2018-08-05 Why iPhone and Android phone prices will get even higher

Paying a thousand bucks for a phone is no longer laughable. In fact, it's probably the new normal. 

花1000美金买一部手机不再受到嘲笑了。实际上,这可能成为了一种新常态。

When Apple broke the $1,000 barrier for itsiPhone Xlast September, critics scoffed at its exorbitant price. They doubted people would reach so deeply into their wallets for a phone that outpriced two other perfectly good iPhones, theiPhone 8andiPhone 8 Plus. The critics were wrong. Apple CEO Tim Cook said in July that the iPhone X hadoutsold every other Apple devicein each week since it went on sale Nov. 3, 2017.

当去年九月份苹果公司为iPhoneX的定价打破了1000美金壁垒时,批评家嘲笑价格过高了。他们怀疑人们会掏出可以比买两部也相当完美的iPhone(iPhone 8,和iPhone 8Plus)的钱来买单单一部手机。这种批评错了。苹果的CEO提姆·库克在七月份提到,iPhoneX自从2017年11月3日开始销售以来,它每一周的销量都超过任何一种其他的苹果设备。

With strong iPhone X sales, Apple proved that mainstream buyers are willing to pay almost as much, if not more, for their cell phones as they would for a powerful laptop. And with rumors of an even pricier 2018iPhone X Plus-style phonecoming down the pike this September, Apple's moves to usher in the era of the $1,000 phone may just be getting underway.

由强劲的iPhoneX销售,苹果证实了主流的买家愿意花与一台强劲的笔记本一样(如果不是更多)的钱来买一部手机。有传言说一台更贵的2018款iPhoneX Plus 将会在今年九月面世,苹果很可能正在紧锣密鼓地迈进千元手机时代。

Apple isn't alone in boosting mobile phone prices ever higher. Creeping prices on high-end handsets fromSamsung,Huawei and even "value" darling OnePlus signal that price hikes are here to stay.

在推高手机价格方面苹果并非孤军奋战。来自三星、华为甚至一加地高端手机爬升的价格预示着价格攀升将会成为生活的一部分并持续下去。



In just two years, the cost of Samsung's Galaxy phone for US buyers has spiked 15.1 percent from theGalaxy S7in 2016 to this year'sGalaxy S9, while the Huawei P series has climbed 33 percent since 2016 -- and that doesn't even account for the existence of a "Pro" model.

在两年的事件里,三星的Galaxy手机在北美的价格上涨了15.1%,从2016年的S7到今年的S9,而华为的P系列从2016年起则提高了33%,这还没有把Pro型号计算在内。

But the largest leap of all belongs to the OnePlus phones, whose price tag since 2016 has soared 32.6 percent in the US and 42.6 percent in the UK.  

而提价幅度最大的要属一加手机,在美国和英国的价格涨幅分别是32.6%和42.6%。


The trend of increasingly costly handsets in the top tier underscores the cell phone's importance as an everything-device for communication, work, photography and entertainment. And as processing power, camera technology, battery life and internet data speeds improve generation after generation, the value people attach to a phone is sure to swell.  

这种高端手机价格持续上涨的趋势说明了手机作为全能设备的重要性:通信,工作,拍照和娱乐。而随着一代一代的手机的计算能力、拍照科技、电池导航能力和互联网数据速度不断提升,人们自然赋予手机的价值自然要水涨船高。



"Consumers are prepared to pay a premium for a mobile phone because it is arguably the most important product in their lives," said Ben Wood, the chief research analyst at CCS Insight.

“因为手机或许是人们生活中最重要的产品,所以消费者愿意为手机付出更多的价钱”,本·伍德,CCS Insight的首席研究分析师如此说到。


Rising prices aren't unusual on their own. Faster, better components like processors and cameras cost more to make. The financial load of researching and developing new materials also gets folded into the final product. And inflation affects the cost of goods outside of tech, too.  

