It will set a precedent that could have ramifications beyond Europe’s borders
POLAND represents a dilemma for the European Union (EU). Since coming to power in October 2015, the right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS in Polish) has been weakening the country’s democratic checks and balances. After two years of finger-wagging, the bosses in Brussels appear to have lost patience. Having determined that the rule of law in Poland is under threat, in December EU officials triggered Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, which refers to “a clear risk of a serious breach” of EU values. Poland has three months to address the concerns. If it does not, it could ultimately lose its EU voting rights. Yet that is not all that is at stake. As Brussels flexes its muscles, the way it deals with Poland will set a precedent that could have ramifications even beyond the EU’s borders.
The grounds for concern are clear. PiS was quick to overhaul the constitutional tribunal, stacking it with cronies, and has also replaced the heads of the public radio and television broadcasters. More recently, it has targeted judges, whom it regards as a spoilt “caste”. Two laws adopted in December (and prompting the triggering of Article 7) strengthen PiS’s grip on the National Judiciary Council, which appoints judges, and the Supreme Court, which rules on the validity of elections, among its other responsibilities. Of the Supreme Court’s 80-odd judges, 40% will be forced to retire on the grounds of old age. Meanwhile, thanks in part to generous welfare policies, the party has kept its lead in the polls, far ahead of the centrist opposition. This has helped it shrug off domestic and international criticism.
Since his appointment as prime minister last month, Mateusz Morawiecki, a former banker, has sought to defuse tensions. Last week, he sacked the more hard-line PiS ministers who had been damaging the government’s image abroad. He also made Poland’s case to Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, over a dinner. If the EU deems unsatisfactory Poland’s efforts to address its worries (ie, if the judiciary laws are not repealed or at least modified), its member states will vote on whether they agree. If four-fifths do, which is far from certain, then another vote would be held on the punishment, potentially suspending Poland’s voting rights. This would require unanimous support from member states, and is therefore highly unlikely. PiS is counting on Viktor Orban, Hungary’s equally illiberal prime minister, to block any such motion.
Poles can be described as broadly pro-European. But some, with PiS encouragement, have come to resent what they see as foreign interference in their affairs. This has left EU officials wary of a backlash. The onus is now on the union’s other members. France and Germany have indicated that they will side with whatever judgment is made in Brussels. Other countries are more reluctant to condemn Poland. Bulgaria, for one, hopes to avoid any vote till the end of its stint in the EU’s rotating presidency, which ends in mid-2018. A vote on sanctions against Poland would give the EU “sleepless nights”, points out Boyko Borisov, the Bulgarian prime minister. With PiS refusing to back down and the EU focused on Brexit, the dispute could drag on. Yet if the EU fails to defend democracy among its own members, its credibility will suffer. Autocrats in Minsk, Moscow, Ankara and beyond will take note.
