In life and business, the person with the fewest blind spots wins. Removing blind spots means we see, interact with, and move closer to understanding reality. We think better. And thinking better is about finding simple processes that help us work through problems from multiple dimensions and perspectives, allowing us to better choose solutions that fit what matters to us. The skill for finding the right solutions for the right problems is one form of wisdom.
在生活與商業領域中，盲點最少的人方能取勝。消除盲點，意味著我們能更清晰地認知現實、與現實互動，並進一步接近對現實的理解。我們的思維會變得更縝密，而思維的提升在於找到簡單的方法——這些方法能幫助我們從多個維度與角度剖析問題，從而讓我們更易選出符合自身核心需求的解決方案。針對正確的問題找到恰當的解決方案，這種能力本身就是一種智慧。
This book is about the pursuit of that wisdom, the pursuit of uncovering how things work, the pursuit of going to bed smarter than when we woke up. It is a book about getting out of our own way so we can understand how the world really is. Decisions based on improved understanding will be better than ones based on ignorance. While we can’t predict which problems will inevitably crop up in life, we can learn time-tested ideas that help us prepare for whatever the world throws at us.
本書旨在探尋這種智慧——探究事物運行的規律，力爭在睡前比醒來時更聰明一點。它幫助我們擺脫自身的束縛，從而洞悉世界的真實面貌。基於深刻理解做出的決策，遠勝於憑藉無知所做的判斷。儘管我們無法預知生活中必將出現哪些問題，但我們可以學習那些經受過時間考驗的理念，以應對世間萬物的種種挑戰。
Perhaps more importantly, this book is about avoiding problems. This often comes down to understanding a problem accurately and seeing the secondary and subsequent consequences of any proposed action. The author and explorer of mental models, Peter Bevelin, put it best: “I don’t want to be a great problem solver. I want to avoid problems—prevent them from happening and doing it right from the beginning.”
或許更重要的是，本書旨在教我們如何規避問題。要做到這一點，關鍵在於準確理解問題，並預見擬採取行動可能引發的間接及連鎖後果。心智模型領域的研究者與作家彼得·貝弗林對此有過精妙的闡述：「我不想成為一個頂尖的問題解決者，我更想規避問題——防患於未然，從一開始就把事情做對。」
How can we do things right from the beginning?
如何才能從一開始就把事情做對呢？
We must understand how the world works and adjust our behavior accordingly. Contrary to what we’re led to believe, thinking better isn’t about being a genius. It is about the processes we use to uncover reality and the choices we make once we do.
我們必須先理解世界的運行規則，然後相應地調整自己的行為。與我們通常的認知不同，思維的提升並非取決於是否天資聰穎，而在於我們採用何種方法去探索現實，以及在洞悉現實後做出怎樣的選擇。
# How this book can help you（本書能為你帶來什麼幫助）
This is the first of a series of volumes aimed at defining and exploring the Great Mental Models—those that have the broadest utility across our lives. Mental models describe the way the world works. They shape how we think, how we understand, and how we form beliefs. Largely subconscious, mental models operate below the surface. We’re not generally aware of them and yet they’re the reason when we look at a problem we consider some factors relevant and others irrelevant. They are how we infer causality, match patterns, and draw analogies. They are how we think and reason.
本書是「偉大心智模型」系列叢書的第一部，該系列旨在定義並探討那些在我們生活中具有最廣泛應用價值的心智模型。心智模型是對世界運行方式的描述，它們影響著我們的思維方式、理解方式，以及信念的形成過程。大多數情況下，心智模型處於潛意識層面，在我們察覺不到的地方發揮作用。我們通常無法察覺它們的存在，但正是這些模型決定了我們面對問題時，會認為某些因素相關而另一些不相關；也正是通過這些模型，我們才能推斷因果關係、識別規律並進行類比——它們是我們思考與推理的基礎。
A mental model is simply a representation of how something works. We cannot keep all of the details of the world in our brains, so we use models to simplify the complex into understandable and organizable chunks. Whether we realize it or not, we then use these models every day to think, decide, and understand our world. While there are millions of mental models, some true and some false, these volumes will focus on the ones with the greatest utility—the all-star team of mental models.
心智模型本質上就是對事物運行原理的具象化呈現。我們的大腦無法容納世界的所有細節，因此我們借助模型將複雜的事物簡化為易於理解和歸納的模塊。不論我們是否察覺，我們每天都在運用這些模型進行思考、做決策，並理解我們所處的世界。心智模型的數量可達數百萬種，其中有真實合理的，也有錯誤不當的，而本系列叢書將聚焦於那些效用最強的模型——可謂心智模型中的「全明星陣容」。
Volume One presents the first nine models, general thinking concepts. Although these models are hiding in plain sight, they are useful tools that you were likely never directly taught. Put to proper use, they will improve your understanding of the world we live in and improve your ability to look at a situation through different lenses, each of which reveals a different layer. They can be used in a wide variety of situations and are essential to making rational decisions, even when there is no clear path. Collectively they will allow you to walk around any problem in a three-dimensional way.
第一部介紹了前九種模型，均屬通用思維概念。這些模型雖看似普通、無處不在，卻是我們在常規學習中幾乎從未被直接教授過的實用工具。若能恰當運用，它們將加深你對所處世界的理解，提升你從不同角度看待問題的能力——每個角度都能揭示問題的一個不同層面。這些模型適用於各種場景，即便在沒有明確方向的情況下，它們也是做出理性決策的關鍵。總體而言，它們能讓你以三維立體的視角全面剖析任何問題。
Our approach to the Great Mental Models rests on the idea that the fundamentals of knowledge are available to everyone. There is no discipline that is off limits—the core ideas from all fields of study contain principles that reveal how the universe works, and are therefore essential to navigating it. Our models come from fundamental disciplines that most of us have never studied, but no prior knowledge is required—only a sharp mind with a desire to learn.
「偉大心智模型」系列的創作理念是：知識的基礎原理是所有人都能掌握的。沒有任何學科領域是不可觸及的——各學科領域的核心思想中，都蘊含著揭示宇宙運行規律的原理，而這些原理正是我們應對世界的關鍵。本系列所探討的模型源自一些我們大多數人從未接觸過的基礎學科，但掌握它們無需預先具備相關知識，只需擁有敏銳的思維和學習的渴望。
# Why mental models?（為何需要心智模型？）
There is no system that can prepare us for all risks. Factors of chance introduce a level of complexity that is not entirely predictable. But being able to draw on a repertoire of mental models can help us minimize risk by understanding the forces that are at play. Likely consequences don’t have to be a mystery.
沒有任何一套體系能讓我們應對所有風險。偶然性因素會帶來難以完全預測的複雜性。但只要我們能運用一系列心智模型，理解背後起作用的各種力量，就能幫助我們將風險降到最低。可能出現的後果未必是不可知的。
Not having the ability to shift perspective by applying knowledge from multiple disciplines makes us vulnerable. Mistakes can become catastrophes whose effects keep compounding, creating stress and limiting our choices. Multidisciplinary thinking, learning these mental models and applying them across our lives, creates less stress and more freedom. The more we can draw on the diverse knowledge contained in these models, the more solutions will present themselves.
若無法運用多學科知識轉換視角，我們就會處於被動脆弱的境地。錯誤可能會演變成災難性後果，且影響不斷疊加，不僅帶來壓力，還會限制我們的選擇空間。培養跨學科思維、學習並在生活中運用這些心智模型，能減少壓力，帶來更多自由。我們越能運用這些模型中蘊含的多元知識，就越容易找到解決問題的方法。
豆包：
# Understanding reality（理解現實）
Understanding reality is a vague phrase, one you’ve already encountered as you’ve read this book. Of course we want to understand reality, but how? And why is it important?
