考虑后续与再后续的结果

CHAPTER 8

1.8Weighsecond- and third-order consequences.

衡量第二和第三位的后果

By recognizing the higher-levelconsequences nature optimizes for, I’ve come to see that people who overweighthe first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects ofsecond- and subsequent-order consequences rarely reach their goals. This isbecause first-order consequences often have opposite desirabilities fromsecond-order consequences, resulting in big mistakes in decision making. Forexample, the first-order consequences of exercise (pain and time spent) arecommonly considered undesirable, while the second-order consequences (betterhealth and more attractive appearance) are desirable. Similarly, food thattastes good is often bad for you and vice versa.

意识到自然优化的更高阶的后果后,我开始明白过于看重第一顺序决定后果的人会忽视第二和第三个顺位后果而很难达成目标。因为第一位后果相对于第二位而言常有者相反的理想的高度,而导致决策制定时更大的错误。举例,第一顺位的行动后果(痛苦和时间耗费)通常被认为是没有希望的。很简单,通常好吃的食物对身体都不好并

Quite often the first-order consequencesare the temptations that cost us what we really want, and sometimes they arethe barriers that stand in our way. It’s almost as though nature sorts us bythrowing us trick choices that have both types of consequences and penalizingthose who make their decisions on the basis of the first-order consequencesalone.

By contrast, people who choose what theyreally want, and avoid the temptations and get over the pains that drive themaway from what they really want, are much more likely to have successful lives.

通常第一顺位的后果是会混淆真相的诱惑,有时他们会成为我们前进道路的障碍。大自然通常会一次给我们两种后果的把戏来进行自然选择,并惩罚那些只依据第一性后果做出决策的人。

作为对比,那些选择尊崇自己意愿的人会避开这些诱惑,披荆斩棘得到真正想要的,有更大可能过上成功的人生。

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