本周美国国债收益率曲线中长端上移，短端下移，较周初略微陡峭。

各期限到期收益率变动见下表：

各期限信用利差较周初均有不同程度收窄，投资级债券CDS指数下降。

3个月与10年期国债、2年期与10年期国债利差较周初分别扩大9.97BP、0.25BP。

#经济数据方面，12月PPI（季调）环比下降0.2%，创2016年以来最大跌幅；

密歇根大学消费者信心指数报90.7，大幅低于预期值96.8、前值98.3；

工业产出（季调）环比增长上修至0.4%，高于预期值0.2%，略低于去年同期。

资本利用率（季调）下修至78.6%，为2016年以来最高水平。

经济增长确有减速，但言衰退为时尚早。

我们来看一看联储官方态度。1月16日新出炉的褐皮书对整体经济有做如下描述：

"Economic activity increased in most of the U.S., with eight of twelve Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth. Nonauto retail sales grew modestly, as several Districts reported more holiday traffic compared with last year. Auto sales were flat on balance. The majority of Districts indicated that manufacturing expanded, but that growth had slowed, particularly in the auto and energy sectors. New home construction and existing home sales were little changed, with several Districts reporting that sales were limited by rising prices and low inventory. Commercial real estate activity was also little changed on balance. Most Districts reported modest to moderate growth in activity in the nonfinancial services sector, though a few Districts noted that growth there had slowed. The energy sector expanded at a slower pace, and lower energy prices contributed to a pullback in the industry's capital spending expectations. The agriculture sector struggled as prices generally remained low despite recent increases. Overall, lending volumes grew modestly, though a few Districts noted that growth had slowed. Outlooks generally remained positive, but many Districts reported that contacts had become less optimistic in response to increased financial market volatility, rising short-term interest rates, falling energy prices, and elevated trade and political uncertainty."

总结一下：

1、 全美经济活动大体增加，增速温和适中；

2、 非汽车零售消量增速温和；

3、 汽车销量持平；

4、 大部分联邦储备区制造业扩张时伴随着增速放缓，特别是汽车制造与能源领域；

5、 新屋开工量与成屋销售量受制于房价上涨与库存减少基本未变；

6、 商业地产方面各项数据持平；

7、 非金融服务业增速温和适中，部分区放缓；

8、 能源领域增长缓慢，能源价格降低使得投资预期下降；

9、 农产品价格迟迟不升使得农业部门日子难过；

10、 贷款量温和增长，部分区增速放缓；

11、 经济前景总体看好，但因金融市场波动率上升、短期利率上升、能源价格下跌与贸易、政治方面不确定性升级，部分区contact的乐观态度不如从前。

对比一下2018年12月褐皮书中联储看法：

"Most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported that their economies expanded at a modest or moderate pace from mid-October through late November, though both Dallas and Philadelphia noted slower growth compared with the prior Beige Book period. St. Louis and Kansas City noted just slight growth. On balance, consumer spending held steady – District reports on growth of nonauto retail sales appeared somewhat weaker while auto sales tended to improve, particularly for used cars. Tourism reports varied but generally kept pace with the economy. Tariffs remained a concern for manufacturers, but a majority of Districts continued to report moderate growth in the sector. All Districts reported growth in nonfinancial services – ranging from slight to strong. New home construction and existing home sales tended to decline or hold steady, while construction and leasing of nonresidential structures tended to rise or remain flat. Overall, lending volumes grew modestly, although a few Districts noted some slowing. Agricultural conditions and farm incomes were mixed; some Districts noted impacts from excessive rainfall and from tariffs, which have constrained demand. Most energy sectors saw little change or modest growth. Most Districts reported that firms remained positive; however, optimism has waned in some as contacts cited increased uncertainty from impacts of tariffs, rising interest rates, and labor market constraints."

再对比一下2018年1月：

"Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that the economy continued to expand from late November through the end of the year, with 11 Districts reporting modest to moderate gains and Dallas recording a robust increase. The outlook for 2018 remains optimistic for a majority of contacts across the country. Most Districts reported that non-auto retail sales expanded since the last report and that auto sales were mixed. Some retailers highlighted that holiday sales were higher than expected. Residential real estate activity remained constrained across the country. Most Districts reported little growth in home sales due to limited housing inventory. Nonresidential activity continued to experience slight growth. Most manufacturers reported modest growth in overall business conditions. Reports indicated that some manufacturers increased capital expenditures over the reporting period. Most reporting Districts noted continued growth in transportation activity. Loan volumes in many Districts were steady. Among reporting Districts, agricultural conditions were mixed and energy contacts described a slight uptick in activity."

经济增长显著减速。

同时三位地方联储主席齐发鸽派言论：

“It is possible that some additional rate increases will be appropriate. But making that judgment is not urgent and should depend on a careful look at the data and gathering additional insight into where our destination is, how much further we need to go to reach it and how quickly we should get there.”

——堪萨斯联储主席George

“There's no need to snuff the economy before it really heats up.”

“Right now I’m not seeing evidence of pressures that would warrant raising interest rates further.”

——明尼阿波利斯联储主席KashKari

"My outlook is for continued growth above trend, decelerating to trend, but there's uncertainty.We're just at a good point for sort of pausing. Let's look at the layout of the land."

——芝加哥联储主席Evans

所以，目前情况是这样的：

鉴于上述各种“modest”、“moderate”、“slight“、“slow”，联储决定pause hiking。

增长放缓，暂停加息。

但是衰退？某些媒（投）体（行）不要见得风是得雨。