉淀，为今天的人类积累了丰富的物质、精神宝藏。如果说这种不可能出现的事件都出现了，那么星际中，外星人存在的事件也是可能的，或其他我们想象力以外的任何人事物的出现也是可能的。
nothing is impossible.
impossible is nothing .
just do it , accept it , look forward to it ~
