FINDING A WAY PAST MY INTRACTABLE INVESTMENT PROBLEM
解决之道--我的终极投资问题
Makingmoney in the markets is tough. The brilliant trader and investor Bernard Baruchput it well when he said, “If you are ready to give up everything else andstudy the whole history and background of the market and all principalcompanies whose stocks are on the board as carefully as a medical studentstudiesanatomy—ifyou can do all that and in addition you have the cool nerves of agambler, the sixth senseof aclairvoyantand the courage of a lion, you have a ghost of a chance.”
译文：在市场赚钱是非常困难的。明星经纪人和投资人伯纳德巴鲁是这样说的，“如果你做好了放弃其他所有事情的准备，学习所有的股票市场交易公司完整历史和背景以及原则，就像一个学医的学生学习解剖学那样仔细-如果你能做到以上所以并像赌徒一样的冷酷无情，有着远见卓识者的第六感和狮子的勇气，只有这样你才有一点机会成功”
读后感：伯纳德巴鲁的话总结了在股票市场或者投资市场成功的几个要点；
[if !supportLists]1、[endif]专注：学习所有公司的历史、背景和公司原则（就是公司的愿景、目标），放弃其他所有事，ALL IN；
[if !supportLists]2、[endif]心思细腻、冷静、奇妙的第六感；
[if !supportLists]3、[endif]勇气
以上都具备你可能才具有了一点机会。
很难是不是，那么作者现在缺什么那？2是不是？第六感？作者在前面的论述中已经提到多次了。我们都知道第六感很神秘，作者显然希望运用原则和数据去帮助自己提高这方面的能力。让我们看看他是怎么做的吧。
Anatomy==解剖学
Gambler=投机者 商人。
clairvoyant ==有洞察力的
a ghost of
a chance== 一点一丝机会。
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Inretrospect, the mistakes that led to my crash seemed embarrassingly obvious.First, I had been wildlyoverconfidentand had let my emotions get the better of me. I learned (again) that no matterhow much I knew and how hard I worked, I could never be certain enough toproclaimthings like whatI’d said onWall $treet Week: “There’ll be no softlanding. I can say that with absolute certainty, because I know how marketswork.” I am still shocked and embarrassed by how arrogant I was.
Second, Iagain saw the value of studying history. What had happened, after all, was“another one of those.” I should have realized that debts denominated in one’sown currency can be successfully restructured with the government’s help, andthat when central banks simultaneously provide stimulus (as they did in March1932, at the low point of the Great Depression, and as they did again in 1982),inflation and deflation can be balanced against each other. As in 1971, I hadfailed to recognize the lessons of history. Realizing that led me to try tomake sense of all movements in all major economies and markets going back ahundred years and to come up with carefully tested decision-making principlesthat are timeless and universal.
译文：回忆起来，导致我彻底失败的原因其实非常显而易见的，也是令人非常难堪的。首先我自信过头了，情绪控制了自我。我再一次的学习到不论我知道多少、我多磨努力，我也依旧不能确定我在华尔街周末节目上说的话：“不可能软着陆”我绝对肯定。因为我知道市场时怎样运行的。我至今仍被当时我的傲慢自大震惊。
第二，我再一次意识到历史的价值，所有已经发生的其实都只是“历史中的一个”，也就是阳光之下无新鲜事。我本该早就意识到一个国家的货币市场债务都可以通过政府的帮助得到解决。当中央银行同时开始提供刺激政策（就像1932年3月在大萧条的最低谷时做的，1982年也一样），通货膨胀和紧缩就能彼此平衡。1971年我失败于没有吸取历史的教训，从所有重大经济和市场活动中嗅到失败的气氛，经过仔细斟酌的决策原则是不易时间改变的和通用的。
读后感：1982年的惨败让作者体会很多，增长很多。失败是成功之母，恐怕作者是深有体会了。也促使作者从历史中寻找答案。
2019年的经济大萧条这次作者不知道有没有提前嗅到那？从目前桥水基金发出的信号来看，显然桥水已经在做准备了，并警告了世人。
soft
landing==经济软着陆
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Third, Iwas reminded of how difficult it is to time markets. My long-term estimates ofequilibriumlevels werenot reliable enough to bet on; too many things could happen between the time Iplaced my bets and the time (if ever) that my estimates were reached.
Staring atthese failings, I realized that if I was going to move forward without a highlikelihoodof gettingwhacked again, I would have to look at myselfobjectivelyand change—starting by learning abetter way of handling the natural aggressiveness I’ve always shown in goingafter what I wanted.
Imaginethat in order to have a great life you have to cross a dangerous jungle. Youcan stay safe where you are and have an ordinary life, or you can risk crossingthe jungle to have a terrific life. How would you approach that choice? Take amoment to think about it because it is the sort of choice that, in one form oranother, we all have to make.