「理解現實」是個頗為模糊的說法，在你閱讀本書的過程中想必已多次接觸。毫無疑問，我們都希望理解現實，但究竟該如何做？而這又為何至關重要？
In order to see a problem for what it is, we must first break it down into its substantive parts so the interconnections can reveal themselves. This bottom-up perspective allows us to expose what we believe to be the causal relationships and how they will govern the situation both now and in the future. Being able to accurately describe the full scope of a situation is the first step to understanding it.
要洞悉問題的本質，我們首先必須將其拆解為核心構成部分，如此各部分間的關聯才能自然浮現。這種由下而上的視角，能讓我們梳理出我們所認知的因果關係，以及這些關係在當下與未來將如何影響局勢。而準確描述出事件的完整範圍，正是理解它的第一步。
Using the lenses of our mental models helps us illuminate these interconnections. The more lenses used on a given problem, the more of reality reveals itself. The more of reality we see, the more we understand. The more we understand, the more we know what to do.
運用心智模型這一「透鏡」，有助於我們看清這些關聯。面對某一問題時，運用的透鏡越多，我們所能洞悉的現實層面就越廣；看到的現實越多，我們的理解就越深刻；理解越深刻，我們就越清楚該如何行動。
To defeat Antaeus, Heracles separated him from the source of his power.
為打敗安泰俄斯，赫拉克勒斯將他與其力量之源分離。
Simple and well-defined problems won’t need many lenses, as the variables that matter are known. So too are the interactions between them. In such cases we generally know what to do to get the intended results with the fewest side effects possible. When problems are more complicated, however, the value of having a brain full of lenses becomes readily apparent.
簡單且界定清晰的問題，無需太多「透鏡」——因為其中關鍵變量及其相互作用都是明確的。在這類情況下，我們通常清楚該採取何種行動，以最小的副作用達成預期結果。然而，當問題更為複雜時，頭腦中儲備豐富「透鏡」的價值便會凸顯出來。
That’s not to say all lenses (or models) apply to all problems. They don’t. And it’s not to say that having more lenses (or models) will be an advantage in all problems. It won’t. This is why learning and applying the Great Mental Models is a process that takes some work. But the truth is, most problems are multidimensional, and thus having more lenses often offers significant help with the problems we are facing.
這並非意味著所有「透鏡」（或模型）都適用於所有問題——事實恰恰相反；也並非擁有越多「透鏡」（或模型），在所有問題上都能佔據優勢——實際情況亦非如此。這正是學習與運用「偉大心智模型」需要付出努力的原因。但事實是，大多數問題都具有多維性，因此擁有更多「透鏡」，往往能為我們應對面臨的問題提供重要幫助。
# Keeping your feet on the ground（腳踏實地）
In Greek mythology, Antaeus was the human-giant son of Poseidon, god of the sea, and Gaia, Mother Earth. Antaeus had a strange habit. He would challenge all those who passed through his country to a wrestling match. Greek wrestling isn’t much different from what we think of today when we think of wrestling. The goal is to force the opponent to the ground. Antaeus always won and his opponents’ skulls were used to build a temple to his father. While Antaeus was undefeated and nearly undefeatable, there was a catch to his invulnerability. His epic strength depended on constant contact with the earth. When he lost touch with earth, he lost all of his strength.
在希臘神話中，安泰俄斯是海神波塞冬與大地之母蓋亞的兒子，是一位巨人。他有個奇特的習慣：會向所有途經他領地的人挑戰摔跤。古希臘摔跤與我們如今對摔跤的認知相差無幾，其目標都是將對手摔倒在地。安泰俄斯從未嘗過敗績，幾乎無人能敵，他還用敗者的頭骨建造了一座獻給父親波塞冬的神殿。然而，儘管安泰俄斯戰無不勝、近乎不可擊敗，他的「不敗之軀」卻有一個弱點：他驚人的力量來源於與大地的持續接觸，一旦脫離大地，他便會失去所有力量。
On the way to the Garden of the Hesperides, Heracles was to fight Antaeus as one of his 12 labors. After a few rounds in which Heracles flung the giant to the ground only to watch him revive, he realized he could not win by using traditional wrestling techniques. Instead, Heracles fought to lift him off the ground. Away from contact with his mother, Antaeus lost his strength and Heracles crushed him.
赫拉克勒斯在前往赫斯珀里得斯花園的途中，將與安泰俄斯作戰列為自己十二項功績之一。起初的幾個回合裡，赫拉克勒斯雖多次將安泰俄斯摔倒在地，卻眼看著他一次次復原。此時他意識到，用傳統摔跤技巧無法取勝。於是，赫拉克勒斯改變策略，設法將安泰俄斯舉離地面。脫離了與母親（大地）的接觸，安泰俄斯頓失力量，最終被赫拉克勒斯擊敗。
When understanding is separated from reality, we lose our powers. Understanding must constantly be tested against reality and updated accordingly. This isn’t a box we can tick, a task with a definite beginning and end, but a continuous process.
當理解與現實脫節時，我們便會失去行動的力量。對現實的理解必須不斷接受現實的檢驗，並據此更新。這並非一項可簡單勾選完成、有明確起止的任務，而是一個持續不斷的過程。
You all know the person who has all the answers on how to improve your organization, or the friend who has the cure to world hunger. While pontificating with friends over a bottle of wine at dinner is fun, it won’t help you improve. The only way you’ll know the extent to which you understand reality is to put your ideas and understanding into action. If you don’t test your ideas against the real world—keep contact with the earth—how can you be sure you understand?
想必你身邊也有這樣的人：要麼自稱掌握了優化組織的所有方法，要麼聲稱有解決全球饑荒的妙計。儘管飯桌上與朋友暢飲談論、高談闊論頗有趣味，但這並不能幫助你取得實質性進步。要判斷自己對現實的理解達到了何種程度，唯一的方法便是將自己的想法與認知付諸行動。若不讓自己的想法接受現實的檢驗——不與「大地」保持聯繫——又怎能確定自己真正理解了現實呢？
# Getting in our own way（阻礙我們的自身因素）
The biggest barrier to learning from contact with reality is ourselves. It’s hard to understand a system that we are part of because we have blind spots, where we can’t see what we aren’t looking for, and don’t notice what we don’t notice.
從與現實的接觸中學習，最大的障礙其實是我們自己。身處某一系統之中，我們很難客觀理解這個系統——因為我們存在盲點：看不到那些我們未曾刻意尋找的事物，也察覺不到那些我們本就不會關注的細節。
There are these two young fish swimming along and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says “Morning, boys. How’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes “What the hell is water?”
「有兩條小魚正在游動，恰巧遇到一條從反方向游來的大魚。大魚向它們點了點頭，問道：『孩子們，早上好啊，水怎麼樣？』兩條小魚繼續游了一會兒，最後其中一條看向另一條，疑惑地問：『到底什麼是水啊？』」
David Foster Wallace
（戴維·福斯特·華萊士）
Our failures to update from interacting with reality spring primarily from three things: not having the right perspective or vantage point, ego-induced denial, and distance from the consequences of our decisions. As we will learn in greater detail throughout the volumes on mental models, these can all get in the way. They make it easier to keep our existing and flawed beliefs than to update them accordingly. Let’s briefly flesh these out:
我們在與現實互動後，之所以無法及時更新對現實的認知，主要源於三個原因：缺乏正確的視角或立足點、自我中心引發的否認，以及與自身決策的後果相距甚遠。在後續有關心智模型的系列內容中，我們將更詳細地探討這些因素——它們都會成為理解現實的阻礙，讓我們更傾向於固守既有的錯誤信念，而非據實更新。下面我們簡要分析這三點：
The first flaw is perspective. We have a hard time seeing any system that we are in. Galileo had a great analogy to describe the limits of our default perspective. Imagine you are on a ship that has reached constant velocity (meaning without a change in speed or direction). You are below decks and there are no portholes. You drop a ball from your raised hand to the floor. To you, it looks as if the ball is dropping straight down, thereby confirming gravity is at work.
