一个无人驾驶的世界是怎样的?

核心思想:

现在交通情况如此之糟糕,想想我们的血管有几万亿条,却极少发生拥堵 ,所以借鉴生物的思想,他们的工作方式既是集体式的,又是个人式的。作者假象了一种交通方式,比如现在的列车,从A到Z,是可以到达的,但中间因为有人下车,还得在B,C,D等等地方停下。如果到了BCD不停车,只是把需要的车厢分离出来,主体部分继续行走呢?

现在路上30%的车都可能在找停车位,所以速度很慢。而且一般车里都只坐了1个乘客。很浪费。

如果一个城市的所有车都联网,那就不需要车道,车可以知道应该怎样走。

——————————————————

原文:

Wanis Kabbaj: What a driverless world could look like

Some people are obsessed by French wines. Others love playing golf or devouring literature. One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit, a bit special. I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky, from an airplane window.

有人沉迷葡萄酒。有人喜欢打高尔夫或者研究文学。我生活最大的快乐之一是,我得承认,一点特殊性。我不能告诉你我在飞机窗口天空中看城市多么享受。

Some cities are calmly industrious, like Dusseldorf or Louisville. Others project an energy that they can hardly contain, like New York or Hong Kong. And then you have Paris or Istanbul, and their patina full of history.

一些城市工业化刚刚好,比如dus..或者louisville。其他城市就不是这样,像纽约和香港。如果你知道巴黎和伊斯坦布尔,他们充满了历史感。

I see cities as living beings. And when I discover them from far above, I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space. Especially at night, when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden: the city's vascular system performing its vital function right before your eyes. But when I'm sitting in my car after an hour and a half of commute every day, that reality looks very different.

我把城市当作活生生的生命体。当我在远远高高的地方发现他们,我发现了那些组成城市框架的主要的街道和高速公路。特别是在晚上,当上班族使城市动脉看起来更加戏剧性的红色和金色:城市的血液循环系统在你的眼前表现出他生机勃勃。但当我作为上班族每天坐在车里一个半小时之后,真的看起来很不一样。

Nothing — not public radio, no podcast —

没有任何东西,没有公众广播,没有播客。

(Laughter) Not even mindfulness meditation makes this time worth living.

连值得在这个时间的苦思冥想都做不到。

Isn't it absurd that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?

我们创造了210公里每小时的汽车,但我们现在开着它的速度和19世纪马车的速度一样,难道不荒诞么?

In the US alone, we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014. With that amount of time, ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.

光在美国,2014年我们花了296亿小时在通勤上。这个时间,古代埃及人可以建造26座吉萨金字塔。

We do that in one year. A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.

这是一年的事。浪费时间、能量和人类的潜能。

For decades, our remedy for congestion was simple: build new roads or enlarge existing ones. And it worked. It worked admirably for Paris, when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings to create 85 miles of transportation-friendly boulevards. And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities. But in more established urban centers, significant network expansions are almost impossible: habitat is just too dense, real estate, too expensive and public finances, too fragile. Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick, and we should pay attention.

数十年来,我们为拥堵做的补救措施很简单:修新路或者扩修已有的路。还卓有成效,在巴黎运行得很好,当城市推倒上百座历史建筑,建立137公里的交通运输大马路。它在发展中城市还是在施行。但是在比较成熟的城市中心,扩展主要线路几乎不可能了:居住地很密集,房价过高,公共资金太少。我们的城市交通系统正在变得堵塞,变得病态,我们应该关注。

Our current way of thinking is not working. For our transportation to flow, we need a new source of inspiration.

我们现在思考的方式不管用了。想缓解交通,我们需要一个新的灵感。

So after 16 years working in transportation, my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer. She was telling me how her treatment was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system. "Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system — all the veins and arteries in our body making miracles of logistics every day." This is the moment I realized that biology has been in the transportation business for billions of years. It has been testing countless solutions to move nutrients, gases and proteins. It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.

