I came into this period with the biases I had picked up from my experiences and the people around me. In 1966, asset prices reflected investors’ optimism about the future. But between 1967 and 1979, bad economic surprises led to big and unexpected price declines. Not just the economy and the markets but social sentiment deteriorated as well. Living through that taught me that while almost everyone expects the future to be a slightly modified version of the present, it is usually very different. But I didn’t know that in 1967. Certain that stocks would eventually rebound, I kept buying them, even as the market fell and I lost money until I figured out what was going wrong and how to deal with it. I gradually learned that prices reflect people’s expectations, so they go up when actual results are better than expected and they go down when they are worse than expected. And most people tend to be biased by their recent experiences.

我是带着我所经历的糟糕的人和事回忆这段时间的。1966年，资产价格充分反映了投资者对于未来的乐观预期。但是1967-1979年间，糟糕的经济意外的带来了一场巨大的，不期而遇的价格崩溃。不仅仅是经济和市场，连带社会风气也开始恶化。这段时期的生活教会我虽然人们总是期盼未来会比今天更好，但是通常都恰恰相反。但在1967年我并不明白这一点，我任然确信股市会反弹，我持续的买进股票，资产，甚至当市场开始下跌，我不停在损失金钱直到直到我能清晰的分辨出什么是错的，以及怎样对付他。我逐渐明白价格反映了人们的期望，所以价格会上升当实际表现比人们期盼的更好时，当比预期坏时价格下跌。而人们总是根据近期的经验来做出决定。

That fall, I started  at a local college, C. W. Post. I got in on probation because of my C average  in high school. But unlike high school, I loved college because I could learn  about things that interested me, not because I had to, so I got great grades.  I also loved living away from home and having independence.

1967年秋天，我在当地的一所大学长岛大学（私立学校）c.w post开始了学习，我高中以平均c的成绩通过了考验，不像高中，我爱大学因为我可以学习那些我感兴趣的东西，而不是我被迫学习，所以我取得了非常帮的成绩，我离家租房住，喜欢自己一个人，自由自在独立的感觉。

Learning to meditate  helped too. When the Beatles visited India in 1968 to study Transcendental  Meditation at the ashram of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, I was curious to learn it,  so I did. I loved it. Meditation has benefited me hugely throughout my life  because it produces a calm open-mindedness that allows me to think more  clearly and creatively.I majored in finance in college because of my love for  the markets and because that major had no foreign language requirement—so it  allowed me to learn what I was interested in, both inside and outside class.  I learned a lot about commodity futures from a very interesting classmate, aVietnamveteranquite a bit  older than me. Commodities were attractive because they could be traded with  very low margin requirements, meaning I could leverage the limited amount of money I  had to invest. If I could make winning decisions, which I planned to do, I  could borrow more to make more. Stock, bond, andcurrency futuresdidn’t exist back then.  Commodity futures were strictly real commodities like corn, oybeans, cattle,  and hogs. So those were the markets I started to trade and learn about.

1968年披头士访问印度，并在阿什拉姆的瑜伽圣地学习深度禅定冥想，我迫不及待的去学习冥想，并且通过深度的冥想得到很多帮助。

冥想让我受益良多，我的整个生命因为他而变得谦逊、开放、放空自己的头脑这样使我可以更清晰更创造性的思考。我在大学主修经济学，因为我的兴趣在市场也因为这门学科不需要学习外国语言---所以我可以自由学习我感兴趣的，课内课外我从一位非常有趣的同学那里学习掌握了大量的关于商品趋势的知识。

一位约战退役老兵比我仅大一点，商品非常吸引我，因为商品能以非常低的边际需求进行交易。这意味着我可以杠杆驱动限量的钱进行投资。假如我能做出稳赢的决定我计划的，那么我就可以买进越来越多。股票，证券，货币期货仿佛对我来说并不存在。商品期货被严格的限定在真实的商品比如谷物，大豆，家畜，猪等。以上都是我在商品市场开始尝试交易和学习的东东。

My college years  coincided with the era of free love, mind-expanding drug experimentation, and  rejection of traditional authority. Living through it had a lasting effect on  me and many other members of my generation. For example, it deeply impacted  Steve Jobs, whom I came to empathize with and admire. Like me, he took up  meditation and wasn’t interested in being taught as much as he loved visualizing  and building out amazing new things. The times we lived in taught us both to  question established ways of doing things—an attitude he demonstrated  superbly in Apple’s iconic “1984” and “Here’s to the Crazy Ones,” which were ad  campaigns that spoke to me.