第一個缺陷是視角問題。身處某一系統中，我們很難全面看清這個系統。伽利略曾用一個精妙的比喻來描述我們默認視角的局限性：設想你在一艘勻速行駛的船上（即速度與方向均不變），位於甲板之下，且沒有舷窗。你將手中的球從高處釋放，讓它落到地面。在你看來，球是垂直下落的——這似乎證實了重力的作用。
Now imagine you are a fish (with special x-ray vision) and you are watching this ship go past. You see the scientist inside, dropping a ball. You register the vertical change in the position of the ball. But you are also able to see a horizontal change. As the ball was pulled down by gravity it also shifted its position east by about 20 feet. The ship moved through the water and therefore so did the ball. The scientist on board, with no external point of reference, was not able to perceive this horizontal shift.
現在，再設想你是一條擁有「X光視力」的魚，正看著這艘船駛過。你看到船內的科學家釋放了球，不僅觀察到球在豎直方向上的位置變化，還能看到它在水平方向上的移動：球在重力作用下落向地面的同時，也隨船向東移動了約20英尺。只因船在水中前進，球也隨之移動。而船上的科學家因沒有外部參照物，無法察覺到這種水平方向的位移。
This analogy shows us the limits of our perception. We must be open to other perspectives if we truly want to understand the results of our actions. Despite feeling that we’ve got all the information, if we’re on the ship, the fish in the ocean has more he can share.
這個比喻向我們揭示了感知的局限性。若想真正理解自身行動所產生的結果，我們必須願意接納其他視角。即便我們自認為掌握了所有信息，就像處在船上的科學家一樣，海中的魚仍能提供我們看不到的視角與信息。
The second flaw is ego. Many of us tend to have too much invested in our opinions of ourselves to see the world’s feedback—the feedback we need to update our beliefs about reality. This creates a profound ignorance that keeps us banging our head against the wall over and over again. Our inability to learn from the world because of our ego happens for many reasons, but two are worth mentioning here. First, we’re so afraid about what others will say about us that we fail to put our ideas out there and subject them to criticism. This way we can always be right. Second, if we do put our ideas out there and they are criticized, our ego steps in to protect us. We become invested in defending instead of upgrading our ideas.
第二個缺陷是自我（ego）。我們中的許多人，過於執著於自身的自我認知，以至於無法客觀看待世界給出的反饋——而這些反饋正是我們更新現實認知所必需的。這會導致一種嚴重的「無知」，讓我們反覆在同一個地方碰壁。出於自我，我們無法從世界中學習，背後原因眾多，但以下兩點值得強調：其一，我們過於懼怕他人的評價，不願將自己的想法公之於眾並接受批評，如此一來，我們便能永遠「正確」；其二，即便我們敢於發表想法並遭遇批評，自我也會出來「保護」我們——我們會傾向於捍衛自己的想法，而非對其進行優化調整。
The third flaw is distance. The further we are from the results of our decisions, the easier it is to keep our current views rather than update them. When you put your hand on a hot stove, you quickly learn the natural consequence. You pay the price for your mistakes. Since you are a pain-avoiding creature, you update your view. Before you touch another stove, you check to see if it’s hot. But you don’t just learn a micro lesson that applies in one situation. Instead, you draw a general abstraction, one that tells you to check before touching anything that could potentially be hot.
第三個缺陷是距離。我們與自身決策後果的距離越遠，就越容易固守現有觀點，而不願更新。比如，當你把手放在灼熱的爐子上時，你會立刻感受到後果，並為自己的錯誤付出代價。由於人天生趨利避害、規避疼痛，你會及時調整自己的認知：下次接觸爐子前，一定會先檢查它是否灼熱。而且，你從中學到的不只是適用於這一特定情境的微小教訓，而是會歸納出一個通用規則——面對任何可能灼熱的物體，接觸前都應先檢查。
Organizations over a certain size often remove us from the direct consequences of our decisions. When we make decisions that other people carry out, we are one or more levels removed and may not immediately be able to update our understanding. We come a little off the ground, if you will. The further we are from the feedback of the decisions, the easier it is to convince ourselves that we are right and avoid the challenge, the pain, of updating our views.
當組織達到一定規模後，我們往往會與自身決策的直接後果脫節。當我們做出的決策由他人執行時，我們與後果之間便隔了一層甚至多層，可能無法及時更新自己的認知。可以說，此時我們的「腳」已稍稍離開了「大地」。與決策反饋的距離越遠，我們就越容易說服自己「當初是對的」，從而規避調整觀點所帶來的挑戰與不適。
Admitting that we’re wrong is tough. It’s easier to fool ourselves that we’re right at a high level than at the micro level, because at the micro level we see and feel the immediate consequences. When we touch that hot stove, the feedback is powerful and instantaneous. At a high or macro level we are removed from the immediacy of the situation, and our ego steps in to create a narrative that suits what we want to believe, instead of what really happened.
承認自己犯錯並非易事。在宏觀層面欺騙自己「沒有錯」，比在微觀層面更容易——因為在微觀層面，我們能直接看到並感受到即時後果（比如碰觸灼熱爐子時，反饋強烈且即時）。而在宏觀層面，我們與情境的即時性脫節，此時自我便會介入，構建一個符合我們期望的「敘事」，而非還原事實真相。
These flaws are the main reasons we keep repeating the same mistakes, and why we need to keep our feet on the ground as much as we can. As Confucius said, “A man who has committed a mistake and doesn’t correct it, is committing another mistake.”
正是這些缺陷，讓我們反覆犯同樣的錯誤，這也解釋了為何我們必須儘可能「腳踏實地」。正如孔子所言：「過而不改，是謂過矣。」
The majority of the time, we don’t even perceive what conflicts with our beliefs. It’s much easier to go on thinking what we’ve already been thinking than go through the pain of updating our existing, false beliefs. When it comes to seeing what is—that is, understanding reality—we can follow Charles Darwin’s advice to notice things “which easily escape attention,” and ask why things happened.
大多數時候，我們甚至察覺不到那些與自身信念相悖的事物。繼續堅持已有的想法，比承受更新錯誤信念的痛苦要容易得多。若想看清事物的本質——即理解現實——我們可以借鑒查爾斯·達爾文的建議：關注那些「易被忽視的細節」，並追問事物發生的原因。
We also tend to undervalue the elementary ideas and overvalue the complicated ones. Most of us get jobs based on some form of specialized knowledge, so this makes sense. We don’t think we have much value if we know the things everyone else does, so we focus our effort on developing unique expertise to set ourselves apart. The problem is then that we reject the simple to make sure what we offer can’t be contributed by someone else. But simple ideas are of great value because they can help us prevent complex problems.