工作在交通部门16年,我的灵感发生在和一个生物科技的客人对话。她告诉关于她的研究关于影响我们血液循环系统的特殊性质。“噢”我想,“我们的血液循环系统,每天我们身体里面的静脉和动脉创造了物流的奇迹” 这个时刻我认识到生活已经存在交通运输系统几十亿年了。它已经测试了无数的方法关于搬运养分、气体和蛋白质。它真是世界上最复杂的交通运输实验室。

So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us? I wanted to know: Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives, when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis? And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks. I don't know if you realize, but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies — 60,000 miles. That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference, inside you. What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us, not just under the surface of our skin.

所以,如果解决交通拥堵的解决方案在体内?我想知道:为什么大多数时候血液在血管中不堵塞,当我们的城市每天都拥堵。事实上这是两种不同的系统。我不知道如果你知道的话,我们每个 人都有60000英里血管在我们的体内,60000英里。它可以绕地球2.5圈在体内。意思就是到处都是血管,不只是在皮肤表面底部。

But if you look at our cities, yes, we have some underground subway systems and some tunnels and bridges, and also some helicopters in the sky. But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground, on the surface. So in other words, while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us, our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional. And so what we need is to embrace that verticality. If our surface grid is saturated, well, let's elevate our traffic.

假如你看着我们城市,是的,我们有很多地下铁系统,隧道和桥,也有很多直升机在空中。但是我们主要的交通在地上,在表面。所以换句话说,我们体内的血管是三维立体的,我们的城市交通大多是二维的。所以我们需要更加立体化。如果平面系统饱和了,那好,我们把我们的交通抬高。

This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams — that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement inside our cities. And we can go higher, and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid. Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods. And we can keep climbing, and fly. The fact that a company like Airbus is now seriously working on flying urban taxis is telling us something. Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu to attractive business-case territory. And that's an exciting moment.

这个中国的概念巴士能把交通抬高,这是在我们城市中一个大开眼界的新方法去思考空间和移动。我们可以走得更高,抬高交通像我们的电网一样。x和y在讨论测试这些磁悬浮车的未来系统。我们可以继续爬行,和飞跃。事实上有个公司像空中巴士一样正在紧张的工作在研究关于飞行城市的士,看起来还不错的样子。飞行车最后从科幻小说到令人瞩目的商业领域。真是让人振奋的时候。

So building this 3-D transportation network is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams. But it's not the only one. We have to question other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use. Just imagine a very familiar scene: You've been driving for 42 minutes. The two kids behind you are getting restless. And you're late. Do you see that slow car in front of you? Always comes when you're late, right?

所以建立3D交通系统是我们能够缓和和解决交通问题的方法之一。但不是仅此一个方法。考虑下我们的基本选择,像我们使用的车辆。想象一个熟悉的场景:你开车已经42分钟。两个孩子在你的后面吵闹。你迟到了。你会看到前方的慢吞吞的车了吗?总是在你迟到的时候出现对吗?

That driver is looking for parking. There is no parking spot available in the area, but how would he know? It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated by drivers looking for parking. Do you see the 100 cars around you? Eighty-five of them only have one passenger. Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus. So the question is: Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most? Why are we doing this to ourselves?

那辆车在找停车位。这儿没有合适的停车地点,但是他怎么知道?估计城市交通拥堵有30%大概是司机在找停车位。你看到100辆车围绕你吗?他们中的85个 只有一个乘客。那85个司机可以在一个伦敦红巴士里。所以问题是:为什么我们浪费这么多空间如果那是我们需要的?我们为什么要这样对自己。

Biology would never do this. Space inside our arteries is fully utilized. At every heartbeat, a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells into massive trains of oxygen that quickly flow throughout our body. And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either. In healthy conditions, more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized. Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities were 95 percent full, all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike and to enjoy our cities?

生物不会这样。空间在我们血管里充分应用。每次心跳,产生的血压能够为数百万血细胞压缩大量的氧气进行运输,迅速流遍全身。我们的红细胞没有被浪费。在健康条件下,大于95%的氧气被利用。你能想想如果我们的车辆在城里充满了95%,剩余的空间你得走路、骑车和享受我们的城市吗?

The reason blood is so incredibly efficient is that our red blood cells are not dedicated to specific organs or tissues; otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins. No, they're shared. They're shared by all the cells of our body. And because our network is so extensive, each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen precisely when it needs them.