译文：第三，我同时意识到推算市场时多么的困难。我的长线估算市场平衡的水平还不足以可靠到可以用来赌博，在我将赌注和预测的时间点来临之间足够发生太多事情了。
看着这些失败的案例。我意识到如果我在遭受更多打击之前没有更好的希望，我或许能提前布局。我应该客观的审视自己，从一开始就该用更好的办法改改我对于自己想要的东西的那种侵略性。
想象一下为了取得更好的生活你必须穿越危险的丛林，你可以选择留在安全的地方，过普通的生活，又或者你选择穿越丛林经历可怕的人生，究竟是怎么打成选择的那？？花点时间去思考吧，因为这种货那种选择本就是我们必须做的。
读后感：因为年轻所以盲目自信，没有意识到自己的水平还没有达到可以避险的水平。但作者显然不后悔这样做，因为作者的选择已经决定了他必然会这么做，他想要的不是普通人的生活，丛林捕猎才是作者想要的。
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Even aftermy crash, I knew I had to go after the terrific life with all its risks, so thequestion was how to “cross the dangerous jungle” without getting killed. Inretrospect, my crash wasone of the best things that ever happened to me because it gave me thehumilityI needed tobalance my aggressiveness. I learned a great fear of being wrong that shiftedmy mind-set from thinking “I’m right” to asking myself “How do I know I’mright?” And I saw clearly that the best way to answer this question is byfinding other independent thinkers who are on the same mission as me and whosee things differently from me. By engaging them in thoughtful disagreement,I’d be able to understand their reasoning and have them stress-test mine. Thatway, we can all raise our probability of being right.
译文：即时在我失败后，我明白我必须承受那些风险之下的可怕生活，我所要面对的只是如何穿过可怕的丛林而不被杀掉。作为参照这次失败恰恰是曾经发生过最好的，因为他带给我谦逊，谦卑，我需要平衡我的侵略性。我体会到了那种因为失败导致我的思维定式从思考“我是正确到”到“我如何知道我是正确的”。并且我清楚的明白这个问题的最佳答案是寻找另一个独立思考人，他和我一样面对同样的任务但有着不同的思维角度。经过同样深度思考的不同意见，我才能理解他们的推理并对我自己进行应力测试。只有那样，我们才能提升自己正确的概率。
读后感：光靠自己不行哦。必须找和你有不同见解，不同考虑问题、分析问题视角的人，以此为参照物来反射自己。看来是找到问题的解决方案了。
stress-test==应力测试
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In otherwords, I just want to be right—I don’t care if the right answer comes from me.So I learned to beradicallyopen-minded to allow others to point out what I might be missing. I saw thatthe only way I could succeed would be to:
1.Seek out thesmartest people who disagreed with me so I could try to understand theirreasoning.
2.Know when not tohave an opinion.
3.Develop, test,and systemize timeless and universal principles.
4.Balance risks inways that keep the big upside while reducing the downside.
译文：换句话说我就是想要胜利。我不在乎正确答案是否来自我自己。所以我学着彻底放空自己便于允许任何人指出我的错漏之处。我明白我唯一可能成功的办法是：
[if !supportLists]1、[endif]寻找最聪明的和我意见不同的家伙，以便于我能理解他们的理由。
[if !supportLists]2、[endif]放下成见，不偏不倚
[if !supportLists]3、[endif]开发、测试，系统化那些没有时间限制，通用的原则
[if !supportLists]4、[endif]平衡最大化优点并减少负面影响的风险的办法。
读后感：聪明人总是喜欢找聪明人共事，因为能从彼此身上学到闪光点，只有这样才能提升自己。
Downside==负面的，下降的。
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Doing thesethings significantly improved my returns relative to my risks, and the sameprinciples apply in other aspects of life. Most importantly, this experienceled me to build Bridgewater as an ideameritocracy—not an autocracy in which I lead andothers follow, and not ademocracyin which everyone’s vote is equal—but ameritocracythat encourages thoughtfuldisagreements and explores and weighs people’s opinions inproportionto theirmerits.
译文：相对于风险而言做这些事情显著提高了我的回报，同样的原则如果运用到生活的其他方面。最重要的是，这次经历让我把桥水基金建成一个智能库，而不是我来领导而其他人只能服从的独裁机构，也不是一个每个人都能平等投票的民主机构，而是一个精英集团-鼓励发表不同意见，探测并用人们的价值比例来衡量他们的意见。
读后感：桥水基金获得重生，并形成了一个精英集团，而不是原来作者一言堂的公司机构。这样能更好的决策，更大可能避免失败的决策系统诞生了。但是聪明人从哪里找？
Democracy==民主团体 机构 政体。
Meritocracy==精英教育，精英团体。
Autocracy==独裁政体，团体，政治。
三个词的词根一样哦：cracy统治；政体;
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Bringingthese opposing opinions into the open and exploring them taught me a lot abouthow people think. I came to see that people’s greatest weaknesses are theflipsides of theirgreatest strengths. For example, some people areproneto take on too much risk while others aretoo risk averse; some are too focused on the details while others are too big-picture.Most are too much one way and not enough another. Typically,by doing what comes naturally to
us, we fail to account for our weaknesses, which leads us to crash. Whathappens after we crash is most important. Successful people change in ways thatallow them to continue to take advantage of their strengths whilecompensatingfor theirweaknesses and unsuccessful people don’t. Later in the book I will describespecific strategies for change, but the important thing to note here is thatbeneficial change begins when you can acknowledge and even embrace yourweaknesses.