我的大学生涯恰逢美国处于自由恋爱，心灵测试药物实验，反对传统权威的时代。经过那个时代的人比如我和属于我的那代人都有一种持续的时代影响。举例，深刻影响了史蒂夫乔布斯，我感同身受和尊敬的人。像我一样，他接受禅修冥想，对于大学教的东西不感兴趣，热衷创建令人惊奇的新事物。我们所处的时代教会我们质疑那些已经建立的成规旧俗—一种用于建立伟大苹果公司的象征标志的“1984”和“向疯狂的人致敬”-对我来说都是广告。

For the country as a  whole, those were difficult years. As the draft expanded and the numbers of  young men coming home in body bags soared, the Vietnam War split the country.  There was a lottery based on birthdates to determine the order of those who  would be drafted. I remember listening to the lottery on the radio while  playing pool with my friends. It was estimated that the first 160 or so  birthdays called would be drafted, though they read off all 366 dates. My  birthday was forty-eighth.

对于整个国家而言，60-70年代都是非常困难的时候。债台高筑，牺牲于越战的年轻人被装在裹尸袋里送回来，越战撕裂了整个国家。曾经有一种彩票基于生日决定中奖顺序。我记得我常常边和朋友们玩撞球边收听彩票的广播。估计前160左右的播报生日可能中奖，我的生日排在第48位。

I wasn’t smart  enough to be afraid of going to war because I naively thought nothing bad  could happen to me, but I didn’t want to go because I was charging forward  with my life and to put it on hold for two years seemed like an eternity. My  dad, though, was adamantly against the war and hell-bent against me going,  even though he had believed in and fought in the prior two wars. He had me  examined by a doctor who discovered I hadhypoglycemia, which gave me anexemption. When I look  back on that, I see that I got out of serving on a technicality—that my dad  was essentially helping me dodge thedraft—which now gives me mixed feelings. I feel  guilty I didn’t do my part, relieved I didn’t experience the harmful  consequences so many others suffered from the war, and appreciative of my dad  for the love behind his effort to protect me. I have no idea what I’d do if I  were faced with the same situation today.

我不够聪明也害怕参军去战场，我天真的以为坏事情不会发生在我身上，我想自己掌握自己的生活，参军两年似乎是一场无穷尽的事情。我父亲，一个老兵却坚定的反对这场战争，并坚决反对我参军，即使他坚信和参加了上两次战争。我让我做了检查并发现我得了低血糖，就这样我有了一次豁免权。每当我回想这事，我明白父亲帮我我技术性的躲避了征兵和服役。当然这件事也带给我一种复杂的感觉，一种内疚感我没有尽自己的责任。当然也使我免于遭受战争带来的一系列有害的伤害，感谢父亲为爱而保护我所做出的的努力。如果今天我遇到同样的情况我任然不知道怎么面对。

As America’s  politics and economy deteriorated, the country’s mood became depressed. TheTet Offensivein  January 19681seemed  to convey the U.S. was losing the war; that same year Lyndon Johnson decided  not to run for a second term and Richard Nixon was elected, beginning an even  more difficult era. At the same time, France’s president Charles de Gaulle  wasturning in his  country’s dollars for goldbecause he was concerned the U.S. was printing  money to finance its spending. Watching the news and the market move  together, I began to see the whole picture and understand the cause-effect  relationship between the two.Around 1970 or 1971,  I noticed gold was starting totick upin world markets. Until then, like most people, I  hadn’t paid much attention tocurrency ratesbecause the currency system had been stable  throughout my lifetime. But as currency events increasingly appeared in the  news, they caught my attention. I learned that other currencies were fixed  against the dollar, that the dollar was fixed against gold, that Americans  weren’t allowed to own gold (though I wasn’t sure why), and that other  central banks could convert their paper dollars into gold, which was how they  were assured that they wouldn’t be hurt if the U.S. printed too many dollars.  I heard our government officials pooh-pooh the worries about the dollar and  the excitement about gold, assuring us that the dollar was sound and that  gold was just an archaic metal.Speculatorswere behind the rising gold prices, they said, and  they would get burned once things settled down. Back then, I still assumed  that government officials were honest.

随着美国政治和经济的双重恶化，整个国家的风气都变坏了。1968年1月的春季攻势似乎要带着美国走向失败；童年林登约翰逊总统决定不参加第二次总统选举，理查德尼克松当选，开启了一场更困难的时代。同时法国总统戴高乐用黄金替代美金，因为他担心美国印发货币用于自己的开销。看到这段新闻和市场的反应一致，我开始明白整个局面并了解关于两者的因果关系。1970-71年间，我注意到黄金价格在世界市场开始上扬。直到此时，像绝大多数人一样，我没过多的留意汇率因为货币系统自我整个生涯都很稳定。但是当货币时间逐渐在新闻中开始增加报道时，引起了我的注意。我了解到其他货币与美金是紧密关联的，而美元与黄金是紧密关联的，美国不被允许拥有的黄金（我不确定为什么），其他国家的中央银行可以将他们的纸质美元兑换成黄金，这样就能保证如果美国印发超量的美元，而他们自己不会受到伤害。听闻美国的政府机构非常蔑视对美元的担忧和对于黄金的兴奋。并向我们保证美元是坚挺的，而黄金只是一种古老的金属罢了。投机玩家隐藏在金价上升之后，投机者说过，他们会被烧焦的一旦局势稳定下来。在那时，我依旧假设政府机构是诚实的。

