1）第一次涉水此类文章希望大家多多关照点赞评论留言缺一不可切切

2）资浅业界小佬浅度分析行业动态。以鼓励为主不得棒槌

3）此文唯一可圈可点的就是作者笔耕不辍孜孜不倦

是为前言

从1956的黑板会议到2021的牛鞭效应

当晶体管之父肖克利会在手上拿着一支粉笔，站在黑板前面写下大家的想法。急性子的布拉顿会在房间后面来回踱步，然后大声喊出自己对肖克利的观点不认同的地方，有时甚至会用一美元打赌这些想法是不可行的。肖克利可不喜欢打赌输钱。“在看到他拿出10个一角硬币还给我的时候，我就知道他肯定气得不轻。”布拉顿回忆道。肖克利和约翰·巴丁、沃尔特·布莱顿三人共同发明了晶体管。他们并因此获得1956年的诺贝尔物理奖。

Father of the transistor, William Shockley, together with John Bardeen and Walter Brattain, was jointly awarded the 1956 Nobel Prize in Physics for "their researches on semiconductors and their discovery of the transistor effect". Known as "blackboard sessions" or "chalk talks", Shockley would stand, chalk in hand, scribbling down ideas, Brattain, even brash, would pace around the back of the room and shout out objections to some of Shockley's suggestions, sometimes betting a dollar they wouldn't work. Shockley didn't like losing. "I finally found out he was annoyed when he paid me off once in ten dimes," Brattain recalled.

70年之后肖克利肯定没有预测到他他们发明的半导体被用来当作贸易战争最有力的武器他们也没有在日本茨城县某工厂的一场大火把全球的汽车产业又一次推向了困境。

Seventy years later Shockley certainly didn't predict that the semiconductors they invented would be used as the most powerful weapon in a trade war, nor did they when a fire at a factory in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, threw the global auto industry into predicament once again.

Fire in Renesas plant / 瑞萨工厂火灾

从2020年开始几乎所有的电子厂商都在哀叹芯片的短缺汽车厂商因为没有足够的芯片而被迫停工甚至解雇工人客户需要提前8到12周下单甚至更长芯片代工厂取消了给客户所有的折扣却依然订单如雪片而且无法满足产能到了2021年情况没有改善而且是愈演愈烈。

From 2020 onwards almost all electronics manufacturers are bemoaning the shortage of chips, car manufacturers are forced to shut down or even lay off workers because there are not enough chips, customers need to order 8 to 12 weeks in advance or even longer, chip foundries canceled all discounts to customers but still orders like snowflakes and can not meet capacity. By 2021 the situation has not slightly improved but is getting even worse.

问苍天问大海为什么？！！！很多小厂商都欲哭无泪抱着吉他在芯片厂门口吟唱为什么受伤的总是me

给我一片芯再给我一支烟说走就走我有的是时间我不想在未来的日子里独自哭着无法往前

笔者作为业界中人士进行了分（ctrl·c）析（ctrl·v）供大家深刻的思考（茶前饭后谈资）

The author, as an unknown authoritative engineer, in the industry, carried out the deep analysis (ctrl-c) (ctrl-v) for your consideration (after dinner talk)

牛鞭效应 这是指供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，就是订单信息流从最终客户端向上游供应链传递时，因为无法有效地共享信息，使得信息扭曲而逐级放大，从而导致需求信息出现越来越大的波动。这种信息扭曲的放大作用在图形上很像一个甩起的牛鞭，因此被形象地称为“牛鞭效应”。

The bullwhip effect - This is a kind of demand variation amplification phenomenon in the supply chain, that is, the order information flow from the final customer to the upstream supply chain, because of the inability to effectively share information, so that information distortion and amplification at each level, thus leading to increasing fluctuations in-demand information. This amplification of information distortion graphically resembles a thrown-up bullwhip, so it is imaginatively called the "bullwhip effect".

牛鞭效应

当疫情导致在家办公大范围普及时，PC及配件出货量出现明显上升，从而延续至今。被五大厂商垄断全球PC市场，出现芯片“囤货”和超额订购。另一面汽车行业大都采用丰田始创的“JIT（Just-in-Time）”生产模式，不敢像手机行业那样囤积很多库存和占用宝贵的现金流。疫情渐渐回复汽车销售开始回升时，汽车厂商却发现无法继续从半导体供应商那里获得充足的供应。于是，又出现了汽车芯片荒。

When the epidemic led to the widespread popularity of working from home, there was a significant increase in PC and accessory shipments, which still continues now. The global PC market was monopolized by five major manufacturers, and there was "hoarding" and over-ordering of chips. On the other hand, the automotive industry mostly adopted the "JIT (Just-in-Time)" production model pioneered by Toyota, not daring to hoard a lot of inventory and take up valuable cash flow like the cell phone industry. When the epidemic gradually returned to car sales began to pick up, automakers found that they could not continue to get sufficient production capacity from semiconductor suppliers. Thus, there was another chip shortage in the automotive industry.