此外，我們還傾向於低估基礎簡單的理念，高估複雜高深的概念。我們大多數人憑藉某種專業知識獲得工作，因此這種傾向不難理解：若我們掌握的知識是人人都會的，便會覺得自身價值不高。於是，我們傾力培養獨特的專業技能，以求與他人區分開來。但問題在於，為了確保自身的「獨特性」，我們會排斥簡單的理念。然而，簡單的理念往往具有巨大價值——它們能幫助我們防範複雜問題的發生。
In identifying the Great Mental Models we have looked for elementary principles, the ideas from multiple disciplines that form a time-tested foundation. It may seem counterintuitive, to work on developing knowledge that is available to everyone, but the universe works in the same way no matter where you are in it. What you need is to understand the principles, so that when the details change you are still able to identify what is really going on. This is part of what makes the Great Mental Models so valuable—understanding the principles, you can easily change tactics to apply the ones you need.
在篩選「偉大心智模型」的過程中，我們著眼於基礎原理——即那些源自多學科、經受過時間考驗的核心理念。致力於學習人人皆可獲取的知識，看似與直覺相悖，但無論身處宇宙何處，其運行規律都是一致的。我們真正需要的是理解這些核心原理，如此一來，即便具體細節發生變化，我們仍能洞悉事物的本質。這也正是「偉大心智模型」的寶貴之處——掌握了原理，便能靈活調整策略，運用所需的模型解決問題。
Most geniuses—especially those who lead others—prosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities.
「大多數天才——尤其是那些能帶領他人的天才——之所以成功，並非因為拆解了繁瑣的複雜性，而是因為善用了那些未被察覺的簡單性。」
Andy Benoit
（安迪·伯諾瓦）
These elementary ideas, so often overlooked, are from multiple disciplines: biology, physics, chemistry, and more. These help us understand the interconnections of the world, and see it for how it really is. This understanding allows us to develop causal relationships, which allow us to match patterns, which allow us to draw analogies. All of this so we can navigate reality with more clarity and comprehension of the real dynamics involved.
這些常被忽視的基礎理念，源自生物學、物理學、化學等多個學科。它們能幫助我們理解世界各事物間的關聯，看清世界的真實面貌。基於這種理解，我們能梳理因果關係、識別規律、進行類比——而這一切的最終目的，是讓我們能更清晰地認知現實，理解其中真正的運行動力，從而更好地應對現實。
# Understanding is not enough（僅有理解尚不足夠）
However, understanding reality is not everything. The pursuit of understanding fuels meaning and adaptation, but this understanding, by itself, is not enough.
然而，僅僅理解現實並非萬事大吉。對理解的追求能為我們的行動賦予意義，也有助於我們適應環境，但僅有理解本身是不夠的。
Understanding only becomes useful when we adjust our behavior and actions accordingly. The Great Models are not just theory. They are actionable insights that can be used to effect positive change in your life. What good is it to know that you constantly interrupt people if you fail to adjust your behavior in light of this? In fact, if you know and don’t change your behavior it often has a negative effect. People around you will tell themselves the simplest story that makes sense to them given what they see: that you just don’t care. Worse still, because you understand that you interrupt people, you’re surprised when you get the same results over and over. Why? You’ve failed to reflect on your new understanding and adjust your behavior.
只有當我們據此調整自身行為與行動時，理解才會產生實際價值。「偉大心智模型」並非僅是理論，它們是可付諸行動的見解，能為你的生活帶來積極改變。比如，即便你意識到自己總是打斷別人說話，但若不為此調整行為，這種認知又有何用？事實上，明知問題所在卻不做出改變，往往會產生負面影響：身邊的人會根據他們看到的情況，得出最簡單的判斷——你根本不在意他人。更糟糕的是，正因為你清楚自己有打斷別人的習慣，當負面結果反覆出現時，你反而會感到困惑。為什麼會這樣？因為你沒有依據新的認知進行反思，也沒有調整自己的行為。
In the real world you will either understand and adapt to find success or you will fail
在現實世界中，你要麼通過理解與調整適應環境、獲得成功，要麼就會走向失敗。
Now you can see how we make suboptimal decisions and repeat mistakes. We are afraid to learn and admit when we don’t know enough. This is the mindset that leads to poor decisions. They are a source of stress and anxiety, and consume massive amounts of time. Not when we’re making them—no, when we’re making them they seem natural because they align with our view of how we want things to work. We get tripped up when the world doesn’t work the way we want it to or when we fail to see what is. Rather than update our views, we double down our effort, accelerating our frustrations and anxiety. It’s only weeks or months later, when we’re spending massive amounts of time fixing our mistakes, that they start to increase their burden on us. Then we wonder why we have no time for family and friends and why we’re so consumed by things outside of our control.
如今你不難理解，我們為何會做出欠佳的決策、反覆犯錯：我們懼怕學習新知，也不願承認自己的知識儲備不足。正是這種心態導致了糟糕的決策——這些決策不僅是壓力與焦慮的源頭，還會耗費大量時間。有趣的是，做決策時我們並不覺得有問題，反而認為這些決策很合理，因為它們符合我們「期望事物運行的方式」。只有當現實與我們的期望背道而馳，或我們無法看清事物本質時，我們才會陷入困境。此時，我們非但不更新自己的認知，反而會加倍努力堅持原有做法，這只會加劇挫折感與焦慮。數周或數月後，當我們耗費大量時間彌補錯誤時，才會感受到這些錯誤帶來的沉重負擔，並開始疑惑為何沒有時間陪伴家人朋友，為何總被自己無法掌控的事情纏身。
We are passive, thinking these things just happened to us and not that we did something to cause them. This passivity means that we rarely reflect on our decisions and the outcomes. Without reflection we cannot learn. Without learning we are doomed to repeat mistakes, become frustrated when the world doesn’t work the way we want it to, and wonder why we are so busy. The cycle goes on.
我們總以被動的心態看待問題，認為這些麻煩是「恰巧發生在自己身上」，而非自身行為導致的結果。這種被動性讓我們很少反思自己的決策與其帶來的結果。沒有反思，就無法學習；沒有學習，就注定會反覆犯錯——當現實不如預期時，我們會感到沮喪，並疑惑自己為何總是如此忙碌。如此循環往復，難以脫身。
But we are not passive participants in our decisions. The world does not act on us as much as it reveals itself to us and we respond. Ego gets in the way, locking reality behind a door that it controls with a gating mechanism. Only through persistence in the face of having it slammed on us over and over can we begin to see the light on the other side.
但事實上，在決策過程中，我們並非被動的參與者。世界並非主動對我們施加影響，更多是向我們展露其本貌，而我們需要做出回應。此時，自我會成為阻礙：它像一扇門，將現實鎖在其控制的「閘門」之後。只有在「門」反覆關閉、不斷碰壁的情況下堅持探索，我們才有可能窺見門後現實的微光。
Ego, of course, is more than the enemy. It’s also our friend. If we had a perfect view of the world and made decisions rationally, we would never attempt to do the amazing things that make us human. Ego propels us. Why, without ego, would we even attempt to travel to Mars? After all, it’s never been done before. We’d never start a business because most of them fail. We need to learn to understand when ego serves us and when it hinders us. Wrapping ego up in outcomes instead of in ourselves makes it easier to update our views.