In the spring of  1971, I graduated college with a nearly perfect grade point average, which  got me into Harvard Business School. The summer before I started at HBS, I got  a job as a clerk on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. By midsummer,  the dollar problem began to reach a breaking point. There were reports that  Europeans wouldn’t accept dollars from American tourists. The global monetary  system was in the process of breaking down, but that wasn’t clear to me quite  yet.

1971年春，我以接近完美的学分成绩从大学毕业，就是这样我进入哈佛了商学院。在hbs学习前的夏天，我得到了一份在纽约证券交易所第一层做职员的工作。夏季中期，美元问题达到一个零界点。据报道欧洲拒绝接受美国旅游者的美元。全球的金融系统处于崩溃的途中，只是我当时还不太明了。

Then, on Sunday,  August 15, 1971, President Nixon went on television to announce that the U.S.  wouldrenegeon  its promise to allow dollars to be turned in for gold, which led the dollar  to plummet. Since government officials had promised not to devalue the  dollar, I listened with amazement as he spoke. Instead of addressing the  fundamental problems behind the pressure on the dollar, he continued to blame  speculators, crafting his words to make it sound like he was moving to  support the dollar while his actions were doing just the opposite. “Floating  it,” as Nixon was doing, and then letting it sink like a stone, looked a lot  like a lie to me. Over the decades since, I’ve repeatedly seen policymakers  deliver such assurances immediately before currency devaluations, so I  learned not to believe government policymakers when they assure you that they  won’t let a currency devaluation happen. The more strongly they make those  assurances, the more desperate the situation probably is, so the more likely  it is that a devaluation will take place.

接着在1971年8月15日周日，尼克松总统在电视上发表了公开演说：美国将拒绝就美元兑换黄金做出承诺，这将使美元直线下跌。既然政府机构已经保证了不会使美元贬值，我在聆听的时候目瞪口呆。没有定位美元压力背后的基本问题，尼克松总统还在继续谴责投机者，措辞巧妙的让民众相信他在持续支持美元，而他的所作所为恰恰相反。“让她浮起来”随着尼克松的动作，然后让美元像石头一样下沉，在我看来像一个大谎言。过了几十年，我已经多次看到决策者们在货币贬值时立刻传递那样的保证。所以我学到不要相信政府的决策者当他们向你保证他们不会任由货币贬值发生。他们越是保证，情况可能越糟糕，所以更可能的情况是货币贬值正在发生。

As I listened to  Nixon speak, I wondered what those developments meant. Money as we’d known  it—a claim check to get gold—no longer existed. That couldn’t be good. It  seemed clear to me that the era of promise that Kennedy had personified was  unraveling. Monday morning I  walked onto the floor of the exchange expecting pandemonium. There was  pandemonium all right, but not the sort I expected: Instead of falling, the  stock market jumped about 4 percent, a significant daily gain.

当我倾听尼克松讲话的时候，我很好奇那些情况发展意味着什么。金钱就像我们已知的那样，一个得到确认的支票可以获得黄金—不再是了。那不可好。对我来说仿佛肯尼迪总统人格化的承诺的时代消散了。周一早上我步行走进交易所一层预料之中的喧闹。已经整晚都在吵闹了，但不是我期望的那种：没有下跌，股票上扬了4%，一个意味声长的日收益。

To try to understand  what was happening, I spent the rest of that summer studying past currency  devaluations. I learned that everything that was going on—the currency  breaking its link to gold and devaluing, the stock market soaring in  response—had happened before, and that logical cause-effect relationships  made those developments inevitable. My failure to anticipate this, I  realized, was due to my being surprised by something that hadn’t happened in  my lifetime, though it had happened many times before. The message that  reality was conveying to me was “You better make sense of what happened to  other people in other times and other places because if you don’t you won’t  know if these things can happen to you and, if they do, you won’t know how to  deal with them.”

为了试着搞明白发生了什么，那个夏天剩下的时间我都在研究过去的货币贬值。我掌握了与之相关的每件事---货币与黄金的链接断开与贬值，股票市场随之上扬—在此之前已经发生的事情，导致这一切不可避免发生的因果关系的逻辑。我预测失败的原因，我理解，归因于我的在我生命中还没有发生的那些能引起我吃惊的事情。尽管以前已经发生过多次了。现实传递给我的信息是“你最好弄明白其他人在其他时间和其他地方发生了什么，如果没有，你不会知道那些事情是否会发生在你身上，如果发生在你身上，你不会知道如何处理”。

Enrolling at Harvard Business School that fall, I was excited about meeting the extraordinarily intelligent people from all over the planet who would be my classmates. And high as my expectations were, the experience was even better. I lived with people from all over the world and we partied together in an exciting, eclectic environment. There was no teacher in front of a blackboard telling us what to remember and no tests to see whether we remembered it. Instead we were given actual case studies to read and analyze. Then we gathered in groups to thrash out what we would do if we were in the shoes of the people in those situations. This was my kind of school! 