屋漏偏逢连夜雨

2月份德州奥斯汀大雪导致汽车芯片最大制造商之一的恩智浦半导体(NXP)和三星被迫关闭晶圆厂

3月份日本瑞萨一座以车用半导体为主的12吋晶圆厂起火，

2020年是台湾56年来首次没有台风通过，又出现了严重缺水的问题，作为给车用芯片救火队员的台积电花费2亿新台币从外地预定上百辆卡车运水。

Misfortunes never come singly.

In February Heavy snowfall in Austin, Texas forced NXP Semiconductors (NXP), one of the largest manufacturers of automotive chips, to close their fabs, as well as Samsung electronics.

In March a 12-inch fab in Renesas, Japan, with main force automotive semiconductors, caught fire.

2020 was also the first time in 56 years that no typhoon passed through Taiwan, and there was a serious water shortage. TSMC, which acts as the firefighter for automotive chips, spent 200 million NTD to book hundreds of trucks to transport water from out-of-towns.

chip dries / 干涸的芯片

这无疑对芯片的供应短缺是“雪上加霜”

This is undoubtedly "adding to the shortage" of supply of chips.

更甚的是某大国政府对他国的半导体和电子设备企业的限制，特别是对以一个大国之力对一个特定企业的“围堵”，影响的不单单是几家公司，而是全球供应链的正常市场供需。限制先进半导体制造设备出口，导致全球半导体供应链的新增产能延迟或受阻。导致抓紧“囤货”的不止一家公司，所有被列入实体清单的企业都是诚惶诚恐，开始寻找“国产替代”，晶圆制造的复杂性、交货期延长和盲目“囤货”导致了“短缺博弈”。在紧急情况下，人们会失去理性而疯狂抢购某些被视为“救命稻草”的商品。“非典”的醋，“新冠“的板蓝根，都短期成了“紧缺物资”。然而半导体芯片的生产却没那么容易调整生产。交期延长让“牛鞭效应”达到最大程度的扭曲。

What's more, restrictions by a major government on some semiconductor and electronic equipment companies in another country, especially the "blocking" of a specific company, affect not just a few companies, but the normal market supply and demand of the global supply chain. Restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment have led to delays or disruptions in new capacity in the global semiconductor supply chain. All the companies included in the list of entities are in fear and have started to look for "domestic alternatives", the complexity of wafer manufacturing, longer delivery times, and blind "stockpiling". The complexity of chip manufacturing, extended lead times, and blind "hoarding" led to a "shortage game" furthermore. In an emergency, people will lose their rationality and rush to buy certain goods that are regarded as "life-saving". The "SARS" vinegar, the radix isatidis in coronavirus pandemic, have become a short-term "shortage of goods". However, the production of semiconductor chips is not so easy to adjust. Lead time is extended so that the "bullwhip effect" to the maximum degree of distortion into a serious social problem.

是天灾还是人祸呢？你懂的。

Is it an act of God or a man-made disaster? You tell me.

砖家给分析一哈这行业到底si咋整得咧

大师发言不敢肆意篡改照搬全抄。其下是为行业动态其一

直至以前的霸主英特爾今年宣布跨足晶圓製造服務，這點我看來相當的諷刺，因為一開始英特爾看不起製造，認為做不大。/// 美國至少工程師、任何人敬業程度不如台灣。在美國製造業幾十年前就不紅了，他們做創投、行銷，金融業或其他，都比在製造業吃香，台灣的優勢是很多優秀敬業的人願意投入製造業。/// 美國的胡蘿蔔跟棍子、短期美國聯邦與州政府的幾年補貼，仍不能彌補長期競爭劣勢。

大师论坛

I don't dare to tamper with the master's speech and copy it all.

Until the former juggernaut, Intel announced this year that it was moving into wafer manufacturing services, which seems rather ironic to me because at first Intel looked down on manufacturing and thought it wouldn't do much. /// The U.S. at least engineers and people are not as dedicated as Taiwan. In the U.S. manufacturing industry decades ago is not red, they do venture capital, marketing, financial industry, or other, are more popular than in the manufacturing industry, Taiwan's advantage is that many good and dedicated people are willing to invest in the manufacturing industry. /// U.S. carrots and sticks, short-term U.S. federal and state subsidies for a few years, still can not make up for the long-term competitive disadvantage.

