A History and Future of the Rise of the Robots (下)

The Present

[14] This is the phase where most of us currently labor. We almost all strive(努力挣扎着) as tools within a process that far exceeds our own work, and demands coordination with a multitude of (大量) other moving parts. I say a tool because a tool performs a task, but not a project. If a humanoid robot dressed just like our cobbler walked into his workshop and made shoes from scratch, just as our cobbler had done, he would not be a tool in the shoemaking process, he, as the cobbler before him, would be the shoemaking process.

长难句: If a humanoid robot (dressed just like our cobbler )walked into his workshop and made shoes from scratch, just as our cobbler had done, he would not be a tool in the shoemaking process, he, as the cobbler before him, would be the shoemaking process.

解释:dressed just like our cobbler 过去分词作定语，修饰robot; 双逗号之间的两个 as都是插入成分，表示像之前鞋匠做过的那样，他不是一个工具。就像他之前的鞋 匠一样，他是操纵着整个过程。

[15] Humans now undertake work largely as tools within much larger projects/tasks, and are working side by side with machines, under the schedule, virtually everywhere. I’m not lamenting（遗憾） scheduling. Coordination can make wonderful things possible. It is, however, important to understand how the massively complex and intertwined systems of coordination which service the processes of production, distribution, and consumption have dramatically impacted our relationship to time, and also have implications for the future.

长难句：It is, however, important to understand how the （massively complex and intertwined ）systems （of coordination ）（which service the processes of production, distribution, and consumption ）have dramatically impacted our relationship to time, and also have implications for the future.

解释：括号中全部都是定语修饰成分，修饰system

[16] Central to the plight of the underemployed and working poor is the reality that there is nothing to suggest that this position is either stable or sustainable. We humans are largely only still involved in the process because we’re still the cheapest option for whatever task we’re doing. Cheaper because the technology is currently too expensive or non-existent, and cheaper because wages can always be lowered. As technology advances, however, humans are increasingly less effective and more expensive than good machines. This is true not just for those working at the ground floor, but also for the managers above them.

Plight n. 困境

Sustainable adj. 持续的

The first ground: 底层的

Moving Towards the Future

[17] As the machine tools become increasingly automated, human labor is susceptible, and the position of the manager as tool is reinforced as they are as susceptible to replacement as all other human tools. Management, one of the largest professions in the Western world, becomes irrelevant through two separate but simultaneous processes. The first process occurs indirectly through attrition via a reduction of humans in the workplace for them to manage. The other process happens directly, through increasingly powerful and effective algorithmic or technological managers.

susceptible adj. 非常容易受到影响的

reinforce v. 强加

simultaneous adj. 于此同时的

attrition n. 摩擦

algorithmic adj. 算数的

[18] Think of Uber. Unlike us, machines can always be described as “willing” to do what they are told, though historically not usually as able. There may be a broken part or a bug in the code, but when capable, they will always perform as asked. This is strikingly different from most management training today, which could be described largely as as “how to deal with the pesky problem of the disobedient, undertrained, and unmotivated human tools still necessary to your processes.”

[19] Much of the initial replacement of human tools by machine tools, however, is largely not yet a replacement but a shift towards more service oriented work. The service sector in the United States accounts for over 78% of the total employment in the United States, and is growing rapidly while employment in production is not growing at all. To mix metaphors, we haven’t really been kicked out of the factory yet, (except in certain regions such as the rust belt), but have simply been moved down the conveyor line to the jobs that machines heretofore have not yet done very well.

metaphor n. 隐喻

conveyor line 生产线

heretofore 在此之前

[20] This, again, is not sustainable. The shift is primarily because of the difficulty of creating effective service-providing technology, and is temporary as machines can eventually be concocted to provide those services as well. For example, think of customer service call centers. Once you called and spoke to someone from your own country, then often to someone from another country, and now increasingly, you may ask your question in conversational language and have it answered by the speech recognizing robot on the other end, all without so much as a minute spent on hold.