译文：将这些对立的观点放到一起，公开，探索他们教会我很多关于人们是如何思考的。我开始发现人们最大的缺点是他们最大长处的失控一侧。举例，有些人倾向于冒太多风险，而有些人则厌恶风险；有些人聚焦于细节，而有些人则很大条。绝大多数人都是在一方面着重太多，而忽视其他。典型的是通过做对我们来说自然而然的事，我们总把失败归结于我们的弱点，失败之后发生了什么才是最重要的。成功的人总是通过变通以持续不断的从他们的长处来获利，并弥补因为弱点的损失。而不成功的人不这样。这本书的后面我将描述变革的特殊策略，这里要标明的重要事情是当你从中获利并拥抱你的缺点时积极的有益的改变开始了。
读后感：简单说就是不断加长长板，获利大于损失就是盈利。认识到自己的缺点并积极拥抱它，良性改变就开始了。
Compensating==弥补。
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Over theyears that followed, I found that most of the extraordinarily successful peopleI’ve met had similar big painful failures that taught them the lessons thatultimately helped them succeed. Looking back on getting fired from Apple in1985, Steve Jobs said, “It was awful-tasting medicine, but I guess the patientneeded it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don’t losefaith. I’m convinced thatthe only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did.”
译文：接下来的很多年，我发现大多数我遇到的有着非凡成就的人都遇到过近似的并最终帮助他们成功的失败。回顾1985年被苹果辞退时，乔布斯说，“非常糟糕的一剂良药，但是我猜患者需要它，有时生活用砖头打击了你。不要丢失信仰。我唯一能确认的事情就是推着我不断前进的就是我爱我做的事情”。
读后感：乔布斯失败后的感悟和作者不同，但是不妨碍他们最后都取得了成功。
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I saw thatto doexceptionallywell you have to push your limits and that, if you push your limits, you willcrash and it will hurt a lot. You will think you have failed—but that won’t betrue unless you give up. Believe it or not, your pain willfadeand you will havemany other opportunities ahead of you, though you might not see them at thetime. The most important thing you can do is to gather the lessons thesefailures provide and gain humility and radical open-mindedness in order toincrease your chances of success. Then you press on.
译文：如果你想做的特别好，那么你需要与你的极限对抗，如果对抗你的极限，可能你会遭受打击，也许会受很多伤。你可能会认为自己已经失败了—但是那不是真的除非你放弃。不管你信还是不信，你的痛苦会逐渐消散，在你面前会出现很多其他机会，也许你可能一时间看不到他，你能做的最重要的事情是收集那些失败带给你的教训，收获谦逊，彻底的虚心以增加你获胜的几率，接下来奋力前进吧。
读后感：失败是成功之母，失败了别放弃，放弃了就什么机会都没有了，坚持住，总结反思，保持冷静，谦逊，这样才有机会。
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My finallesson was perhaps the most important one, because it has applied again andagain throughout my life. At first, it seemed to me that I faced anall-or-nothing choice: I could either take on a lot of risk in pursuit of highreturns (and occasionally find myself ruined) or I could lower my risk andsettle for lower returns. But I needed to have both low risk and high returns,and by setting out on a mission to discover how I could, I learned to go slowlywhen faced with the choice between two things that you need that are seeminglyat odds. That way you can figure out how to have as much of both as possible.There is almost always a good path that you just haven’t discovered yet, solook for it until you find it rather than settle for the choice that is thenapparent to you.
Asdifficult as this was, I eventually found a way to have my cake and eat it too.I call it the “Holy Grail of Investing,” and it’s the secret behind Bridgewater’ssuccess.
译文：我的最终教训可能是最重要的一个。因为他贯穿我的人生并一次次的得以应用。开始，对我来说似乎是一个倾其所有-或者一无所有的选择：要么承受大量风险或者高回报（偶尔可能会导致我破产），要么低风险低收益。但是我想要低风险 高收益，于是我设置了一个我怎么样才能低风险高收益的任务。我试着开始慢慢面对两个不协调的你需要的事情。那种你能清晰描绘出两者之间最可能的方式。期间总有你还没有发现的优质路径。所以持续寻找知道你发现比表面上看来能接受的选择更好的。
尽管非常困难，我还是发现了更好的获利办法，我称之为“投资圣杯”。就是隐藏在桥水基金成功背后的秘密。
读后感：作者留个包袱，估计下一章会揭示真想把。老实说这一章很啰嗦，是作者的心路历程也是痛苦的探索过程，可以快速略过。
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我是007李小军，以上是我自己的翻译，也许不会太准确，我能保证也不会偏离作者的意思太远，不至于误导各位，谢谢观看。
007-4478李小军
2018-6-18
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