1971年秋天在哈佛商学院登记后，我很兴奋因为我将和来此全世界的卓越优秀的人做同学。我的期望也是如此，事实经验比预想的更好。我和来自世界各地的人住在一起，处于一种兴奋、折中的气氛当中。没有老师教导我们什么该记住，没有测验检验我们是否记住了。相反我们都有实际的案例用于分析和阅读。我们被分成小组反复演练如果我们处于那样的情况下如何处理。这就是我中意的那种学校。

你好 ：我是007-4478 李小军，以上是我个人的翻译，可能不会太准确，但我尽量保证不会离原文太远，因为我也在学习其中的经济学知识和原则，我不喜欢我偏离了正确的东西。

第二节太长了所以我分段来翻译，并注解，请原谅。

本段描述了作者从1967-1972年间的事情，主要是长岛大学和哈佛商学院的学习经历和一部分假期的实习工作经历。显然作者对这段回忆不是很开心，除了上学的时光，所以我在下面会分开讲。

显然在这段工作时间是不会愉快的，因为美国正陷入越战泥潭，连续对外作战，造成美国经济和社会水平持续下降，自由恋爱，毒品，滥交，反战，反传统等风靡一时。股市，证券，期货都不好，作者在此期间简单讲述了他经历的事情，很有趣，但让人印象深刻，比如金本位，比如美元超发，比如货币贬值，比如nifty 50, 就如今天的500标准普尔指数一样；比如尼克松总统的谎言，政客们往往指鹿为马，黑白颠倒。

上学的时光是美好的，无论东西。作者在大学享受了无忧无虑的自由时光，和来自全世界的最好，最优秀的人一起讨论、学习、进步，不亦乐乎。同时他了解了商品期货。当然作为优秀生他获得了美林证券的实习生机会，并选择了冷门的商品期货。经历了石油危机和美元贬值和超发。

哦！作者的年龄到了应该参军，保家卫国的时候了，可作者的父亲，一个二战和韩战的老兵却出乎意料的反对他参加，并通过各种手段成功避免了服役。伟大的父亲对吗？否则我们可能会少一个经济学大师，当然作者的命运可能会完全不同。在战场上丢了小命也不一定的。

作者提到了披头士和乔布斯还有瑜伽。很多成功人士都深受瑜伽的影响，还都很推崇瑜伽，那么我们还有什么理由不接受那？原则第一条：就是从比你优秀的人那里直接拿来并接受他的原则。还提到了著名的 “1984”和“致敬那些疯狂的人”两则广告，推荐给广告人看看，其中“1984”我早就看过了，可能当时很精彩 ，现在看有点不过尔尔的感觉。

好了到重头戏了，也是我很感兴趣的经济学的知识环节了。

作者在描述中夹杂了大量的经济学常识和术语，其中引起我注意的是以下：

currency rates 货币汇率

Speculators 投机者 索罗斯是不是投机者？

currency devaluations 货币贬值

gold standard  金本位。

Stocks 资本

brokerage 掮客 （中间人，经济，古代中国有种行业叫 牙人，大家可以百度）；

oil shock- 石油危机

stock market took a dive--股市跳水

hypoglycemia 低血糖

exemption 豁免权

dominoes 多米诺骨牌

debt-financed  债务融资

easy-credit--放松信贷 扩大信用。

defaulted--违约

我来试着串一串作者故事中的一条隐线：美元自第二次世界大战后获得全球货币霸主地位后，开始超发货币，并放松信贷，就是鼓励大家贷款，贷款利率低，政策优惠，鼓励消费，支出。但是美元是和黄金挂钩的，而其他货币是和美元挂钩的，美元超发，而黄金不变，所以美元贬值，但为了弥补因超发带来的债务危机，只能用公共债务形式来偿还，美元贬值而用纸币还债，进一步超发美元，连带全球国家接盘美国的债务。这就是目前美国每年的巨额国债，但是美国并不担心，只要美元坚挺就行。所以本书无意间道出了美元如今的情况，美国不断通过政治、军事手段确保美元的霸主地位，但各国有对策，通过兑换黄金，减持美元，把黄金拉回本国来减少风险。当然最主要是保护本国的经济，而中国的人民币是美元最警惕的，因为美元当年就是打压英镑而上位的，他当然不会允许故事重演。

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