对于手机自身来说,涨价也不奇怪。更快更好的元件,包括处理器和镜头需要更高的成本来制造。而研究和开发新材料的财务成本也会折算到最终产品里。科技之外通货膨胀也在影响商品的价格。

But R&D spending and inflation don't tell the entire story your phone's creeping expense. By increasing the prices of their phones with each iteration, Apple, Samsung and other leaders in the industry are creating an ultra high-end segment that can make each sale more profitable -- that's important as people start holding on to their phones longer, for three years or more.  

但是研发上的开支和通胀并不能完全说明手机不断上涨的价格。通过在每次迭代中提高手机价格,苹果、三星和业界其他领先者正在创造一个高端频段,在人们更换手机的周期越来越长(三年甚至更长)的时候,每一笔销售赚取更多利润变得很重要。

Yep, your phone costs more every year  

是的,你的手机越来越贵了。

With few exceptions, phone prices from top brands are on the rise. 

除了少数的几个例外,高端品牌的手机价格正走在上升通道。

"Although overall smartphone shipments will decline slightly in 2018, the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone will reach $345, up 10.3 percent from the $313 ASP in 2017," IDC analyst Anthony Scarsella said in IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, shared with journalists in May. Prices will jump on the high end especially, Scarsella added.

尽管整体上智能机的出货价在2018年会略有下降,然而单台智能的平均销售价(ASP)会达到345美金,相比2017年的313美金将有10.3%的上涨。在5月份,IDC的分析师安东尼·丝卡瑟拉在IDC世界季度手机轨迹大会上,告诉记者们这样的预判。丝卡瑟拉又讲到,特别是高端机的价格会上涨。

The uptick is immediately noticeable when comparing phone prices from today with the same model released just two years ago. 

当我们把今天手机的价格与两年前同样型号相比,价格报涨就立刻很引人注意了。


Apple's prices have risen at a steady rate for both its iPhone and iPhone Plus lines, making the iPhone X -- by far its most expensive phone ever -- a luxury spinoff. 

苹果的价格,包括iPhone和iPhone pluse系列,都以稳定的速度在上涨,使得iPhone X,到目前为止最贵的手机,成了一件奢侈的附属品。

Samsung's Galaxy S, S Plus and Note prices are swinging upward too, with theS9 Plus— an iPhone Plus and iPhone X rival — inching toward iPhone X prices.

三星的Galaxy S,S Plus 和Note的价格也在一路向上,而S9 Plus作为iPhone Plus iPhone X的对手机


We see the most shocking escalation from OnePlus, whose price jumps up each time a new model arrives. OnePlus is currently on track for two variations per year. For example, theOnePlus 6debuted in June and the OnePlus 6T could appear in November. Considering the brand's upward trajectory, we can expect the OnePlus 6T to include a few more features for a higher cost than the OnePlus 6.

在一加每次发布一款新的机型的时候,它的价格就会上涨,这是我们看到的最令人震惊的涨价。一加目前是沿着一年两款机型的速度发展。例如,在6月份发布一加 6,那么11月份就会出现6T。考虑到这个品牌向上的轨迹,我们可以预见到6T将会比一加6多几个功能,而价格将更高。


"As reliance on smartphones has increased drastically over a short amount of time, the increase in quality and components across the industry required to meet high performance demands has also risen," a OnePlus representative said.

由于在很短的时间内人们对于智能机的依赖大幅增加,因而就需要这个行业投入质量更高、数量更多的原件来满足更高的性能。一加的代表如此发言。

Over at LG, "Key factors include the cost of components, competitor pricing, carrier incentives, tariffs, etc.," Ken Hong, LG's senior director of global communications, said in an email. "Fact is, these input costs are rising so we're forced to follow suit," adding that introducing more variants like the LG V35 has the positive effect of lowering the price of the previous model, in this case the LG V30.

在LG,关键因素包括元器件的价格,竞争者的定价,运营商的刺激政策,关税,等等。在一封邮件中,Ken Hone,作为LG全球通信的资深主管是这样解释的。事实是,采购成本在增加,我们不得不跟随。 他接着说由于引入了更多变量,比如LG V35,在先前的型号(LG V30)上有了降低价格的正面效果。

(CNET reached out to all manufacturers mentioned in this story for comment.)

