Frequentist vs. Bayesian (Maximum Likelihood Estimation vs. Maximum A Posteriori )

\theta - Quantity of interest or parameter of a model

  • Frequentist: \theta is described as unknown and deterministic
    Example: Throwing a coin for 100 times, there are 60 times that coin head appears, then P(head)=\theta =\frac{60}{100}=0.6. When sample data approaches infinity, this method from frequentist is able to give an accurate estimation of \theta. However, if sample data is very scarce, then severe bias could occur. To conclude, more data, more accurate estimation of \theta with frequentist method.

  • Bayesian: \theta is described as random. There are two inputs: prior P(\theta), likelihood (似然) P(X|\theta). There is one output: Posterior P(\theta|X)
    Bayesian estimation is based on Bayesian rule:
    P(\theta|X)=\frac{P(X|\theta) \times P(\theta)}{P(X)}
    Therefore, we have posterior \propto likelihood \times prior. Because, X as observation (or sample data) is given as a condition in P(\theta|X), so P(X)=const.
    Example: Considering this example of flipping a coin again. P(head)=P(\theta|X) is a distribution, instead of a deterministic value of 0.6 in this example. With the increase of sample data, P(\theta|X) trusts measurement more than prior.
    Note: if prior P(\theta) is uniform distribution, then Bayesian method is equal to frequentist method.

  • Maximum likelihood Estimation (MLE) - frequentist method
    A given set of observations, random sample data X=(x_1, x_2, ..., x_n), which is independent and identical distribution. The estimation of \theta using MLE method can be expressed below:
    \begin{align} \hat{\theta}_{MLE} &= arg \ max \ P(X;\theta)\\ &= arg \ max \ P(x_1;\theta)P(x_2;\theta)...P(x_n;\theta)\\ &= arg \ max \log \prod \limits_{i=1}^n P(x_i;\theta)\\ &= arg \ max \sum_{i=1}^n \log P(x_i;\theta)\\ &= arg \ min -\sum_{i=1}^n \log P(x_i;\theta) \end{align}
    The last line of above equation is called Negative Log likelihood (NLL)

  • Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) - Bayesian method
    A given set of observations, random sample data X=(x_1, x_2, ..., x_n), which is independent and identical distribution. The estimation of \theta using MAP method can be expressed below:
    \begin{align} \hat{\theta}_{MAP} &= arg \ max \ P(\theta|X)\\ &= arg \ min - \log P(\theta|X)\\ &= arg \ min - \log P(X|\theta) - \log P(\theta) + log P(X)\\ &= arg \ min - \log P(X|\theta) - \log P(\theta) \end{align}
    Given that prior is a Gaussian distribution:
    P(\theta) = const \times e^{(-\frac{\theta^2}{2\sigma^2})}
    Then
    - \log P(\theta) = const +\frac{\theta^2}{2\sigma^2}

https://www.sohu.com/a/215176689_610300

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