英文早读第201篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
In 1977 the winds in insurance underwriting were squarely behind us. Very large rate increases were effected throughout the industry in 1976 to offset the disastrous underwriting results of 1974 and 1975. But, because insurance policies typically are written for one-year periods, with pricing mistakes capable of correction only upon renewal, it was 1977 before the full impact was felt upon earnings of those earlier rate increases.
1977年，保险承保业务的风向完全对我们有利。1976年，整个行业大幅提高了费率，以弥补1974年和1975年承保业务的惨重损失。然而，由于保险单通常为期一年，定价失误只有在保单续保的时候才能纠正，所以直到1977年，之前费率上调对收益的全面影响才显现出来。
The pendulum now is beginning to swing the other way. We estimate that costs involved in the insurance areas in which we operate rise at close to 1% per month. This is due to continuous monetary inflation affecting the cost of repairing humans and property, as well as "social inflation", a boarding definition by society and juries of what is covered by insurance policies. Unless rates rise at a comparable 1% per month, underwriting profits must shrink. Recently the pace of rate increases has slowed dramatically, and it is our expectation that underwriting margins generally will be declining by the second half of the year.
如今，形势开始朝相反方向转变。我们估计，我们所经营的保险领域的成本每月攀升近1%。这是由于持续的货币通胀影响了人身与财产的修复成本，同时 “社会通胀” 也在起作用，即社会和陪审团对保险单涵盖范围的界定日益宽泛。除非费率也以每月1% 左右的相比幅度上升，否则承保利润必然会缩水。最近，费率上涨的步伐已大幅放缓，我们预计，总体而言，承保利润率在今年下半年将会下降。
We must again give credit to Phil Liesche, greatly assisted by Roland Miller in Underwriting and Bill Lyons in Claims, for an extraordinary underwriting achievement in National Indemnity's traditional auto and general liability business during 1977. Large volume gains have been accompanied by excellent underwriting margins following contraction or withdrawal by many competitors in the wake of the 1974-75 crisis period. These conditions will reverse before long. In the meantime, large sums have been made available for investment. As markets loosen and rates become inadequate, we again will face the challenge of philosophically accepting reduced volume. Unusual managerial discipline will be required, as it runs counter to normal institutional behavior to let the other fellow take away business - even at foolish prices.
我们必须再次赞扬菲尔利舍，在承保部门的罗兰米勒以及理赔部门的比尔莱昂斯大力协助下，1977年国家赔偿公司的传统的汽车与一般责任险业务取得了非凡的承保业绩。在1974 - 1975年危机时期后，许多竞争对手缩减业务或退出市场，在此情况下，我们不仅业务量大幅增长，还保持了出色的承保利润率。但这种情况不久后就会逆转。与此同时，大量资金可供投资。随着市场竞争加剧，费率变得不合理，我们将再次面临从理念上接受业务量缩减的挑战。这需要非同寻常的管理自律，因为眼睁睁看着同行抢走业务，哪怕对方出价愚蠢，这与常规的企业行为相悖。
7.squarely：明确无误的；毫不含糊地
8.pendulum：钟摆
9.monetary：钱的；货币的
