Streamlined

精简

A wave of consolidation pits Disney, at&t and Comcast against Netflix, Amazon and Apple. Billions are being torched. Someone will get hurt

媒体兼并成为潮流，迪士尼，美国电话电报，康卡斯特对垒网飞，亚马逊和苹果。烧钱将至百亿级别。总有人会倒下

Who might buy Netflix? Speculation on the matter has risen in line with the streaming giant’s own ascent in the past decade. Apple, with its cash hoard, was a frequently rumoured suitor. Or perhaps Amazon, or big distributors like at&t or Comcast. At one point, industry sources say, Bob Iger of Disney directly asked Reed Hastings, the boss of Netflix, if he would welcome an offer (Mr Hastings said no).

谁会买下网飞呢？这家流媒体巨头在过去十年崛起速度惊人，人们对这一问题的猜想也不断发酵。有传言，拥有充足现金储备的苹果公司可能是一位潜在的买家，当然也可能是亚马逊，或大型的分销商美国电话电报以及康卡斯特。根据行业消息，迪士尼的Bob Iger一度直接质问了网飞老板Reed Hastings的出售意见。

Instead all six companies embarked on a series of massive investments that will reshape the landscape of media: who makes entertainment and how people consume it. Since June at&t, Comcast and Disney have spent $215bn in total on acquisitions of, respectively, Time Warner ($104bn), Sky, a European broadcaster ($40bn), and much of 21st Century Fox ($71bn). Each is preparing new streaming services that will launch by early 2020.

这六家主要媒体公司展开了一系列巨额投资，这必将重塑媒介格局：谁将决定消费者的娱乐内容？以及以怎样的方式消费？去年六月以来，美国电信电报，康卡斯特和迪士尼在并购项目上共花费了2150亿美元，其中并购时代华纳花费1040亿美元，欧洲天空广播400亿美元，21世纪福克斯710亿美元。上述的每一家公司都打算在2020年以前推出全新的流媒体业务。

Apple, meanwhile, has poured perhaps $2bn into original shows with some of Hollywood’s most famous directors and stars. On March 25th the company unveiled its new streaming-video service, Apple tv+, that will be available in more than 100 countries later this year. Amazon is thought to be spending more than $5bn a year on content. And Netflix is expected to burn about $15bn this year on original and licensed content in a bid to add to its 139m global subscribers before most of its would-be rivals get fully up and running.

与此同时，苹果公司在传统综艺节目的制作上已投入约20亿美元，这些节目的制作班底很多是来自好莱坞的著名导演和影星。3月25日，苹果公司推出了全新的流媒体视频业务Apple TV+，100多个国家和地区将在今年晚些时候享受到这一服务。在内容制作方面，亚马逊今年打算投入50亿美元，根据预测，网飞将投入150亿美元用于其原创版权内容，他们的主要目的是在其潜在竞争对手“羽翼未丰”之前，稳定好全球范围内1390万订阅者，不得不说网飞拥有一个庞大的观众基础。

The firms are chasing the same prize: recurring revenue from video subscriptions by tens of millions of Americans and, potentially, hundreds of millions of international viewers. It is unclear how many of them can thrive at the same time. More than two, analysts reckon, but not all six. There are only so many $10 monthly subscriptions people will pay for. They may opt once again for those bundled with something else, like a mobile service—a business model of which consumers had grown weary in America, where a single distributor sells lots of channels at one price. What forms these reimagined bundles take, and who gets to sell them, will depend on who wins the streaming battles.

这些公司追求的目标是相同的：从数千万美国人甚至是数以亿计的全球观众那里攫取高额利润。目前来看，我们无法确定谁能够最终胜出，根据分析师的预测，这个数字可能会超过两家，但绝不会是现在的六家。如今每月10美元的收视费多如牛毛，观众们也只愿意付这么多，他们也许会选择一些附加服务，比如移动设备服务，但很多美国消费者都此感到厌恶，因为很多不同的频道具有相同的销售价格，并且出自同一家分销商。这些重构的销售模式将会以什么样的形式存在？谁有资格去出售它们？都将取决于谁能够赢得这场流媒服务之战。

In this fight, the contenders have adopted different strategies to win over subscribers. at&t will bundle entertainment with its mobile service, which could help the company overtake Verizon as the largest wireless carrier in America. Comcast will offer an ad-supported streaming service from nbc Universal, which it owns, to its 52m broadband and pay-tv customers (including Sky’s) in America, Britain and elsewhere in Europe (it will also sell subscriptions, but its ambitions seem more modest than the others’). Disney will use its enviable collection of film franchises, including Star Wars and Marvel superheroes, to draw families to Disney+, then steer them to its consumer products and theme parks.