CNET指的是本文中提到的所有制造商。

Interestingly,Google has kept its prices steady with the second generationPixel 2andPixel 2 XL. However, if the Pixel 3 we expect in October finally takes on the dual rear camera, all-screen, no bezel look that defines current smartphone design, Google could justify pushing up the price to match everyone else.

有意思的是,谷歌在它的第二代手机Pixel 2和Pixel 2 XL还是保持了稳定的价格。不过,如果我们预计在十月份发布的Pixel 2最终装载了双后摄像头,全屏,无bezel外观(那会定义现在的智能手机的设计),谷歌将把它的价格推到与其他人持平的位置。

Samsung is aware of its role in ballooning handset prices. In an earnings call this week, the brand promised to keep its forthcoming Note 9 "reasonably priced" when Samsung announces the phone on Aug. 9. Last year'sNote 8sold for around $950 in the US, £869 in the UK and AU$1,499 in Australia, already pricing them at the top of the market.

三星已经意识到在推高手机价格上它所起的作用。在本周的收入会议上,这个品牌承诺将让即将到来的Note 9有合理的定价,将于8月9日发布。 去年,Note 8在美国的售价是950美金,在英国售价是869英镑,而在澳大利亚是1499澳元,已经是全球市场的最高价格了。

With new tech on deck for the Note 9's S Pen stylus and Apple teeing up itsnext crop of iPhones, most likely for September, it'd be unwise to expect phones like these to drop below their current prices.

而对于很可能在九月份发布的采用了  新技术的Note 9 S Pen Stylus 和苹果的 下一代iPhone,期待这样的手机以低于目前的价格销售,显然是不太明智的。

But making phones is more expensive now, right?

但是制造手机是更昂贵的,对吧?

Phones, like all electronics, are composed of parts sourced from various suppliers, and if the cost of those parts goes up, it's a sure bet the cost of the phones will, too.

手机,与所有电子产品一样,是由来自不同供应商的各种元器件组合在一起的。如果这些配件的成本上涨得了,那么手机的价格肯定无疑也会上涨。


Demand for more storage over the past few years has triggered price hikes, pushing up the cost of memory and prompting suppliers to invest in building more factories to meet the demand, according to Wood. 

过去几年对库存的需求已经触发了价格的波动,将内存的价格一路推高,促使供应商们投资更多的工厂以满足市场需要,据Wood说。


Adding more sophisticated cameras like the iPhone X's 3D depth sensing front-facing camera, or more lenses, like the Huawei P20 Pro's three rear shooters, costs more too. And so do materials like glass or ceramic for a phone's backing, or sturdy aerospace-grade aluminum for the frame.

添加更多复杂的镜头比如iPhone X上3D深度感应前摄像头,或者更多镜头,比如华为P20 Pro的三个后端摄像头,都会花费更多成本。而在手机后盖上使用诸如玻璃或陶瓷,或者边框上使用坚固的宇宙飞船级别的铝材料,都会提高成本。

You can bet that the first phone to debut a diamond glass screen or the new, smudge-resistant Vibrant Satin Corning Gorilla Glass won't be cheap. It's also expensive for companies like Samsung to build a whole new manufacturing process for elements like curved glass and flexible OLED displays.

你可以确定第一部使用了钻石屏幕或者新的防污玻璃的手机不会便宜。对于三星这样的公司来说,建造一套全新的制造流程以生产曲面玻璃或者可弯曲的OLED显示屏要耗费巨资。



Yet while the cost of all these components -- called the Bill of Materials, or BOM -- can partially explain why high-end phones cost more each year, many experts say that phonemakers are padding their profits.

今晚这些元器件的成本,一般称作BOM表,可以部分地解释为什么高端手机一年比一年贵,很多专家却说手机厂商在扩充他们的利润。

"There's going to be a huge immediate backlash on social media: 'What an outrage!' and quietly people will go off and buy it." said Ben Wood, CCS Insight.