當然，自我並非僅是「敵人」，它也可以是我們的「朋友」。若我們能完美洞悉世界、完全理性地做決策，就永遠不會去嘗試那些體現人性光輝的驚人之事——自我正是推動我們前進的動力之一。試想，若沒有自我的驅使，我們為何要嘗試登陸火星（畢竟這從未實現過）？我們又為何要創業（畢竟大多數創業都會失敗）？我們需要學會分辨：何時自我能為我們提供幫助，何時又會成為阻礙。若將自我與「結果」而非「自身」綁定，我們會更容易更新自己的認知。
We optimize for short-term ego protection over long-term happiness. Increasingly, our understanding of things becomes black and white rather than shades of grey. When things happen in accord with our view of the world we naturally think they are good for us and others. When they conflict with our views, they are wrong and bad. But the world is smarter than we are and it will teach us all we need to know if we’re open to its feedback—if we keep our feet on the ground.
我們常常為了短期的自我保護，而忽視了長期的幸福感。與此同時，我們對事物的理解越來越傾向於非黑即白，而非認可其灰度地帶。當事情的發展符合我們的認知時，我們會自然認為這對自己和他人都有益；當事情與我們的認知相悖時，我們便認定它是錯誤且有害的。但事實上，世界比我們更「明智」——只要我們願意接受它的反饋，只要我們堅持腳踏實地，它就會教會我們所有需要知道的東西。
Despite having consistently bad results for patients, bloodletting was practiced for over 2,000 years.
儘管放血療法給患者帶來的結果一貫糟糕，這種療法仍被沿用了超過2000年。
# Mental models and how to use them（心智模型及其運用方法）
Perhaps an example will help illustrate the mental models approach. Think of gravity, something we learned about as kids and perhaps studied more formally in university as adults. We each have a mental model about gravity, whether we know it or not. And that model helps us to understand how gravity works. Of course we don’t need to know all of the details, but we know what’s important. We know, for instance, that if we drop a pen it will fall to the floor. If we see a pen on the floor we come to a probabilistic conclusion that gravity played a role.
或許通過一個例子，能更好地解釋心智模型的運用方式。以「重力」為例——我們在兒時便已對其有所認知，成年後或許還在大學課程中對其進行了更系統的學習。不論我們是否察覺，每個人心中都有一個關於重力的心智模型，這個模型幫助我們理解重力的運作方式。當然，我們無需掌握所有細節，只需了解關鍵信息：比如，我們知道若將筆掉落，它會落到地面；若看到地面上有一支筆，我們會大概率判斷重力在其中發揮了作用。
This model plays a fundamental role in our lives. It explains the movement of the Earth around the sun. It informs the design of bridges and airplanes. It’s one of the models we use to evaluate the safety of leaning on a guard rail or repairing a roof. But we also apply our understanding of gravity in other, less obvious ways. We use the model as a metaphor to explain the influence of strong personalities, as when we say, “He was pulled into her orbit.” This is a reference to our basic understanding of the role of mass in gravity—the more there is the stronger the pull. It also informs some classic sales techniques. Gravity diminishes with distance, and so too does your propensity to make an impulse buy. Good salespeople know that the more distance you get, in time or geography, between yourself and the object of desire, the less likely you are to buy. Salespeople try to keep the pressure on to get you to buy right away.
這個模型在我們的生活中扮演著至關重要的角色：它解釋了地球繞太陽運行的原理，指導了橋樑與飛機的設計，也是我們判斷「靠在護欄上是否安全」「修理屋頂是否有墜落風險」時會用到的模型之一。不僅如此，我們還會以更隱性的方式運用對重力的理解：比如，將其作為比喻，解釋強大個性的影響力——當我們說「他被她的魅力所吸引」（He was pulled into her orbit）時，實際上借用了重力中「質量越大，引力越強」的基本原理。此外，一些經典的銷售技巧也源於對重力的理解：重力會隨距離增加而減弱，人們衝動購物的傾向亦是如此。優秀的銷售人員深知，無論是時間上還是空間上，你與渴望之物的距離越遠，購買的可能性就越低。因此，他們會持續施加壓力，促使你立即購買。
Gravity has been around since before humans, so we can consider it to be time-tested, reliable, and representing reality. And yet, can you explain gravity with a ton of detail? I highly doubt it. And you don’t need to for the model to be useful to you. Our understanding of gravity, in other words, our mental model, lets us anticipate what will happen and also helps us explain what has happened. We don’t need to be able to describe the physics in detail for the model to be useful.
早在人類誕生前，重力就已存在。因此，我們可以認為它是經受過時間考驗、可靠且符合現實的模型。但你能詳細解釋重力的所有細節嗎？我對此深表懷疑。然而，這並不影響該模型對你的實用性。換言之，我們對重力的理解（即我們的重力心智模型），既能幫助我們預測即將發生的事，也能解釋已經發生的事——即便無法詳細描述其物理原理，這個模型依然具有實用價值。
However, not every model is as reliable as gravity, and all models are flawed in some way. Some are reliable in some situations but useless in others. Some are too limited in their scope to be of much use. Others are unreliable because they haven’t been tested and challenged, and yet others are just plain wrong. In every situation, we need to figure out which models are reliable and useful. We must also discard or update the unreliable ones, because unreliable or flawed models come with a cost.
然而，並非所有模型都像重力模型一樣可靠，事實上，所有模型在某種程度上都存在缺陷：有些模型在特定情境下可靠，在其他情境下卻毫無用處；有些模型的適用範圍過於狹窄，實用價值有限；還有些模型因未經檢驗與質疑而不可靠，甚至有些模型本身就是錯誤的。因此，在任何情境下，我們都需要判斷哪些模型可靠且有用，並捨棄或更新不可靠的模型——因為不可靠或有缺陷的模型必然會帶來代價。
For a long time people believed that bloodletting cured many different illnesses. This mistaken belief actually led doctors to contribute to the deaths of many of their patients. When we use flawed models we are more likely to misunderstand the situation, the variables that matter, and the cause and effect relationships between them. Because of such misunderstandings we often take suboptimal actions, like draining so much blood out of patients that they die from it.
長期以來，人們相信放血療法能治癒多種疾病。這種錯誤的信念，實際上導致醫生間接造成了許多患者的死亡。當我們使用有缺陷的模型時，更容易誤解情境、錯判關鍵變量，以及混淆其間的因果關係。而這類誤解往往會讓我們採取欠佳的行動——就像放血療法一樣，因抽取過多血液導致患者死亡。
Better models mean better thinking. The degree to which our models accurately explain reality is the degree to which they improve our thinking. Understanding reality is the name of the game. Understanding not only helps us decide which actions to take but helps us remove or avoid actions that have a big downside that we would otherwise not be aware of. Not only do we understand the immediate problem with more accuracy, but we can begin to see the second-, third-, and higher-order consequences. This understanding helps us eliminate avoidable errors. Sometimes making good decisions boils down to avoiding bad ones.
更優秀的模型意味著更清晰的思維。我們的模型對現實的解釋越準確，就越能提升我們的思維能力。核心在於理解現實——理解不僅能幫助我們確定該採取哪些行動，還能讓我們識別並規避那些可能帶來嚴重負面影響（而我們原本無法察覺）的行動。通過理解，我們不僅能更準確地把握眼前的問題，還能預見其二次、三次乃至更高層次的後果。這種理解有助於我們消除可避免的錯誤，有時，做出好決策的關鍵就在於規避壞決策。
Flawed models, regardless of intentions, cause harm when they are put to use. When it comes to applying mental models we tend to run into trouble either when our model of reality is wrong, that is, it doesn’t survive real world experience, or when our model is right and we apply it to a situation where it doesn’t belong.
