课程：Thinking Critically
本课程从三个方面——1. 提出假设 2.分析论据 3.得出结论——分别讨论如何培养批判性思维及其注意事项。
一、Coming to Terms with Assumptions
1. The Role of Assumptions in Critical Thinking
我们每天说的话都存在不少假设，只不过有的是隐藏的，不注意的话很容易被忽略。比如这个推理结构：很多网友留言夸鹏叔的文章写得好，所以鹏叔的公众号值得关注。这里面其实存在着一个隐含假设：网友评价是一个公众号是否值得关注的重要指标。
再举一个例子：高中肄业的A比博士B更成功，是因为A现在拥有资产1亿，而B只有10万。这里隐含的假设是：金钱是衡量人生成功的唯一标准。
假设分为两种：描述性假设和价值观假设，上述两个例子就是代表。描述性假设是关于世界是什么的想法，而价值观因人而异，比如公正、平等、诚信是好的。
批判性思维第一步，也是重要的一步就是要识别假设。
2. Distinguishing Facts from Opinions
区别事实与观点。假设可以从另外一个角度分为三种：
Assumptions based on facts：辨别最为简单，正确与否一查便知
Assumptions based on opinions：观点比较复杂，体现一个人的背景、经历、学识、价值观等
Projection：预测未来
3. Checking Assumptions with Others
识别出假设之后，需要判断这个假设是否合理、正确，方法就是巧妙提问：
这个假设合理吗？是对的吗？与结论相关吗？为什么你这么认为？
A key factor in thinking critically and challenging your assumptions is seeking out other people's perspectives—inside and outside your typical circle of contacts.还有一个重要的验证假设方法就是询问更多人对这个假设的见解。
二、Getting Your Arms around Arguments
1. Spotting an Argument
首先需要区分论证/论据（Argument）与观点（Opinion）的区别。论证有理有据，而观点只是单纯的想法。比如：“你应该学习克服拖延症”。这只是一个观点。但如果改成“你应该学习克服拖延症，因为拖延症导致无法按期完成工作。”这则是一个论证。
2. Explore an Argument: Accuracy and Logic
识别出论证后，那么就要分析这个论证是否准确，是否合乎逻辑，是否带有偏见，是否令人相信。在我们说服他人时，也需要自问下面的问题。
are the argument and its supporting data clear?
is the supporting data actually relevant?
Is there sufficient data to support the conclusion?
Does the argument's reasoning lead logically to its conclusion?
is the argument based on reason or does it merely appeal to biases and emotions?
在逻辑这个部分，存在着很多逻辑谬误，也是我们日常生活常见的但却不在意的。之前写过两篇文章具体阐述过（详情请戳你会说理吗——一本书带你学逻辑|读《明亮的对话》和10分钟如何形成批判性思维|读《学会提问》），这里就不赘述了。
3. Explore an Argument: Bias and Persuasion
偏见是每个人在成长路上形成的一种固定的思维模式，这是我们大脑为了简化理解这个世界所引起的。要承认，我们每个人都有偏见。问题是你是否认识到自己的这种偏见，从而尽量做到客观——也就是对事不对人。
说服他人的四个技巧：
asserting rightness：勒庞在 《乌合之众》中把“断言、重复、传染”这三种手段确认为是给群众洗脑，并彻底控制群众的宣传良方。直接抛出不容置疑的观点，多次重复并形成流行传染给别人。
asserting priorities：This happens when you claim that what you want is most important. For example, the statement "That may be true but what matters here is profit" asserts priority.
reframing criteria：This happens when someone plays down factors that don't suit their argument and amplify those that don't.
sowing doubt：This is all about negativity and knocking an argument without saying anything substantial about it. A typical example is an empty statement, "I don't know how you could possibly think that."
4. Making a Good Argument
综合以上三点，一个好论证的要素就有了。不假设，有理有据，准确、符合逻辑，不带偏见和情感，还有良好的沟通技巧。说起来容易，做起来难，就让我们从日常着手，勤加练习。
三、Drawing Conclusions with Confidence
1. Elements of a Logical Conclusion
The process of drawing conclusions to be a circular process, and in the middle is like your pool of things that you've collected - data, information, assumptions that you've checked, arguments that make sense.
There are essentially three parts to the process of drawing a good conclusion.
The first is identifying relevant data and evidence.
The second is synthesizing and weighing the data and evidence in a manner that points to a conclusion.
The third is validating with others that your conclusion is a sound one.
2. Concluding with Questions
提问是批判性思维的核心。无论是前面提到的假设和论证，还是这里说到的结论，都不能少了问问题。一般常见的问题如下：
The first is the source. Where did the data come from? Is the source reliable?
Next is interpretation. What does the data say? Is it relevant? Unbiased?
The third is alternatives. How else could we interpret the data? What other conclusions could we draw?
And finally, implications. What are the implications, the risks, and benefits, of taking a particular course?
3. Drawing Conclusions Using Visual Tools
协助我们得出结论的工具必不可少。有矩阵图、鱼骨图、流程图及脑图等方法，这些之前文章都有所涉及，请参阅：
如何解决问题1：构建问题Solving Problems: Framing the Problem
如何解决问题2：寻求解决方案Solving Problems: Generating and Evaluating Alternatives
用这些工具不光可以帮忙我们自己整理思路，还可以更清晰的说服别人。
4. Acting on Your Thinking
批判性思维说了那么多，不能光说不练，最重要的还是做。如果只是单纯的在头脑中做再严谨的推演，那还不如直接开始闷头干边做边思考。实践出真知是应该信奉的主义。
The best way to ensure that conclusions are implemented in a timely and efficient manner is to create an action plan. The plan should answer five questions.
What is the outcome?
Who is accountable?
By when are they going to have completed their tasks?
How are they going to complete their tasks?
And why are we taking this action?
综上从三个方面基本上告诉你批判性思维的一些核心要素和注意事项。更重要的是，要把这些理论应用在我们的日常实际生活中。