在社交媒体上,会有一场巨大的快速的backlash,多么激烈反应啊,而静默的人们则走开去买手机。CCS Insight的Ben Wood说。

"I certainly accept that some elements of the cost came from the components and the manufacturing process… but not to that order of magnitude," Wood said on a phone call in July. "I also believe that Apple made a strategic decision to increase the price of the flagship iPhone to maximize the returns on a really amazing portfolio."

我自然可以接受来自元器件和制造流程的成本,但是对于如此体量的订单我却难以接受。七月份在一次通话中Wood说,我也相信苹果制定了战略性的决定以提高旗舰手机的价格,从而 最大化收益。

Carolina Milanesi, an analyst with Creative Strategies, agrees.

一位创造性策略的分析师Carolina Milanesi同意这种说法。

"There is certainly more going into these phones than ever before," she said in an email. "The BOM is certainly growing for these devices, but I do think that there is a premium margin applied by the brands to their flagship products because they are status symbols."

她在一封email里表明,毋庸置疑比以往需要投入更多到这些手机上,这些设备的BOM表肯定要增长,但是我想一定有一个   范围适用于这些品牌的旗舰手机,因为他们是身份的象征。

Where's the price ceiling?

哪里是价格的天花板呢?

Apple's $1,000 iPhone X (technically $999 without tax), is clearly just the beginning.

苹果的1000美金的iPhone X, 很明显才刚刚开始。

"As long as the phones are our main go-to computing device throughout the day, buyers will be willing to spend more," Milanesi said.

只要手机是我们日常最频繁触碰的计算设备,买家会愿意花费更多来购买的。 Milanesi说。

In setting the precedent for a $1,000 phone that people are proven to buy, Apple has established a new price point not just for itself but for the mobile industry as a whole.

在设置了1000美金手机的先例,并证明人们会购买,苹果不仅仅为它自己,也为整个行业建立了一个新的价格点。

In making Apple's most expensive phone ever, the company completely overhauled the phone's design, removing the iconic home button and becoming the first to use 3D depth-sensing technology to unlock a device, with no fingerprint backup. 

为了制造苹果历史上最昂贵的手机,它大刀阔斧地改变了手机的设计,移除了标志性的home键,并首先使用3D深度感应技术来解锁手机,同时不用指纹做备用。

This design allowed Apple to give the iPhone X a larger screen than the iPhone 8 Plus, on a body that's almost as small as the iPhone 8. Finally, Apple enforced the iPhone X's "premium" look and feel by giving this device exclusive features, like 3D animated emojis, called Animoji, which the other two iPhones for 2017 don't have.

这种设计使得苹果可以在iPhone X上拥有一个比iPhone Plus还要大的屏幕,要知道它的尺寸几乎是和iPhone 一样。 最终,苹果通过加载一些独有的特征,比如3D动画表情包(Animoji),这个在2017年其他两个iPhone型号上是没有的,赋予了iPhone X  高贵的外貌和感觉。

Now, as we head into the fall's iPhone season, Apple has a chance to iterate on a new line of iPhone X phones that resets the iPhone's tippy-toe price point.

现在,当我们马上要进入今年秋天的iPhone季,苹果有机会迭代出新的iPhone X 产品线,刷新iPhone 的偷偷摸摸的价格点。

"There is great scope to have [an iPhone] X Plus. Why wouldn't that be $1,200?," Wood said, adding that people would snap up an even more expensive iPhone X. "There's going to be a huge immediate backlash on social media: 'What an outrage!' and quietly people will go off and buy it."

iPhone X Plus可能的范围很大。为什么不能是1200美金呢?Wood说,进一步说人们会抢购一个更加昂贵的iPhone X。社交媒体上又会发生巨大的立刻的撕裂:“多么大胆的举动啊!”以及安静的人们则是走开去买手机。

With today's iPhone X nudging prices skyward, Samsung, Huawei, OnePlus and others have a reason to follow suit. For example, even if the OnePlus 6 costs roughly 30 percent more than the same model did two years ago, you'll still only spend about half as much for it as you would for an iPhone X, a relative value that many find easy enough to swallow for a "cheaper" phone with high-end parts.