不論初衷如何，有缺陷的模型一旦投入使用，就會造成傷害。在運用心智模型時，我們遇到的問題通常分兩類：要麼所用的模型本身錯誤（即無法經受現實檢驗），要麼模型本身正確，卻被用在了不適合的情境中。
Models that don’t hold up to reality cause massive mistakes. Consider that the model of bloodletting as a cure for disease caused unnecessary death because it weakened patients when they needed all their strength to fight their illnesses. It hung around for such a long time because it was part of a package of flawed models, such as those explaining the causes of sickness and how the human body worked, that made it difficult to determine exactly where it didn’t fit with reality.
無法經受現實檢驗的模型，會導致嚴重的錯誤。以「放血療法可治病」的模型為例，它之所以造成不必要的死亡，是因為在患者需要全力對抗疾病時，放血反而削弱了他們的體力。而這種療法之所以能長期存在，是因為它與一系列解釋「疾病成因」「人體運作方式」的錯誤模型相互關聯——這些錯誤模型讓人們很難察覺放血療法本身與現實的脫節之處。
We compound the problem of flawed models when we fail to update our models when evidence indicates they are wrong. Only by repeated testing of our models against reality and being open to feedback can we update our understanding of the world and change our thinking. We need to look at the results of applying the model over the largest sample size possible to be able to refine it so that it aligns with how the world actually works.
當有證據表明模型錯誤時，若我們仍不對其進行更新，只會讓問題更加嚴重。只有通過反覆用現實檢驗模型、願意接受反饋，我們才能更新對世界的理解，調整自己的思維。我們需要在儘可能大的樣本量中觀察模型的應用結果，從而不斷優化模型，使其與世界的真實運行方式保持一致。
Sidebar: What Can the Three Buckets of Knowledge Teach Us About History?
側栏：知識的三大領域能教給我們哪些關於歷史的啟示？
# The power of acquiring new models（掌握新模型的力量）
The quality of our thinking is largely influenced by the mental models in our heads. While we want accurate models, we also want a wide variety of models to uncover what’s really happening. The key here is variety. Most of us study something specific and don’t get exposure to the big ideas of other disciplines. We don’t develop the multidisciplinary mindset that we need to accurately see a problem. And because we don’t have the right models to understand the situation, we overuse the models we do have and use them even when they don’t belong.
我們的思維質量，在很大程度上取決於頭腦中儲備的心智模型。我們不僅需要準確的模型，還需要多樣化的模型，才能洞悉事物的真相——這裡的關鍵在於「多樣性」。大多數人都專注於某一特定領域的學習，很少接觸其他學科的核心理念，因此無法培養出「跨學科思維」——而這種思維正是準確看待問題所必需的。正因缺乏理解情境所需的恰當模型，我們會過度依賴現有的少數模型，甚至在不適合的情境中強行使用它們。
You’ve likely experienced this first hand. An engineer will often think in terms of systems by default. A psychologist will think in terms of incentives. A business person might think in terms of opportunity cost and risk-reward. Through their disciplines, each of these people sees part of the situation, the part of the world that makes sense to them. None of them, however, see the entire situation unless they are thinking in a multidisciplinary way. In short, they have blind spots. Big blind spots. And they’re not aware of their blind spots. There is an old adage that encapsulates this: “To the man with only a hammer, everything starts looking like a nail.” Not every problem is a nail. The world is full of complications and interconnections that can only be explained through understanding of multiple models.
你很可能有過親身體會：工程師會習慣性地從「系統」角度思考問題；心理學家傾向於從「動機」角度分析；商人則可能關注「機會成本」與「風險收益」。憑藉各自的專業背景，他們能看到情境中符合自身認知的部分，卻無法看到全貌——除非他們運用跨學科思維。簡言之，他們都存在盲點，而且是很大的盲點，只不過自己並未察覺。有句古諺恰如其分地描述了這種情況：「手握錘子的人，看什麼都像釘子。」但並非所有問題都是「釘子」。世界充滿了複雜性與相互關聯，唯有通過多種模型的綜合理解，才能將其解釋清楚。
What Can the Three Buckets of Knowledge Teach Us About History?
知識的三大領域能教給我們哪些關於歷史的啟示？
“Every statistician knows that a large, relevant sample size is their best friend. What are the three largest, most relevant sample sizes for identifying universal principles? Bucket number one is inorganic systems, which are 13.7 billion years in size. It’s all the laws of math and physics, the entire physical universe. Bucket number two is organic systems, 3.5 billion years of biology on Earth. And bucket number three is human history, you can pick your own number, I picked 20,000 years of recorded human behavior. Those are the three largest sample sizes we can access and the most relevant.” —Peter Kaufman
「每個統計學家都知道，龐大且相關的樣本量是他們最好的助手。那麼，在識別通用原理時，三大最龐大、最相關的樣本量是什麼？第一大領域是無機系統，其時間跨度高達137億年，包含數學與物理學的所有定律，即整個物理宇宙。第二大領域是有機系統，涵蓋地球35億年的生物演化史。第三大領域是人類歷史——你可以自行界定其時間跨度，我將其定為2萬年的人類有記錄行為史。這三大領域是我們所能接觸到的最龐大、也最相關的樣本量。」——彼得·考夫曼
The larger and more relevant the sample size, the more reliable the model based on it is. But the key to sample sizes is to look for them not just over space, but over time. You need to reach back into the past as far as you can to contribute to your sample. We have a tendency to think that how the world is, is how it always was. And so we get caught up validating our assumptions from what we find in the here and now. But the continents used to be pushed against each other, dinosaurs walked the planet for millions of years, and we are not the only hominid to evolve. Looking to the past can provide essential context for understanding where we are now.
樣本量越大、與研究目標的相關性越高，基於該樣本建立的模型就越可靠。但樣本量的關鍵在於，不僅要關注空間上的覆蓋範圍，更要重視時間上的跨度。你需要儘可能回溯過去，以豐富樣本量。我們常常傾向於認為「當下世界的樣子，就是它一直以來的樣子」，因此總是依賴當下的現象來驗證自己的假設。但事實上，大陸曾經連為一體，恐龍在地球上生存了數百萬年，人類也並非唯一演化而來的人科物種。回溯過去，能為我們理解當下的處境提供至關重要的背景信息。
Removing blind spots means thinking through the problem using different lenses or models. When we do this the blind spots slowly go away and we gain an understanding of the problem.
消除盲點的方法，就是運用不同的「透鏡」或模型來分析問題。當我們這樣做時，盲點會逐漸消失，我們也能更深刻地理解問題。
We’re much like the blind men in the classic parable of the elephant, going through life trying to explain everything through one limited lens. Too often that lens is driven by our particular field, be it economics, engineering, physics, mathematics, biology, chemistry, or something else entirely. Each of these disciplines holds some truth and yet none of them contain the whole truth.
我們很像「盲人摸象」寓言中的盲人——在生活中，總是試圖通過單一且有限的視角解釋一切。而這個視角，往往由我們所處的專業領域決定，無論是經濟學、工程學、物理學、數學、生物學、化學，還是其他領域。每個學科都包含部分真理，卻沒有任何一個學科能涵蓋全部真理。
Here’s another way to look at it: think of a forest. When a botanist looks at it they may focus on the ecosystem, an environmentalist sees the impact of climate change, a forestry engineer the state of the tree growth, a business person the value of the land. None are wrong, but neither are any of them able to describe the full scope of the forest. Sharing knowledge, or learning the basics of the other disciplines, would lead to a more well-rounded understanding that would allow for better initial decisions about managing the forest.
