英文：
Berkshire Hathaway
Buffettology
What four decades of correspondence from the Oracle of Omaha reveal
WHEN FUTURE generations want to study today's capitalists, a good place to start would be Warren Buffett's annual letters to the shareholders of his firm, Berkshire Hathaway. Unfortunately, any economic insights from the world's most celebrated investor are woven in with lots of corny jokes about golf and fast food. Mindful that readers may not have the intestinal fortitude to stomach the Oracle of Omaha's unique sense of humour, The Economist has performed a textual analysis of 40 years' worth of Mr Buffett's letters to see what his language reveals about his thinking.
Berkshire has changed a lot. Having grown considerably in size, Mr Buffett now speaks of "businesses" rather than "business". He has also taken to using the adjective "huge"(see chart). The letters track how the firm used to focus on buying small stakes in listed companies; it now buys large, established firms outright.
This shifting strategy has made it tough for outsiders to value Berkshire properly. On the face of it last year was a pretty dismal one for the company. Berkshire's book value per share rose by just o.4%, its worst showing since the financial crisis. Earnings were just $4bn,a meagre 1.2% return on equity.
Mr Buffett contends these figures partly reflect arcane accounting standards which do not cope well with his varied investments. A change in accounting principals forces him to put mark-to-market swings in the value of his $173bn equity portfolio through his earnings, resulting in a $20.6bn loss in 2018. By contrast, the book value of companies Mr Buffett owns outright, an increasing share of his portfolio, are carried at "far below" their current value, making it tough to assess Berkshire's performance by its annual change in book value. Mr Buffett has moaned about these dynamics a lot. References to America's Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) have soared.
In other ways, though, Mr Buffett remains consistent. His philosophy has always been to look for cheap companies. He reckons that shares in firms with decent long-term prospects are too pricey at the moment. Instead, Berkshire will focus on buying back its own shares as well as investing in liquid stocks in 2019. Mentions of "repurchases" are on the rise but "acquisition" shows up just three times this year.
Historically, Mr Buffett has been loth to borrow vast sums of money, arguing that "rational people don't risk what they have and need for what they don't have and don't need". He made an exception in 2013, when he invested in Kraft Heinz. This was one of Mr Buffett' s biggest mistakes. Shares in Kraft Heinz have plummeted. Berkshire has taken a hit of nearly $3bn to its balance-sheet as a consequence. Mentions of "debt" spiked in this year's letter.
The biggest question facing investors in Berkshire is who might replace Mr Buffett, now 88, as leader of the company. His partner, Charlie Munger, turned 95 in January. The two most obvious candidates are Ajit Jain, who is 67, and Greg Abel, 56. They were both appointed to Berkshire's board last year and got 3 mentions each in Mr Buffett's letter this year. Mr Buffett claims Berkshire's blood flows in their veins. In years to come their letters might prove this to be the case-if so, Berkshire's investors are likely to be happy. Especially if they skip the jokes.
官方翻译：
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
巴菲特法则
奥马哈先知四十年的致股东信揭示了什么
未来的人如果想研究今天的资本家，不妨先从沃伦·巴菲特每年致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的信入手。遗憾的是，这位世界上最负盛名的投资者在发表任何经济见解时总要掺杂许多关于高尔夫和快餐的老土玩笑。考虑到读者可能无法消受这位奥马哈先知独特的幽默感，本刊对巴菲特40年来的致股东信做了一番文本分析，以揭示他言语背后的想法。
伯克希尔已经发生了很大的变化。由于规模已大大扩张，巴菲特现在谈的都是“各项业务”，而不单是“业务”。他还开始用起“巨大”这个形容词来（见图表）。这些致股东信勾勒出这家公司投资重点的变化轨迹：过去专注于购买上市公司的少数股权，现在则是直接收购大型成熟企业。
这种策略的转变让外人很难对伯克希尔做出合理的估值。表面上看，该公司去年的业绩颇为惨淡。伯克希尔的每股账面价值仅上涨了0.4%，是金融危机以来最糟糕的表现。盈利仅为40亿美元，股本回报率仅为1.2%。
巴菲特认为，出现这样的数字一定程度上是复杂难懂的会计准则使然，这些准则不能很好地反映他多样化投资的表现。会计准则的变化迫使他将1730亿美元股票投资组合的市值波动记入盈利，在2018年因而产生了206亿美元的亏损。相比之下，那些巴菲特完全拥有的公司（它们在其投资组合中所占份额越来越大）的账面价值却“远低于”当前市价，使得外界很难通过账面价值的年度变化来评估伯克希尔的业绩。巴菲特对这些变化的牢骚很多，提及美国公认会计准则（GAAP）的次数飙升。
不过在其他方面巴菲特倒没什么变化。他的理念一直是寻找廉价的公司。他认为目前具有良好长期前景的公司的股票价格过高，所以伯克希尔在2019年将专注于回购自己的股票以及投资流动性股票。信件中提及“回购”的次数正在上升，而“收购”一词今年只出现了三次。
从历史上看，巴菲特一直不愿意借入巨额资金，主张“理智的人不会拿自己拥有和需要的资金冒险，去追寻他们没有而不需要的东西”。他在2013年投资卡夫亨氏（Kraft Heinz）时破了一次例。这是巴菲特最大的失误之一。卡夫亨氏的股价暴跌。伯克希尔也因此承受了近30亿美元的账面损失。在今年的信中，“债务”一词出现的次数激增。
伯克希尔的投资者面临的最大问题是，谁有可能接替现年88岁的巴菲特成为公司领导者。他的搭档查理·芒格在1月满95岁。两位最显而易见的候选人是67岁的阿吉特·贾因（Ajit Jain）和56岁的格莱格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）。两人都在去年被任命为伯克希尔的董事，今年在巴菲特的致股东信中分别被提及三次。巴菲特称这两人的血管中流动着伯克希尔的血液。这一点日后也许会在他们的致股东信中得到印证——如果是这样，伯克希尔的投资者应该会感到高兴。特别是如果他们不开老土玩笑的话。
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