巴菲特1962年度信一(五)。2024-08-28

英文早读第43篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

Many times generals represent a form of "coattail riding" where we feel the dominating stockholder group has plans for the conversion of unprofitable or under-utilized assets to a better use. We have done that ourselves in Sanborn and Dempster, but everything else equal we would rather let others do the work. Obviously, not only do the values have to be ample in a case like this, but we also have to be careful whose coat we are holding.
很多时候一般类代表一种“燕尾骑行”的形式,在这里我们感觉主导的股东们已经计划将不盈利的或者未利用地资产转化为更好的用途。在三伯恩和邓普斯特我们自己做了这些,但是任何别的差不多地事我们更希望别人做这个工作。很明显,像这种情况的场合不仅仅价值要充足,同时我们也要当心我们跟在谁的尾巴后面。

The generals tend to behave market-wise very much in sympathy with the Dow. Just because something is cheap dose not mean it is not going to go down. During abrupt downward movements in the market, this segment may very well go down percentage-wise just as much as the Dow. Over a period of years, I believe the generals will outperform the Dow, and during sharply advancing years like 1961. This is the section of our portfolio that turns in the best results. It is, of course, also the most vulnerable in a declining market, and in 1962, not only did we not make any money out of our general category, but I am even doubtful if it did better than the Dow.
一般类倾向于和道琼斯指数同频且非常市场敏感。仅仅因为某些东西便宜并不意味着他不会继续下跌。在市场陡然下跌时,这一部分或许也下跌百分比和道琼斯指数一样多。经过一些年,我相信一般类将会比道琼斯指数表现出色,像在1961年这种大幅上涨的年份。这是我们的投资组合中这一部分表现最好的结果。当然,在下降的市场也最脆弱,在1962年,不仅我们没有通过一般类赚到钱,同时我甚至怀疑他是否比道琼斯指数做的更好。

Our second category consists of "work outs". These are securities whose financial results depend on corporate action rather than supply and demand factors created by buyers and sellers of securities. In other words, they are securities with a timetable where we can predict, within reasonable error limits, when we will get how much and what might upset the applecart. Corporate events such as mergers, liquidations, recorganizations, spin-offs, etc., I lead to work-outs. An important source in recent years has been sell-outs by oil producers to major integrated oil companies.
我们第二类范畴由“套利类”组成。这些股票的财务结果取决于公司行动而不是股票买卖双方的供需因素。话句话说,他们是这些有一个时间表我们可以预测,在合理的错误限制内,何时我们赚多少以及什么可能会打乱进程的股票。我主导套利类的公司行动类似合并,清算,重组,拆分,等等。最近这些年一个重要的来源是原油生产商出售给大的合成油公司。

This category will produce reasonably stable earnings from year to year, to a large extent irrespective of the course of the Dow. Obviously, if we operate throughout a year with a large portion of our portfolio in work-outs, we will look extremely good if it turns out to be a declining year for the Dow, or quite bad if it is a strongly advancing year.
这一范畴将会年复一年产生合理的稳定利润,在很大程度上不受道琼斯指数影响。很明显,如果我们由很大比例的投资组合在套利类的情况运作一整年,我们将会看起来非常好如果对于道琼斯指数是下降年,或者相当糟糕如果是一个强力上涨年。

We were fortunate in that we had a good portion of our portfolio in work outs in 1962. As I have said before, this was not due to any notion on my part as to what the market would do, but rather because I could get more of what I wanted in this category than in the generals. This same concentration in work-outs hurt our performance during the market advance in the second half of the year.
很幸运在1962年我们的投资组合有一个不错的比例在套利类中。像我之前说过的,这不是因为我有任何市场将会如何的观念,仅仅是因为我可以在套利类中比一般类中得到比我想要的更多。同样集中在套利类在下半年度的市场表现中损害了我们的成绩。

Over the years, work-outs have provided our second largest category. At any given time, we may be in five to ten of these; some just beginning and others in the late stage of their development. I believe in using borrowed money to offset a portion of our work-out portfolio, since there is a high degree of safety in this category in terms of both eventual results and intermediate market behavior. For instance, you will note when you receive our audit report, that we paid 75,000 of interest to banks and brokers during the year. Since our borrowing was at approximately 5%, this means we had an average of 1,500,000 borrowed from such sources. Since 1962 was a down year in the market, you might think that such borrowing would hurt results. However, all of our loans were to offset work-outs, and this category turned in a good profit for the year. Results, excluding the benefits derived from the use of borrowed money, usually fall in the 10% to 20% per annum range. My self-imposed standard limit regarding borrowing is 25% of partnership net worth, although something extraordinary could result in modifying this for a limited period of time.
经过这些年,套利类已经是我们第二大范畴了。在任何时间,我们或许有5到10家这些公司;有些刚刚开始,另一些处于发展的末期。我相信使用借款可以补偿我们在套利类中的比例,因为在这一类中有很高的安全区,无论是最终的结果还是中间的市场表现。例如,当你收到我们的审计报告时你会注意到,我们在这一年给银行和经纪人支付了7.5万美金的利息。由于我们的借款利率大约在5%,这意味着我们从这些地方获得大约150万美金的借款。因为1962年市场是下跌的,你或许会想这些借款会损害结果。然而,我们所有的贷款都是补偿套利类的,这一类在这年有很好的收益。在除去由于使用借款带来的收益后,结果通常是每年10%到20%。我自己考虑到借款要求的上限是合伙基金净资产的25%,尽管有些不同寻常的事可能导致我们在有限的时间段内修正这个标准。

You will note on our yearend balance sheet (part of the audit you will receive) securities sold short totaling some 340,000. Most of this occurred in conjunction with a work-out entered into late in the year. In this case, we had very little competition for a period of time and were able to create a 10% or better profit (gross, not annualized) for a few months tie-up of money. The short sales eliminated the general market risk.
你会注意到在年末的资产负债表中(你会收到部分审计资料)短期出售股票达34万美金。大部分是因为一个套利类股票在这一年进入末尾。在这种情况下,我们会在一段时间只有很小的竞争力而且我们能够创造10%或者更多的收益(总收益,不是年度)仅用几个月的资金。这些短期出售消除了一般市场的风险。

45.coattail:燕尾服;衣尾效应
46.dominating:个性强势的;左右他人的;支配;控制
47.utilized:利用;应用;被利用的
48.ample:足够的;充足的;丰满的;硕大的
49.sympathy:同情;支持;赞同;志同道合的;意气相投
50.vulnerable:脆弱的
51.irrespective:不考虑的;不问的;不顾的;不受……影响的
52.notion:概念;观念;理念;信念
53.broker:经纪人;掮客;安排;协商
54.extraordinary:异乎寻常的;非凡的;特别的;临时的
55.totaling:总共;合计
56.eliminate:消除;排除;消灭;清除

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