——选自Climateer Investing 网站（吉玛译）
“Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” — Howard Marks
“当你认为你没能得到你想要的东西时，其实你得到了经验” -霍华德标志
Successful decision making requires thoughtful attention to many separate aspects.成功的决策需要考虑到许多不同的方面。
Decision making is as much art as science. The goal, if we have one, is not to make perfect decisions but rather to make better than average decisions and get better over time. Doing this requires better insight or making fewer errors. One of the ways to gain insight and make fewer mistakes is the use of second-order thinking.
决策和科学一样都是艺术。如果我们有一个目标，那我们的目标不是做出完美的决定，而是要比一般的决定做得更好，并随着时间的推移变得更好。这样做需要较好的洞察力或减少错误。获得洞察力和减少错误的方法之一就是使用二级思维。
In most of life, you can get a step ahead of others by going to the gym or the library, or even a better school. In thinking, however, a lot of what you'd think gets you ahead is only window dressing.
在生活的大部分时间里，你可以去健身房或图书馆，甚至是一所更好的学校，从而领先他人一步。然而，在思考时，你所思考的会让你变得更有前途很多东西也只是幻想而已。
Would be thinkers and deciders can attend the best schools, take the best courses and, if they are lucky, attach themselves to the best mentors. Yet only a few of them will achieve the skills and superior insight necessary to be an above average thinker.
思想者和决策者可以就读最好的学校，学习最好的课程，如果幸运的话，可以和最好的导师联系。然而，只有少数人能达到超常的能力和卓越的洞察力。
But how do we become a better thinker in a world where everyone else is also smart and well-informed? How do we improve in a world that is increasingly becoming computerized?
但是，在这个人人都聪明、见多识广的世界里，我们如何才能成为一个更好的思想家呢?在这个日益变得计算机化的世界里，我们该如何进步?
You must find an edge. You must think differently.
你必须找到一优势。你必须用不同的方式思考。
Second-Order Thinking 二阶思维
In his exceptional book, The Most Important Thing, Howard Marks hits on the concept of second-order thinking, which he calls second-level thinking.
霍华德在他杰出著作《最重要的事》中，对二级思维的概念进行了研究，他称之为“二级思考”。
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
第一级思考过于简单和肤浅，几乎每个人都能做到(任何涉及到优势的尝试都是一个不好的兆头)。所有的第一级的思考者需要的是对未来的看法，如“公司的前景好，意味着股票会上涨。”第二级的思考是深刻的、复杂的、错综复杂的。
Second-order thinkers take into account a lot of what we put into our decision journals. Things like, What is the range of possible outcomes? What’s the probability I’m right? What’s the follow-on? How could I be wrong?
二级思考者考虑了很多我们在决策期刊上发表的内容。比如，可能结果的范围是什么?我对的概率是多少?后续是什么?我怎么会犯这种错呢?
The real difference for me is that first-order thinkers are the people that look for things that are simple, easy, and defendable. Second-order thinkers push harder and don't accept the first conclusion.
对我来说，真正的区别是，一阶思考者是那些寻找简单、容易和可防御的事物的人。二阶思想家则更努力，不接受第一个结论。
“It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.”— Charlie Munger
“这并不容易。愚蠢的人才会觉得觉得容易。”-芒格
Marks writes:
马克思写道:
First-level thinkers think the same way other first-level thinkers do about the same things, and they generally reach the same conclusions. By definition, this can’t be the route to superior results.
第一层次的思想家和其他第一层次的思想家对于他们所做的同样的事情，通常得出同样的结论。从定义上看，这并不是取得优异成绩的途径。
This is where things get interesting. Extraordinary performance comes from being different. It must be that way. Of course, below average performance comes from being different too — on the downside.
这就是事情变得有趣的地方。非凡的表现来自于与众不同。一定是这样。当然，低于平均水平的表现也来自于与众不同——也就是缺点。
The Necessity of Smart Divergence智慧分化的必要性
“The problem is that extraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensual forecasts, but nonconsensual forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly and hard to act on,” writes Marks.
“问题在于，卓越的表现仅自于正确的非共识预测，而非共识预测很难实现，它是很难做出正确且难以付诸行动的预测。”马克思写道。
You can’t do the same things that other people are doing and expect to outperform. When you do what everyone else does you're going to get the same results everyone else gets.
你不能做别人正在做的事情，还期望表现得与众不同。因为当你做别人做的事的时候，你会得到和其他人一样的结果。
It's not enough to be different — you also need to be correct. The goal is not blind divergence but rather a way of thinking that sets you apart from others. A way of thinking that gives you an advantage.
与众不同是不够的，需要正确的思考。目标不是盲目的分歧，而是一种让你与众不同的思维方式。一种让你有优势的思维方式。
We can look at this as a simple two-by-two matrix (via The Most Important Thing).我们可以把它看成一个简单的2乘2矩阵 (通过《最重要的事》)。
I’m generalizing a bit here, but if your thoughts and behavior are conventional, you’re likely to get conventional results. Steve Jobs was right.
在这里概括下，但是如果你的想法和行为是传统的，你很可能会得到传统的结果。史蒂夫·乔布斯是对的。
This is where loss aversion comes in. Most people are simply unwilling to be wrong because that means they might look like a fool. Yet this is a grave mistake.
这就是损失规避的原因。大多数人只是不愿意犯错，因为这意味着他们可能看起来像个傻瓜。然而，这是一个严重的错误。
The ability to risk looking like an idiot is necessary for being different. You never look like a fool if you look like everyone else.
要想与众不同，就必须有像白痴一样的冒险精神。如果你看起来像其他人，你就永远不会像个傻瓜。
“Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”— John Meynard Keynes
“世俗的智慧告诉我们，传统上的失败比传统的成功要好。”--约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯
Conventional thinking and behavior are safe. But they almost guarantee mediocrity. To get an edge, you need to know when your performance is likely to be improved by being unconventional.
传统的思维和行为是安全的。但他们注定平庸。要想获得优势，你需要知道，你的表现可能会因为非传统而有所改善。
Second-order thinking takes a lot of work. It's not easy. However, this is a smart way to separate yourself from the masses.
二级思维需要下很多功夫。这并不容易。然而，这是一种让你与众不同的聪明的巧妙方式。
Link: Second-Order Thinking: What Smart People Use to Outperform