再舉一個例子：想象一片森林。植物學家看到它時，可能會關注其生態系統；環保主義者會關注氣候變化對它的影響；林業工程師會關注樹木的生長狀況；商人則會關注土地的價值。他們的看法都沒有錯，卻沒有人能完整描述出森林的全貌。唯有通過知識共享，或學習其他學科的基礎知識，才能形成更全面的認知，從而在森林管理方面做出更優的初始決策。
Relying on only a few models is like having a 400-horsepower brain that’s only generating 50 horsepower of output. To increase your mental efficiency and reach your 400-horsepower potential, you need to use a latticework of mental models. Exactly the same sort of pattern that graces backyards everywhere, a lattice is a series of points that connect to and reinforce each other. The Great Models can be understood in the same way—models influence and interact with each other to create a structure that can be used to evaluate and understand ideas.
僅依賴少數幾個模型，就好比擁有一臺400馬力的引擎，卻只能輸出50馬力的動力。若想提升思維效率、發揮400馬力的潛能，你需要構建一個「心智模型網格」（latticework of mental models）。就像花園中常見的格子架一樣，「網格」由一系列相互連接、相互支撐的節點構成。「偉大心智模型」也可如此理解——不同模型之間相互影響、相互作用，形成一個可用於評估與理解各種理念的結構。
A group of blind people approach a strange animal, called an elephant. None of them are aware of its shape and form. So they decide to understand it by touch. The first person, whose hand touches the trunk, says, “This creature is like a thick snake.” For the second person, whose hand finds an ear, it seems like a type of fan. The third person, whose hand is on a leg, says the elephant is a pillar like a tree-trunk. The fourth blind man who places his hand on the side says, “An elephant is a wall.” The fifth, who feels its tail, describes it as a rope. The last touches its tusk, and states the elephant is something that is hard and smooth, like a spear.
一群盲人遇到了一種陌生的動物——大象。他們都不知道大象的形態，於是決定通過觸摸來了解它。第一個人摸到了大象的鼻子，說：「這動物像一條粗壯的蛇。」第二個人摸到了耳朵，覺得它像一把扇子。第三個人摸到了腿，認為大象像一根樹幹般的柱子。第四個人摸到了大象的身軀，說：「大象就像一面牆。」第五個人摸到了尾巴，形容它像一根繩子。最後一個人摸到了象牙，斷定大象堅硬光滑，像一支長矛。
In a famous speech in the 1990s, Charlie Munger summed up this approach to practical wisdom: “Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ‘em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form. You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience both vicarious and direct on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.”
在20世紀90年代的一次著名演講中，查爾斯·芒格總結了這種獲取實用智慧的方法：「首要原則是，若你只記憶零散的事實，並試圖死記硬背，那麼你其實什麼都不知道。如果這些事實無法與理論網格相互關聯，它們就無法形成可用的知識。你必須在頭腦中建立模型，並將間接經驗與直接經驗都歸納到這個模型網格中。你可能注意到，有些學生只會死記硬背、機械複述，這類學生無論在求學還是生活中都很難成功。你必須將經驗與頭腦中的模型網格相結合。」
The chief enemy of good decisions is a lack of sufficient perspectives on a problem.
「優秀決策的最大敵人，是缺乏足夠多的問題視角。」
Alain de Botton
（阿蘭·德·波頓）
# Expanding your latticework of mental models（拓展你的心智模型網格）
A latticework is an excellent way to conceptualize mental models, because it demonstrates the reality and value of interconnecting knowledge. The world does not isolate itself into discrete disciplines. We only break it down that way because it makes it easier to study it. But once we learn something, we need to put it back into the complex system in which it occurs. We need to see where it connects to other bits of knowledge, to build our understanding of the whole. This is the value of putting the knowledge contained in mental models into a latticework.
用「網格」來理解心智模型極為恰當，因為它能體現知識間相互關聯的現實與價值。世界本身並未被劃分為獨立的學科領域，我們之所以這樣拆分，只是為了方便研究。但一旦學到知識，我們就需要將其放回它所屬的複雜系統中，找到它與其他知識點的關聯，從而建立對整體的理解。這正是將心智模型中的知識納入「網格」的價值所在。
It reduces the blind spots that limit our view of not only the immediate problem, but the second and subsequent order effects of our potential solutions. Without a latticework of the Great Models our decisions become harder, slower, and less creative. But by using a mental models approach, we can complement our specializations by being curious about how the rest of the world works. A quick glance at the Nobel Prize winners list show that many of them, obviously extreme specialists in something, had multidisciplinary interests that supported their achievements.
「網格」不僅能減少限制我們看待當前問題的盲點，還能幫助我們察覺潛在解決方案可能引發的二次及更高層次後果。若沒有「偉大心智模型」構成的網格，我們的決策會變得更困難、更遲緩，也缺乏創造性。但通過運用心智模型方法，我們可以對世界其他領域的運作方式保持好奇，從而彌補自身專業領域的局限。快速瀏覽諾貝爾獎獲獎者名單便不難發現，許多獲獎者雖是某一領域的頂尖專家，卻擁有跨學科的興趣——這些興趣為他們的成就提供了重要支持。
To help you build your latticework of mental models, this book, and the books that follow, attempt to arm you with the big models from multiple disciplines. We’ll take a look at biology, physics, chemistry, economics, and even psychology. We don’t need to master all the details from these disciplines, just the fundamentals.
為幫助你構建心智模型網格，本書及後續叢書將致力於為你提供來自多學科的核心模型，涵蓋生物學、物理學、化學、經濟學乃至心理學等領域。我們無需掌握這些學科的所有細節，只需理解其基礎原理即可。
To quote Charlie Munger, “80 or 90 important models will carry about 90 percent of the freight in making you a worldly-wise person. And, of those, only a mere handful really carry very heavy freight.”
引用查爾斯·芒格的話：「80到90個重要模型，就能為你成為『世事洞明者』提供約90%的助力。而在這些模型中，真正起關鍵作用的僅有少數幾個。」
These books attempt to collect and make accessible organized common sense—the 80 to 90 mental models you need to get started. To help you understand the models, we will relate them to historical examples and stories. Our website fs.blog will have even more practical examples.
本系列叢書試圖彙集並普及這些「系統化的常識」——即你入門所需的80到90個心智模型。為幫助你理解這些模型，我們會結合歷史案例與故事進行解釋，而我們的網站fs.blog上還會提供更多實用案例。
The more high-quality mental models you have in your mental toolbox, the more likely you will have the ones needed to understand the problem. And understanding is everything. The better you understand, the better the potential actions you can take. The better the potential actions, the fewer problems you’ll encounter down the road. Better models make better decisions.
你頭腦中的「工具箱」裡，高質量的心智模型越多，就越有可能擁有理解問題所需的恰當模型。而理解是萬事之源：理解越深刻，所能採取的潛在行動就越優越；行動越優越，未來遇到的問題就越少。簡言之，更優的模型促成更優的決策。
I think it is undeniably true that the human brain must work in models. The trick is to have your brain work better than the other person’s brain because it understands the most fundamental models: ones that will do most work per unit. If you get into the mental habit of relating what you’re reading to the basic structure of the underlying ideas being demonstrated, you gradually accumulate some wisdom.
「毫無疑問，人類大腦必須依靠模型運作。關鍵在於，要讓自己的大腦比他人更高效——方法就是理解那些最基礎的模型，即單位效能最強的模型。如果你養成一種思維習慣：將所讀內容與其背後體現的基礎理念框架相關聯，你就會逐漸積累智慧。」
Charlie Munger
（查爾斯·芒格）
It takes time, but the benefits are enormous
這需要時間，但回報巨大
What successful people do is file away a massive, but finite, amount of fundamental, established, essentially unchanging knowledge that can be used in evaluating the infinite number of unique scenarios which show up in the real world.
