英文早读第147篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
While two years may sound like a short time when included in a table of performance, it may feel like a long time when your net worth is down 50%. I think you run this sort of short-term risk with virtually any money manager operating in stocks and it is a factor to consider in deciding the portion of your capital to commit to equities. To date in 1969, Bill is down about 15%, which I believe to be fairly typical of most money managers. Bill, of course, has not been in control situations or workouts, which have usually tended to moderate the swings in BPL year-to-year performance. Even excluding thers factors, I believe his performance would have been somewhat more volatile (but not necessarily poorer by any means) than mine - his style is different, and while his typical portfolio (under most conditions) would tend to have a mild overlap with mine, there would always be very significant differences.
尽管两年当被包含在业绩表格中听起来很短，但是当你净值下跌50%时你会感觉很长。我认为当你和几乎任何运作股票的资金管理人时都会经历这种风险，并且这是一个因素决定要把多少比例资产交易到股票中。1969年截至现在，比尔下跌大约15%，我认为大多数资金管理人的典型结果都是这样。比尔，当然，还没进入到控制类交易和套利类，这些通常能够缓和巴菲特合伙基金年度业绩的浮动。即使排除这些因素，我认为他的表现某种程度也是更加比我不稳定的（这不是说一定会比任何方法更糟）——他的风格是不同的，尽管他的典型投资组合（在大多数情况下）倾向于我的有轻微重叠，也经常会有很大的区别。
Bill has achieved his results working with an average of 5 to 10 million. I consider the three most likely negative factors in his future to be:(1) the probability of managing significantly larger sums - this is a problem you are going to have rather quickly with any successful money manager, and it will tend to moderate performance; I believe Bill's firm in now managing 20-30 million and, of course, they will continue to add accounts; (2) the possibility of Bill's becoming too involved in the detail of his operation rather than spending all of his time simply thinking about money management. The problems of being the principal factor in a NYSE firm as well as handling many individual accounts can mean that he, like most investment advisors, will be subject to pressures to spend much of his time in activities that do nothing to lead to superior investment performance. In this connection, I have asked Bill to make his services available to all BPL partners - large or small and he will, but I also told him he is completely a free agent if he finds particular clients diverting him from his main job; (3) the high probability that even excellent investment management during the next decade will only produce limited advantages over passive management. I will comment on this below.
比尔大约管理平均500到1000万美金实现这个结果。我认为他将来可能会有三个主要的负面因素是：（1）管理明显更多资金的可能性——这个问题你和任何成功的资金管理人时都会很快遇到，并且他将倾向于降缓业绩；我认为比尔的公司现在管理2000-3000万美金，当然，他们将会继续增加账户；（2）比尔变的过于陷入业务运作细节而非花费他全部时间单单思考资金管理的可能性。这个问题是纽交所备案公司同样管理很多独立账户，像大多数投资顾问一样，会遇到的首要问题，而受制于花费多数时间在不会导致卓越的投资业绩的活动上。在这点上，我已经要求比尔让他的服务对所有巴菲特合伙基金合伙人都是可获得的——规模大的或者小的，并且他将，我也告诉他，当他发现特定的客户是他从核心工作中偏离时，他可以自行决定去留；（3）很大可能在接下来十年即使卓越的投资管理也仅仅产生相比被动管理有限的领先。下面我会谈谈这个。
The final point regarding the negatives listed above is that they are not the sort of drawbacks leading to horrible performance, but more likely the sort of things that lead to average performance. I think this is the main risk you run with Bill - and average performance is just not that terrible a risk.
考虑到上面列举的负面点，最后一点不是这类会导致糟糕业绩的拖累，而更像是那种导致平均业绩的因素。我认为这是和Bill一起运作的主要风险——一个平均水平的业绩而不是一个糟糕的业绩风险。
11.equities：股票；普通股
12.volatile：不稳定的；易变的
13.mild：温和的；轻微的
14.overlap：重叠；交叠
15.divert：转移；使转向；使分心
16.passive：被动的；消极的
17.drawback：缺点；不利条件