既然今天iPhone X悄悄推动价格向上,三星、华为、一加和其他厂商就有了一个理由去跟随。例如,即使一加6plus比两年前的同款手机贵了30%,你还是只花了约iPhone X一半的价钱买到一部具有高端配置的手机,这样用相对的价值去吞下更便宜的手机是不是显得更容易些?


"When Apple announced the iPhone X for a thousand bucks... they did the whole industry a favor," Wood said. "That gave all the other manufacturers some breathing space and I can imagine there was a certain delight in the corridors of Samsung and Huawei and others."

当苹果宣布iPhone X的价格约为1000美金时,他们为整个行业做了件好事,Wood说。这件事为其他生产厂商制造了一些生存空间,我可以想象在三星、华为和其他厂商的走廊上他们是相当愉快的。

In other words, while Apple might pocket the most profit, its audacious iPhone X price tag helps competitors make more money per phone, too.

换句话说,苹果或许获取了最多的利润,它的大胆地iPhone价格签同时也帮助竞争对手们赚更多的单机利润。


Don't worry, midrange phones are still affordable

别担心,中端手机还是买得起的。

High prices on top-tier phones may not mean that the cost of every phone will rise. 

高端手机的高价格并不意味着每一部手机的成本都会上升。


We continue to see fierce competition in the middle and low end where phones like theMotorola Moto G6andE5families turn out excellent budget handsets for just about the same price each year: $250, £219 or $399 in the case of the Moto G6.

我们接下来看看再中端和低端手机市场的惨烈竞争, 比如 摩托罗拉的Moto G6和E5系列,作为性价比颇高的手机,Moto G6每年都保持相同的价格 250美金/219英镑/399澳元。

Huawei's Honor brand also notably produces midprice, midtier devices that strike a balance between value and cost, often while hewing to popular designs and features, like slim bezels and dual, portrait-mode cameras that people crave. Xiaomi,Nokia, Oppo,Asus and other brands also help fill the gap worldwide by quietly cranking out basic, affordable phones for cost-sensitive buyers.

华为的荣耀品牌也是出了名的中端配置,中端价格,在价值和价格方面保持了一种平衡,同时砍掉一些潮流的设计和特点,比如纤巧的前挡板和呼声很高的双摄人像摄像头。小米,诺基亚、OPPO,Asus,及其他品牌也在低调地帮忙填补中间的空档,粗制滥造一些基本款、负担得起的手机提供给价格敏感的购买人群。

So while the shiniest, most powerful devices are still locked on a path to their highest prices yet, there's still a strong demand for midrange and entry-level phones aimed at people with tighter budgets or more basic needs.

所以,当最耀眼、功能最强大的设备锁定在他们的高价格这条道上,对中端和入门级的手机依然有强劲的需求,来满足钱包吃紧的人们或者更基础的需求。

If a $1,000 phone sounds too outrageous, you may need to find beauty in a more modest phone, or get over the sticker shock and accept that the days of a $500 flagship phone are long behind us.