[21] As artificial intelligence and machine learning develops, particularly in their ability to understand and contribute in natural human conversation, humans will reach the end of their usefulness in an increasing number of industries systems entirely. Over 8 million people in the United States are employed in the trucking industry, for example. Otto, recently acquired by Uber, is already testing autonomous trucks on the roads. Tesla has announced plans to venture into the autonomous semi-truck business. Peloton Technologies has developed trucking software, which allows these trucks to “link” up in lines on the highway saving tremendous amounts of time and gas. By nearly all accounts autonomous trucking are expected to be adopted much more quickly than consumer vehicles, which themselves appear only a few years from introduction.

artificial adj. 人造的

tremendous adj. 大量的

The Future

[22] Moving into the not so distant future, our cobbler lost his job in the factory about 50 years ago but luckily was able to get a job in a suburban mall selling shoes at Foot Keeper. Doing such a fine job on the floor he was promoted to supervisor and eventually store manager. Foot Keeper, however, is phasing out the store model. You peruse through various styles online and pick your favorite. You then throw down your phone and take 3D scans of your feet which are sent directly to the Foot Keeper factory filled with 3D printers which custom print the shoe, based on the unique shopper’s foot, in less than one minute. A machine then packages the shoes and loads them on a waiting Amazon Drone to be delivered to your doorstep this afternoon. (This scenario isn’t nearly as far away as it may seem. Look up Carbon3D). Alas, our cobbler has been completely cut out of the system. There may be other industries for him to jump into for a while as they mature into full automation, but for how long?

supervisor n. 监督者

pursue v. 追求

Mature adj. 成熟的

[23] There is no reason to believe that human labor will somehow prevail as machine labor becomes more efficient, effective, and cheaper. It’s not the machines that are driving the take-over, it’s simply profit maximizing decisions by the company owners. Leaping all of the way into science fiction territory, in full automation the giant processes of segmented tasks can be subsumed under one great master machine. Think of 3D printers, even in their current infant state, and their remarkable ability to take an entire manufacturing process that used to be distributed between countless factories, and combine it into one small box. Such meta-systems are no longer an ecosystem of interdependent tasks, but are instead an aspen grove of various, seemingly separate, but internally singular manifestations of a sole working machine. In one final grand humanless resolution, the processes of production and distribution are once again subsumed by one machine process, scarcely different from the original cobbler in function, but worth millions of cobblers in output.

prevail v. 获胜

territory n. 领域

giant adj. 巨大的

segmented adj. 分割的

manifestation n. 表现

[24] On the scale of only a few hundred years we are completing something of a circle. First, cobblers were the masters of the shoe making process, made shoes for themselves and their neighbors, and arranged their time accordingly. Then machines allowed unskilled, but punctual, factory workers to use machines to make shoes for everyone in mass. Eventually the machines got so good that they could largely make the shoes themselves and only a few humans are needed to stand by as technicians for when something goes wrong or the machines need to be recoded in order to learn new things. Even those technician positions are temporary. Industry is already rife with automated repair systems and machines.

[25] The May 2016 cover of Wired Magazine even announced the end of coding as machines become capable of coding and recoding themselves with ever more sophisticated AI. So all of us cobblers, factory workers, designers, technicians, service providers, and managers get our last few hundred years as necessary tools in the larger processes, perhaps not thinking quite enough of the long term trajectory. The culmination of this process may stretch beyond the lifetimes of many of us, not unlike the potential outcomes of foolishness in our environmental stewardship. For now most of us may find ourselves living out our lives comfortably in the initially increasing, but then decreasing, number of service jobs available. With the rise of better, cheaper, more dependable tools, the global processes can only gainfully employ so many humans, and there’s every reason to expect that need to decrease.

culmination n. 顶点

stewardship n. 治理

[26] This may come across as pessimistic or even fatalistic. I don’t think so. This is not a tale of apocalypse because, unlike much of even the best science fiction, I trust the creativity, ingenuity, and basic survival instincts of the human race to creatively adapt to the new circumstances. There will be change, and pain, as we come to grips with new challenges and devise new solutions. In situations where the change is very rapid the pain will be especially acute, and we may be caught unprepared, but change also brings opportunities.

[27] Remember the watch, the pressure of the minute hand? Remember the master of the schedule? We have spent so much time valuing and finding meaning in our lives through our careers and work. Getting kicked out of the factory may require us to reevaluate what it means to have a “meaningful life.” We may need to be a little less anxious about time, a little less divided between work and life, a little less possessive about what we’ve gotten “by ourselves for ourselves.” Simply put, we’re going to need something to do, something that gives us meaning and purpose. We need to find new ways to be creative, contribute to bringing order out of chaos, provide for our families, and be of service to others. It might not be too early to begin probing what these could be and begin preparing, both legislatively and socially, to help those who are unlucky enough to be employed in the first industries to become fully automated and heave the humans to the curb. Perhaps you can start by hugging a trucker.