如果一个晶圆厂从零开始，初始投资需要500亿日元或更多，如果连续增加设施，投资可能达到1000亿日元。而设备材料的晶圆硅片厂商SUMCO首席执行官桥本估计，"除非（300毫米晶圆价格）上升50-60%，否则我们不会超过盈亏平衡点。然而这样显而易见的想法不能逃避他们作为企业供应商的责任。如果在目前的半导体短缺问题得到解决后，晶圆没有运到，日本公司将受到世界工业界的谴责。出于这个原因，预计该公司将很快做出决定，这取决于涨价的进展。--- 以前根据半导体周期来对投资做判断的半导体设备商们现在已经没有这样的犹豫不决闲情了是为行业动态其二

If a fab starts from scratch, an initial investment of 50 billion yen or more is required, and if facilities are added consecutively, the investment could reach 100 billion yen. Hashimoto, CEO of wafer material and equipment maker SUMCO, estimates that "unless (the price of 300mm wafers) rises by 50-60%, we will not exceed the break-even point. However, such an obvious idea cannot escape their responsibility as corporate suppliers. If the wafers do not arrive after the current semiconductor shortage is resolved, the Japanese company will be condemned by the world industry. For this reason, the company is expected to make a decision soon, depending on the progress of the price increase. -- Semiconductor equipment vendors who used to make judgments about their investments based on the semiconductor cycle now have no such leisure to hesitate.

为了继续对苏联施加外交压力，在1971年7月和10月，基辛格两度秘密访问中华人民共和国，与时任中华人民共和国国务院总理周恩来协商，並负责美国政府的对华政策。这为1972年尼克松访华的中美高峰会议铺路以及为中美关系正常化奠定了基石，结束了中华人民共和国和美国两国间23年的敌对与隔阂，从而完成了战略性的外交政策转变。然而基辛格打开的国际化的这扇大门 2019年开始又渐渐的被关上了据说是为了星条旗永不落。从而似乎对芯片产业链也造成了些许影响。拜登的基础设施建设计划处处显示出，冷战新时代的竞争更多是在技术而不是军事上。还有数十亿美元支持的产业政策（拜登的白宫避免使用这个词），比如先进半导体制造业回流美国，减少对中国供应商的依赖。是为行业动态其三

In order to continue diplomatic pressure on the Soviet Union, Kissinger made two secret visits to the People's Republic of China in July and October 1971 to consult with then-Premier Zhou Enlai and take charge of the U.S. government's policy toward China. This paved the way for the U.S.-China summit in 1972 with Nixon's visit to China and laid the cornerstone for the normalization of U.S.-China relations, ending 23 years of hostility and separation between the People's Republic of China and the United States, thus completing a strategic foreign policy shift. However, this door of internationalization opened by Kissinger has been gradually closed again since 2019 supposedly for the Stars and Stripes to never fall. Thus it seems to have had a slight impact on the chip industry chain as well.

The infrastructure plan is laced with indicators of a new age of Cold War competition, more technological than military. There are billions for industrial policy — a word the Biden White House avoids — like the movement of advanced semiconductor manufacturing back to the United States, diminishing reliance on Chinese suppliers.

深度分析卡老师登场的资本论

其一

逆全球化的新冷战竞争和市场参入高壁垒导致行业的垄断独占使得芯片行业出现短缺时无法替代甚至很容易被当作贸易战争的武器大棒挥过来不可抵挡

The first rule of Fight Club --- The new Cold War competition of counter-globalization and high barriers to market entry leads to monopolies and monopolies in the industry, making the chip industry irreplaceable when there is a shortage, and even easily used as a weapon of the trade war, a big stick that can be completely irresistible.

其二

新数据时代的无形资产无限价值化导致GAFAM各家独大巨擘撑天

而在背后技术支持数据时代催生GAFAM各种变革的包括芯片产业在内的实体制造业得不到充分的重视和投资者的青睐

近期出现对芯片行业投资只是短期的政治而不是市场主导的投资并不能解决行业根本问题

The infinite value of intangible assets in the new technical information era has led to the dominance of GAFAM giants.

But the real manufacturing industry, including the chip field, which supports the technical information innovations in GAFAM, has not been given sufficient attention and favored by investors.

Recent investments in the chip industry are only short-term political rather than market-driven investments and cannot solve the fundamental problems of the industry

其三

无法停止，不可避免，欲望催生欲望，欲望的资本主义。新冠病毒进一步扩大了贫困的差距，加速了社会的龟裂。

Unstoppable, inevitable, desire begets desire, desire capitalism. The new coronavirus pandemic further widens the gap of poverty and accelerates the cracking of society.

所谓“经济”一词的出处是“经世济民”（整治天下，拯救民众）——是日本思想家福泽谕吉对英文economy一词的翻译。后来逆向引进中国。出典来自《抱朴子·审举》谓：“故披洪范而知箕子有经世之器，览九术而见范生怀治国之略。”《晋书·殷浩传简文（司马昱）答书》：“足下沈识淹长，思综通练，起而明之，足以经济。” “经世济民”，是以探求经济运行规律为己任的经济学人不懈追求的目标，它将个人的知识、能力奉献社会，将个人的成才抱负融入为最广大人民造福之中，这是社会进步需要的个体素质的完善与人格信念的升华。云云云云。

The origin of the word "economy" is "Jing Shi Ji Min" - a translation of the English word economy by the Japanese thinker Fukuzawa Yukichi. It was later introduced to China in reverse. you can you translate, blablablabla. Cloudy cloudy cloudy cloudy.