在这场战斗中，竞争者们采取了不同的策略来赢得受众。通过捆绑销售娱乐内容和附加服务，美国电信电报这将取代Verizon成为美国最大的无线运营商。康卡斯特将向NBCUniversal提供支持广告呈现的流媒体服务，该公司在英美和欧洲等地区拥有5200万宽带用户和付费电视用户（天空电视也将开展订阅服务，但其野心没有那么大）。迪士尼将使用其令人羡慕的电影特许经营集合，包括星球大战和漫威超级英雄，将家庭观众吸引到迪士尼+收视服务中，引导他们消费附加产品和主题公园服务。

For the tech giants, video is a way to lure customers into their online emporiums. Amazon, with 100m Prime households, is ahead of Apple for now. But Apple tv can push its glitzy new shows to the world’s 1.4bn iDevices. Apple and Amazon have deeper pockets than at&t, Comcast or Disney, so can afford to pour billions annually into streaming-video for years to come. Their platforms are perfect for selling online services including video.

对科技巨头来说，视频是吸引客户进入其在线内容合集的一大手段。亚马逊拥有1亿左右的特权优惠（prime）客户，目前在用户基数上是超过苹果的。但苹果电视也可以把他们的新节目推送给世界上14亿苹果移动设备用户。苹果和亚马逊的财力也比美国电信电报，康卡斯特或迪士尼更加雄厚，因此前者能够负担每年数百亿美元的流媒体业务费用。同时，这两家公司目前所拥有的的网络平台在线上服务方面可以说是无可挑剔的。

Then there is Netflix. Its head start puts it in a strong position. Its algorithms work out what viewers want and it has the infrastructure to deliver it to ever more people. A recession or rising interest rates could hurt its ability to borrow—Netflix has more than $10bn in debt and burns through $3bn of cash a year. But its lead is such that it could curtail spending on content and still stay ahead of competitors.

接下来是网飞。强势崛起让这家公司在这个产业中拥有了稳固的地位，它的算法可以了解到观众想看什么，依靠强大的基础线路设施，网飞可以将影视内容传递给更多的观众。经济不景气和利率上升都可能影响这家公司的借贷能力，网飞目前的债务规模为100亿美元，每年的现金消耗可以到达30亿美元左右。尽管网飞可以在内容生产上减少支出，但它还是会在竞争中保持领先地位。

at&t and Disney face a more complicated challenge. To prosper in streaming, they must undermine lucrative existing businesses. In at&t’s business unit that houses Directv, a satellite provider acquired in 2015 at a cost of $63bn, operating income has fallen by 20% since 2016—in part owing to aggressive marketing of Directv Now, a cheaper, loss-making streaming bundle of pay-tv networks. The new streaming service from at&t (marketed under the WarnerMedia brand) will exacerbate the decline. Disney, for its part, will forgo profits of about $1bn this year—and $2bn annually from 2020—as it stops licensing films to Netflix and invests in original shows for its streaming platform, Disney+. New investments in Hulu, a general-interest streaming service with 25m subscribers that Disney controls, will also be costly.

美国电信电报和迪士尼面临的挑战更加复杂。为了抢占流媒体业务份额，他们必须消减利润可观的现有业务。美国电信电报的企事业部于2015年花费630亿美元成功并购DirecTV，它是一家卫星电视台，然而美国电信电报自2016年以来在营收方面降低了20%。部分原因是DirecTV Now的过分营销，但这一子品牌实际上是该公司付费收看网络中一个廉价而又低回报的流媒体捆绑服务。美国电信电报在华纳影视招牌下推出的全新流媒体业务只会越来越糟糕。迪士尼方面将放弃今年约10亿美元规模的利润，并且，迪士尼方面将从2020起停止向网飞发放电影许可证, 将资金转向其流媒体平台迪士尼+ 的原创节目。Hulu 是迪士尼旗下的一个具有2500万用户的个性化流媒体频道, 新投资的成本也将很高。

Profitless motives

毫无利润的动因

Disney and at&t are willing to sacrifice near-term profits for two reasons: the vulnerability of their underlying businesses, and hoped-for returns from streaming. With the rise of Netflix, YouTube and other internet distractions, Americans are watching less pay-tv (see chart) and dropping pricey packages which at&t sells, and which carry Disney’s tv networks. And they go to the cinema less often. That is why Rupert Murdoch wanted to sell much of his Fox empire, and Jeff Bewkes was keen to offload Time Warner. Networks bereft of “must-have” content will face demands from distributors to lower prices. Disney and at&t viewed Fox and Time Warner studios and entertainment networks, with their libraries of hits, as valuable assets.

迪士尼和美国电信电报愿意牺牲短期利润收益,主要原因是这两家公司的基础业务较为薄弱, 同时，它们从流媒体业务中获得的回报期望较低。随着网飞、油管和其他互联网公司加入竞争, 美国人收看的付费电视和价格高昂的收视套餐将越来越多, 这些套餐通过美国电信电报销售, 并在迪士尼的电视台网络上播出。观众们去电影院看电影的次数也少了，这就是解释了为什么鲁珀特·默多克想出售他的福克斯帝国，杰夫·比克斯也想将时代华纳这个包袱赶快卸掉。缺乏"必需品" 内容的网络视频将面临经销商对低的要求。迪士尼和美国电信电报认为福克斯以及时代华纳的影视工作室和娱乐电视台网络，及其名下的热门影片库是十分宝贵的资产。

For Disney, which oozed popular content even before the Fox deal, the economics of streaming stack up. espn, Disney’s sports network, generates more than $2bn annually, according to Kagan, a research group. But its reach is declining. In 2018 the company launched espn+, a sports- streaming service. It has picked up 2m sub- scribers in less than a year (though it is expected to lose money for years).

