1 简介
以忻州市1994~2004年用电量数据为例介绍了灰色预测技术在电力系统中的应用,并与忻州市1994年至2004年工农业生产总值(不变价)和同期用电量数据建立的一元线性回归模型预测结果进行了对比分析,进一步说明了灰色模型预测具有较高的置信度和应用价值。
2 部分代码
function varargout = gmgui(varargin)
% GMGUI MATLAB code for gmgui.fig
% GMGUI, by itself, creates a new GMGUI or raises the existing
% singleton*.
%
% H = GMGUI returns the handle to a new GMGUI or the handle to
% the existing singleton*.
%
% GMGUI('CALLBACK',hObject,eventData,handles,...) calls the local
% function named CALLBACK in GMGUI.M with the given input arguments.
%
% GMGUI('Property','Value',...) creates a new GMGUI or raises the
% existing singleton*. Starting from the left, property value pairs are
% applied to the GUI before gmgui_OpeningFcn gets called. An
% unrecognized property name or invalid value makes property application
% stop. All inputs are passed to gmgui_OpeningFcn via varargin.
%
% *See GUI Options on GUIDE's Tools menu. Choose "GUI allows only one
% instance to run (singleton)".
%
% See also: GUIDE, GUIDATA, GUIHANDLES
% Edit the above text to modify the response to help gmgui
% Last Modified by GUIDE v2.5 10-May-2016 08:02:00
% Begin initialization code - DO NOT EDIT
gui_Singleton = 1;
gui_State = struct('gui_Name', mfilename, ...
'gui_Singleton', gui_Singleton, ...
'gui_OpeningFcn', @gmgui_OpeningFcn, ...
'gui_OutputFcn', @gmgui_OutputFcn, ...
'gui_LayoutFcn', [] , ...
'gui_Callback', []);
if nargin && ischar(varargin{1})
gui_State.gui_Callback = str2func(varargin{1});
end
if nargout
[varargout{1:nargout}] = gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});
else
gui_mainfcn(gui_State, varargin{:});
end
% End initialization code - DO NOT EDIT
% --- Executes just before gmgui is made visible.
function gmgui_OpeningFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles, varargin)
% This function has no output args, see OutputFcn.
% hObject handle to figure
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% varargin command line arguments to gmgui (see VARARGIN)
% Choose default command line output for gmgui
handles.output = hObject;
% Update handles structure
guidata(hObject, handles);
% UIWAIT makes gmgui wait for user response (see UIRESUME)
% uiwait(handles.figure1);
% --- Outputs from this function are returned to the command line.
function varargout = gmgui_OutputFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% varargout cell array for returning output args (see VARARGOUT);
% hObject handle to figure
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Get default command line output from handles structure
varargout{1} = handles.output;
function edit1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit1 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit1 as a double
global V;
V(1)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit1_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit2 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit2 as a double
global V;
V(2)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit2_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit3_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit3 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit3 as a double
global V;
V(3)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit3_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit3 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit4_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit4 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit4 as a double
global V;
V(4)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit4_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit4 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit5_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit5 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit5 as a double
global V;
V(5)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit5_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit5 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit6_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit6 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit6 as a double
global V;
V(6)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit6_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit6 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit7_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit7 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit7 as a double
global V;
V(7)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit7_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit7 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit8_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit8 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit8 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit8 as a double
global V;
V(8)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit8_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit8 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit9_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit9 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit9 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit9 as a double
global V;
V(9)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit9_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit9 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit10_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit10 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit10 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit10 as a double
global V;
V(10)=str2double(get(hObject,'String'));
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit10_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit10 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
function edit11_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit11 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit11 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit11 as a double
global Vnew;
Vnew=str2double(get(hObject,'String'))
guidata(hObject, handles);
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit11_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit11 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
% --- Executes on button press in pushbutton1.
function pushbutton1_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to pushbutton1 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
clear
%首先完成前十个基础数据的预测
global V;
syms a b;
A=[a b]';
B=cumsum(V); % 原始数据累加
n=length(V);
for i=1:(n-1)
C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1))/2; % 生成累加矩阵
end
% 计算待定参数的值
for i=1:(n-1)
Y(i)=V(i+1);
end
Y=Y';
E=[-C;ones(1,n-1)];
A=inv(E*E')*E*Y;
A=A';
a=A(1);b=A(2);
% 预测后续数据
F=[];F(1)=V(1);
for i=2:(n+1)
F(i)=(V(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1))+b/a ;
end
G=[];G(1)=V(1);
for i=2:(n+1)
G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1); %得到预测出来的数据
end
t1=1:10;
t2=1:11;
G(11) %输出预测值
plot(t1,V,'o',t2,G) %原始数据与预测数据的比较
grid
% set(handles.edit16,'string',num2str(G(11)));
% --- Executes on button press in pushbutton2.
function pushbutton2_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to pushbutton2 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
count=0;
global Vnew V;
count=count+1;
for i=1 :9
V(i)=V(i+1);
end
% V(10)=Vnew;
B=cumsum(V); % 原始数据累加
n=length(V);
for i=1:(n-1)
C(i)=(B(i)+B(i+1))/2; % 生成累加矩阵
end
% 计算待定参数的值
Y=V;Y(1)=[];
Y=Y';
E=[-C;ones(1,n-1)];
A=inv(E*E')*E*Y;
A=A';
a=A(1);b=A(2);
% 预测后续数据
F=[];F(1)=V(1);
for i=2:(n+1)
F(i)=(V(1)-b/a)/exp(a*(i-1))+b/a ;
end
G=[];G(1)=V(1);
for i=2:(n+1)
G(i)=F(i)-F(i-1); %得到预测出来的数据
end
t1=1+count:10+count;
t2=1+count:11+count;
% G(11) %输出预测值
plot(t1,V,'o',t2,G) %原始数据与预测数据的比较
grid
set(handles.edit16,'string',num2str(G(11)));
function edit16_Callback(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit16 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles structure with handles and user data (see GUIDATA)
% Hints: get(hObject,'String') returns contents of edit16 as text
% str2double(get(hObject,'String')) returns contents of edit16 as a double
% set(handles.edit10,'string',num2str(A(10)));
% set(handles.edit16,'string',G(11));
% --- Executes during object creation, after setting all properties.
function edit16_CreateFcn(hObject, eventdata, handles)
% hObject handle to edit16 (see GCBO)
% eventdata reserved - to be defined in a future version of MATLAB
% handles empty - handles not created until after all CreateFcns called
% Hint: edit controls usually have a white background on Windows.
% See ISPC and COMPUTER.
if ispc && isequal(get(hObject,'BackgroundColor'), get(0,'defaultUicontrolBackgroundColor'))
set(hObject,'BackgroundColor','white');
end
3 仿真结果
4 参考文献
[1]王永华. 一例基于灰色模型的电力负荷预测方法的应用[J]. 电力学报, 2005, 20(3):3.
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