如果1000美金的手机听起来有点吓人,你可能需要在更弱一些机型中发现他们美妙之处,或者适应你的标签震惊,接受用500美金买到一台旗舰手机的日子已经过去很久了。

©著作权归作者所有,转载或内容合作请联系作者
  • 序言:七十年代末,一起剥皮案震惊了整个滨河市,随后出现的几起案子,更是在滨河造成了极大的恐慌,老刑警刘岩,带你破解...
    沈念sama阅读 205,132评论 6 478
  • 序言:滨河连续发生了三起死亡事件,死亡现场离奇诡异,居然都是意外死亡,警方通过查阅死者的电脑和手机,发现死者居然都...
    沈念sama阅读 87,802评论 2 381
  • 文/潘晓璐 我一进店门,熙熙楼的掌柜王于贵愁眉苦脸地迎上来,“玉大人,你说我怎么就摊上这事。” “怎么了?”我有些...
    开封第一讲书人阅读 151,566评论 0 338
  • 文/不坏的土叔 我叫张陵,是天一观的道长。 经常有香客问我,道长,这世上最难降的妖魔是什么? 我笑而不...
    开封第一讲书人阅读 54,858评论 1 277
  • 正文 为了忘掉前任,我火速办了婚礼,结果婚礼上,老公的妹妹穿的比我还像新娘。我一直安慰自己,他们只是感情好,可当我...
    茶点故事阅读 63,867评论 5 368
  • 文/花漫 我一把揭开白布。 她就那样静静地躺着,像睡着了一般。 火红的嫁衣衬着肌肤如雪。 梳的纹丝不乱的头发上,一...
    开封第一讲书人阅读 48,695评论 1 282
  • 那天,我揣着相机与录音,去河边找鬼。 笑死,一个胖子当着我的面吹牛,可吹牛的内容都是我干的。 我是一名探鬼主播,决...
    沈念sama阅读 38,064评论 3 399
  • 文/苍兰香墨 我猛地睁开眼,长吁一口气:“原来是场噩梦啊……” “哼!你这毒妇竟也来了?” 一声冷哼从身侧响起,我...
    开封第一讲书人阅读 36,705评论 0 258
  • 序言:老挝万荣一对情侣失踪,失踪者是张志新(化名)和其女友刘颖,没想到半个月后,有当地人在树林里发现了一具尸体,经...
    沈念sama阅读 42,915评论 1 300
  • 正文 独居荒郊野岭守林人离奇死亡,尸身上长有42处带血的脓包…… 初始之章·张勋 以下内容为张勋视角 年9月15日...
    茶点故事阅读 35,677评论 2 323
  • 正文 我和宋清朗相恋三年,在试婚纱的时候发现自己被绿了。 大学时的朋友给我发了我未婚夫和他白月光在一起吃饭的照片。...
    茶点故事阅读 37,796评论 1 333
  • 序言:一个原本活蹦乱跳的男人离奇死亡,死状恐怖,灵堂内的尸体忽然破棺而出,到底是诈尸还是另有隐情,我是刑警宁泽,带...
    沈念sama阅读 33,432评论 4 322
  • 正文 年R本政府宣布,位于F岛的核电站,受9级特大地震影响,放射性物质发生泄漏。R本人自食恶果不足惜,却给世界环境...
    茶点故事阅读 39,041评论 3 307
  • 文/蒙蒙 一、第九天 我趴在偏房一处隐蔽的房顶上张望。 院中可真热闹,春花似锦、人声如沸。这庄子的主人今日做“春日...
    开封第一讲书人阅读 29,992评论 0 19
  • 文/苍兰香墨 我抬头看了看天上的太阳。三九已至,却和暖如春,着一层夹袄步出监牢的瞬间,已是汗流浃背。 一阵脚步声响...
    开封第一讲书人阅读 31,223评论 1 260
  • 我被黑心中介骗来泰国打工, 没想到刚下飞机就差点儿被人妖公主榨干…… 1. 我叫王不留,地道东北人。 一个月前我还...
    沈念sama阅读 45,185评论 2 352
  • 正文 我出身青楼,却偏偏与公主长得像,于是被迫代替她去往敌国和亲。 传闻我的和亲对象是个残疾皇子,可洞房花烛夜当晚...
    茶点故事阅读 42,535评论 2 343

推荐阅读更多精彩内容

  • rljs by sennchi Timeline of History Part One The Cognitiv...
    sennchi阅读 7,289评论 0 10
  • 我们到底怕什么 我们到底怕什么,很多时候,在经意不经意之间,我们会觉得害怕像一条毒蛇,时不时的缠绕在我们身上,让我...
    耀坤Rosy阅读 186评论 0 3
  • 昨天是我三十岁的生日,昨天之前一直期待着能发生一些不一样的事情,可是终究没有发生。每一天都是一年一度(有些确实可能...
    9c80a2f86c0f阅读 124评论 0 0