对于甚至在福克斯交易之前就渗出热门内容的迪士尼来说, 流媒体的经济学堆积如山。研究机构Kagan 的数据显示, 迪士尼的体育网络espn 每年的收入超过20亿美元。但其触角正在下降。2018年, 该公司推出了体育流媒体服务espn。在不到一年的时间里, 它已经获得了200万用户(尽管预计未来会亏损)。

The real opportunity should be in Disney+. Disney’s dominance of the box office will count for less as fewer people frequent cinemas. Matthew Ball, a media analyst, ar- gues that even before the acquisition of Fox’s big franchises, such as “Avatar”, Disney’s spectaculars were beginning to crowd each other out. Streaming provides a neat solution. Disney will release films directly online, as with the upcoming live- action version of “Lady and the Tramp”, in addition to tv series from Lucasfilm, Marvel Studios and Pixar Animation. Once licences expire, it will control access to its complete library of hits. Bullish analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, believe Disney+ can break even by 2022 and eventually attract 45m subscribers in America and 115m abroad. At $8-10 per month that would equate to $15bn-19bn in recurring sales; Disney’s revenues last fiscal year totalled $59bn. Disney would also have something new and valuable: direct relationships with its biggest fans.

真正的机会应该在迪士尼+这一服务中。迪士尼在票房上的主导地位将会下降, 因为频繁去电影院看电影的人会越来越少。媒体分析师马修·鲍尔(Matthewball) 甚至在收购福克斯(fox) 的大型专营权(如"阿凡达") 之前, 迪斯尼粉丝就开始互相挤掉。流媒体提供了一个整洁的解决方案。迪士尼将直接在网上发布电影, 就像即将推出的《女士与流浪汉》的生活动作版一样, 除了卢卡斯电影、奇迹工作室和皮克斯动画的电视剧。一旦许可证过期, 它将控制对其完整的命中库的访问。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase) 的看涨分析师认为, 迪士尼+ (Mpmorgan chase) 到2022年可以实现收支平衡, 最终在美国吸引了4500万用户, 在海外吸引了1.5亿用户。每月8-10 美元, 相当于150亿至190亿美元的经常性销售额;迪士尼上一财年的总收入为590亿美元. 迪士尼也将有一些新的和有价值的东西: 与最大的粉丝建立直接关系。

at&t and Comcast look more precarious. WarnerMedia (as Time Warner has been renamed) owns some famous superheroes, like Batman and Wonder Woman, but they are not quite so formidable as Disney’s. at&t’s early handling of WarnerMe- dia, where several highly respected executives have resigned, most notably at hbo, its most important asset, has raised con- cerns about its ability to manage a giant media conglomerate. Comcast, mean- while, lacks enough popular shows to grab subscribers’ attention.

在美国电信电报和康卡斯特看起来更不稳定。华纳传媒(随着时代华纳的更名) 拥有一些著名的超级英雄, 比如蝙蝠侠和神奇女侠, 但他们并不像迪斯尼那样可怕。在对华纳传媒的早期处理中, 几位备受尊敬的高管辞职, 最引人注目的是在其最重要的资产HBO, 这让人对其管理一家大型媒体集团的能力产生了怀疑。喜剧演员, 虽然, 缺乏足够的流行节目, 以吸引受众的注意力。

It is not clear that owners of infrastructure need to enter the battle to produce content. Craig Moffett of Moffett Nathan- son, a research firm, argues that the streaming boom should benefit owners of distribution pipes. They can offset falling revenue from pay-tv with broadband, which offers higher margins with less capital spending. The cost of programming has ballooned—well above $10m an hour for “Game of Thrones”—as viewers increasingly expect blockbuster quality from their shows. One day, a Hollywood executive predicts, the spending binge will come to a halt. The streaming market, too, will consolidate. It will be “the biggest hangover that Hollywood has ever seen”.

目前尚不清楚基础设施所有者是否会加入这场内容生产战。研究公司Moffett Nathan的克雷格·莫非特(craig Moffett) 认为, 流媒体的繁荣发展应该会让宽带分发所有者受益，它们可以用宽带收入抵消付费电视收入的下降, 宽带以更少的资本支出提供更高的利润率。由于观众越来越期待他们大片节目的质量, 节目的成本已经膨胀：《权利的游戏》的每小时制作成本远超1000万美元。一位好莱坞高管预测, 有一天,消费狂潮将会停止。流媒体市场也将整合，这将是"好莱坞有史以来最严重的后遗症"。