成功人士所做的，是儲備大量但有限的「基礎、已驗證且本質上不變的知識」——這些知識可用於評估現實世界中無數獨特的情境。
It’s not just knowing the mental models that is important. First you must learn them, but then you must use them. Each decision presents an opportunity to comb through your repertoire and try one out, so you can also learn how to use them. This will slow you down at first, and you won’t always choose the right models, but you will get better and more efficient at using mental models as time progresses.
僅僅「知道」心智模型並不夠，關鍵在於先學習它們，然後運用它們。每一次決策都是一次機會：你可以梳理自己的模型儲備，嘗試運用某個模型，並在這個過程中學會如何使用它。起初，這可能會讓你放慢決策速度，而且你未必每次都能選對模型，但隨著時間推移，你運用心智模型的能力會越來越強，效率也會越來越高。
We need to work hard at synthesizing across the borders of our knowledge, and most importantly, synthesizing all of the ideas we learn with reality itself. No model contains the entire truth, whatever that may be. What good are math and biology and psychology unless we know how they fit together in reality itself, and how to use them to make our lives better? It would be like dying of hunger because we don’t know how to combine and cook any of the foods in our pantry.
我們需要努力跨越知識邊界進行綜合思考，而最重要的是，將學到的所有理念與現實本身相結合。無論「真理」的全貌如何，沒有任何一個模型能涵蓋全部真理。若不知道數學、生物學、心理學在現實中如何相互關聯，以及如何運用它們改善生活，那麼這些學科知識又有何用？這就好比廚房儲藏室裡有各種食材，卻不知道如何搭配烹飪，最終餓死一樣。
Disciplines, like nations, are a necessary evil that enable human beings of bounded rationality to simplify their goals and reduce their choices to calculable limits. But parochialism is everywhere, and the world badly needs international and interdisciplinary travelers to carry new knowledge from one enclave to another.
「學科就像國家一樣，是一種『必要之惡』——它能幫助有限理性的人類簡化目標，將選擇範圍縮小到可計算的限度內。但狹隘主義無處不在，世界迫切需要『跨國界、跨學科的探索者』，將新知識從一個領域傳播到另一個領域。」
Herbert Simon
（赫伯特·西蒙）
You won’t always get it right. Sometimes the model, or models, you choose to use won’t be the best ones for that situation. That’s okay. The more you use them, the more you will be able to build the knowledge of indicators that can trigger the use of the most appropriate model. Using and failing, as long as you acknowledge, reflect, and learn from it, is also how you build your repertoire.
你不可能永遠正確。有時，你選擇的某個或某幾個模型，可能並不是特定情境下的最佳選擇。但這沒關係——運用模型的次數越多，你就越能掌握「觸發信號」：即哪些信號出現時，應使用最合適的模型。只要你能承認錯誤、反思總結、吸取教訓，那麼「運用模型並遭遇失敗」本身，也是豐富模型儲備的一種方式。
You need to be deliberate about choosing the models you will use in a situation. As you use them, a great practice is to record and reflect. That way you can get better at both choosing models and applying them. Take the time to notice how you applied them, what the process was like, and what the results were. Over time you will develop your knowledge of which situations are best tackled through which models. Don’t give up on a model if it doesn’t help you right away. Learn more about it, and try to figure out exactly why it didn’t work. It may be that you have to improve your understanding. Or there were aspects of the situation that you did not consider. Or that your focus was on the wrong variable. So keep a journal. Write your experiences down. When you identify a model at work in the world, write that down too. Then you can explore the applications you’ve observed, and start being more in control of the models you use every day. For instance, instead of falling victim to confirmation bias, you will be able to step back and see it at work in yourself and others. Once you get practice, you will start to naturally apply models as you go through your life, from reading the news to contemplating a career move.
在特定情境下選擇模型時，你需要深思熟慮。一個很好的做法是，在運用模型後記錄過程並反思——這能幫助你在「選擇模型」與「應用模型」兩方面都有所提升。花時間留意自己是如何運用模型的、過程如何、結果怎樣。久而久之，你就能逐漸掌握「哪些情境適合用哪些模型」的知識。若某個模型一開始沒幫上忙，不要輕易放棄：進一步學習這個模型，嘗試找出失敗的具體原因——或許是你對模型的理解不足，或許是忽略了情境中的某些要素，又或許是關注了錯誤的變量。因此，不妨堅持寫日記，記錄自己的經歷；當你在現實中發現某個模型在發揮作用時，也將其記錄下來。這樣一來，你就能深入探索所觀察到的模型應用案例，並逐漸更好地掌控自己日常使用的模型。例如，面對確認偏誤（confirmation bias）時，你不再會淪為它的受害者，而是能跳出來，察覺到它在自己或他人身上的影響。一旦積累了足夠的經驗，你就會在生活中自然地運用模型——無論是閱讀新聞，還是思考職業規劃。
As we have seen, we can run into problems when we apply models to situations in which they don’t fit. If a model works, we must invest the time and energy into understanding why it worked so we know when to use it again. At the beginning the process is more important than the outcome. As you use the models, stay open to the feedback loops. Reflect and learn. You will get better. It will become easier. Results will become more profoundly useful, more broadly applicable, and more memorable. While this book isn’t intended to be a book specifically about making better decisions, it will help you make better decisions. Mental models are not an excuse to create a lengthy decision process but rather to help you move away from seeing things the way you think they should be to the way they are. Uncovering this knowledge will naturally help your decision-making. Right now you are only touching one part of the elephant, so you are making all decisions based on your understanding that it’s a wall or a rope, not an animal. As soon as you begin to take in the knowledge that other people have of the world, like learning the perspectives others have of the elephant, you will start having more success because your decisions will be aligned with how the world really is.
正如我們所見，將模型用於不適合的情境會引發問題。若某個模型發揮了作用，我們就必須投入時間與精力，理解它為何有效——這樣才能知道何時可再次使用它。在初期，過程比結果更重要。運用模型時，保持開放的心態接受反饋循環，不斷反思學習，你會越做越好，過程也會越來越輕鬆，最終的結果也會更具實用性、更廣泛的適用性，且更易記憶。儘管本書並非專門探討「如何做出更好決策」的書籍，但它的確能幫助你提升決策能力。心智模型並不是「讓決策過程變得冗長」的藉口，而是幫助你擺脫「按自己期望的方式看待事物」，轉向「按事物真實的樣子看待它們」。掌握這種認知，自然會對決策產生積極影響。目前，你就像「盲人摸象」中的盲人，只接觸到大象的一部分，因此所有決策都基於「它是牆或繩子」的認知，而非認識到它是一頭大象。一旦你開始吸收他人對世界的認知（就像了解其他人對大象的不同視角一樣），你的決策就會與世界的真實運行方式保持一致，從而更容易獲得成功。
When you start to understand the world better, when the whys seem less mysterious, you gain confidence in how you navigate it. The successes will accrue. And more success means more time, less stress, and ultimately a more meaningful life.
當你開始更好地理解世界，當事物的「為何」不再那麼神秘時，你在應對世界時會更有信心。成功會逐漸積累，而更多的成功意味著更多的時間、更少的壓力，最終帶來更有意義的人生。
Time to dive in.
現在，讓我們開始深入探索吧。
「對我們而言，地圖似乎比土地本身更真實。」
D.H. Lawrence
（D.H. 勞倫斯）