血是如此不可思议、有效率,是因为我们的血细胞没有被专用于特殊的器官或者组织。否则,在我们的体内也会发生堵塞。是的,他们是共享的。他们通过我们体内的细胞共享。因为我们我们的系统是如此庞大,37万亿中的每一个在它需要的时候就会精确地得到氧气。

Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation. But for our cities, we've been stuck. We've been stuck in an endless debate between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass--transit systems. I think we should transcend this. I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars and the efficiencies of trains and buses. Just imagine. You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train, along with 1,200 passengers. The problem with urban trains is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times before your final destination.

血液是集体和个人的交通运输。但是对于我们的城市,我们已经卡住了。我们卡在是建立汽车中心社会还是大型系统这两项之间。我想我们应该超出这些。我想我们能建立结合汽车的便利性和火车巴士 效率性的交通工具。想象一下,你舒服地坐在快速和灵活的城市列车中,和1200乘客一起。城市列车的问题就是有时你得停靠5、10、15次在你的最终目的地之前。

What if in this train you didn't have to stop? In this train, wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving and become express, driverless buses that move on a secondary road network. And so without a single stop, nor a lengthy transfer, you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb. And when you get close, the section you're sitting in detaches and self-drives you right to your doorstep. It is collective and individual at the same time. This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.

如果在列车里你不需要停下呢?在列车里,当你移动变得高速的无人驾驶,进入第二个路线,车厢可以动态分离。既不需要停,也没有一个长得转换站,你坐在巴士里,前方是你的郊外。当你离近,你坐在分离的区块,你坐的部分就会分离,自动驾驶到你的目的地,它同时是整体和个体。这个在将来可能将成为分享、模块化、无人驾驶的车辆之一。

Now ... as if walking in a city buzzing with drones, flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods was not exotic enough, I think there is another force in action that will make urban traffic mesmerizing. If you think about it, the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way into a traffic grid made by and for humans. They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple, and coping with human unpredictability, which is more challenging.

现在,如果走在一个充满无人机、飞行的士、模块巴士和悬浮列车,这不天马行空,我想还有另外的方法,让交通变得更好。如果你思考一下,现在的无人驾驶汽车正在尝试适应人类的驾驶网络。他们尝试学习相对简单的交通规则,适应人的行为不确定性。

But what would happen when whole cities become driverless? Would we need traffic lights? Would we need lanes? How about speed limits? Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes. They never stop at red lights. In the first driverless cities, you would have no red lights and no lanes. And when all the cars are driverless and connected, everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum. They can drive much faster and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up or the cars around them. So instead of rigid traffic rules, flow will be regulated by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms. The result: a strange traffic that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.

但是如果整个城市都是无人驾驶会怎样?我们需要交通信号灯吗?我们需要车道吗?限速呢?血液没有跟着线路走。他们从来没有红灯停。在首个无人驾驶的城市,将没有红绿灯和车道。当所有的车都是无人驾驶和连接的,所有的事都是可预测的,反应时间很短。他们可以开得更快,可以理性地选择加速或者让周围的车先行。所以相比严格的交通规则,车流被流动的网络和不断地自己提高算法管制。结果就是:一个新型的交通混合德国高速公路那样的快捷和通畅,孟买的十字路口那样有生动地创造性。

Traffic will be functionally exuberant. It will be liquid like our blood. And by a strange paradox, the more robotized our traffic grid will be, the more organic and alive its movement will feel.

交通的功能将丰富起来。它像我们的血液那样的液体。听上去是奇怪的悖论,我们的交通网络越机械 自动化,越有机,变得更活跃 。

So yes, biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today. But this process has taken billions of years, and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations. We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system. We now have the dreams, the concepts and the technology to create 3-D transportation networks, invent new vehicles and change the flow in our cities.Let's do it.Thank you.

所以是的,生物有着所有交通运输的智慧。但是这个进程已经几十亿年,经过不断的迭代和突变。我们不能等几十亿年去改善我们的交通系统。我们现在就有想法,概念和技术去创造3D交通网络,发明新的交通工具,改变城市的流动。走起。谢谢。

原文:https://www.ted.com/talks/wanis_kabbaj_what_a_driverless_world_could_look_like/transcript?language=en

中文:http://open.163.com/movie/2017/2/6/A/MC91699EG_MC9E46U6A.html

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