Top Ecommerce Trends to inform your 2017 marketing strategy

These massive trends will change Ecommerce marketing this year

We are now well into 2017. If you are to develop a winning ecommerce marketing strategy you'll need to start planning now. Ecommerce continues to grow rapidly, but with the huge market acting as a magnet to brands large and small, competition will ramp up faster than the total growth of the market. This means customers will be harder to win, easier to lose and fussier on price and user experience.

如果你想研究一套成功的网购营销策略，2017年开初你就该开始计划了。虽然网购持续快速增长，但是伴随的市场也像磁铁一般吸引着大大小小的品牌涌入，随之而来的竞争也就越来越激烈。这也意味着消费者越来越难迎合，更容易失去，对价格和使用体验更加挑剔。

To avoid falling behind the ever more fierce competition, you will need to both be aware of and benefit from the latest trends in ecommerce. These megatrends are global, have huge implications, and are not going to go away anytime soon. Ecommerce marketers will have to integrate them into their planning to be successful in 2017. And if any of you think you can get away without creating a detailed plan - remember that 77% of marketing professionals think a planned approach focusing on analytics and continues optimisation is the most effect way of managing digital marketing, whilst only 14% thought a relatively unplanned, reactive approach was best.

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So make sure to consider these enormously important trends when creating your marketing strategy for 2017.

Trend 1. eCommerce Growth Shifts to Asia 趋势1网购增长向亚洲偏移

In the early days of eCommerce it was the US that was the major driver of eCommerce growth. eCommerce has since become a global phenomenon, but the US has still been the most important market and key to driving growth. The chart below shows how consistent annual growth rates of around 10% have driven an explosion in US eCommerce sales over the past fifteen years.

开初的时候，美国市场是网购增长的主要市场，虽然现在网购已经成为了全球的趋势，但是美国依然是增长的主要市场和关键。下图就是美国在过去的15年里持续的网购增长，并且保持将近有10%的增长。

Although growth rates still remain strong, the US market isn't all that far off saturation point, so we can expect sales starting to plateau or the growth rates to at least slow slightly. This contrasts with Asian markets, especially China, where eCommerce sales are expected to continue their huge growth. The chart below showing the predictions of eCommerce sales growth shows China driving the overall growth, accounting for a huge chunk of global eCommerce sales. China's growth is so rapid that total eCommerce sales there are expected to double between now and 2019, adding $1 trillion dollars worth of additional sales in just three years!

尽管增长非常强劲，但是美国市场似乎也将近接近平静，在之后的几年，预估增长的曲线将会比较平缓或者将会放缓。与美国相反的则是中国，在预期中依然会保持较快的增长。下图是中国整体的网购增长。中国的增长如此迅速带动了整体网购的增长，并且在现在到2019年，预估增长将会范围，三年里将会增加额外的销售额达到1万亿。

Key Takeaway:

The huge shift in eCommerce growth towards Asia has massive ramifications for eCommerce brands. To take advantage of the trends they'll need to go international with their eCommerce- something easier said than done. The beauty of eCommerce is you don't necessarily need any physical infrastructure to start selling to a new country. With shipping rates cheap, international delivery becoming common and websites making borders increasingly irrelevant, it's not as hard as it once was to break into new countries and markets. However, that should not invite complacency. Well translated websites, strategies in tune with local expectations and the use of no VAT charges to subsidise delivery costs are all of critical importance.

网购增长转移到亚洲的趋势同时带来了网购品牌的多样性。要想抓住网购增长的趋势，向全球化发展，首先就得有相应的网购平台，或者是展示网站。网购的魅力就是你不需要任何实际的基础设施来实现在另外一个国家进行销售。特别是现在的运费越来越便宜，国际航运便利，网站让一些的界限变得越来越模糊，在过去，打破新国家和市场的隔阂是非常不容易的。尽管如此，却依然不能有任何的懈怠，翻译好的网站，符合本地需求的经营策略，免运费等成本都是非常重要的环节。

Trend 2. Mobile users continue to increase- but still aren't converting. Or are they? 趋势2. 无线端用户不断增长但是却转化不高，是这样吗？

You don't need me to tell you about the shift to mobile over the past five years. Mobile devices now make up over half of all web traffic and continue to grow in importance. This won't come as a surprise to anyone marketer that hasn't been in a coma since 2010.

用户往无线端转移在过去五年尤其明显，这是不言而喻的。无线端现在的流量已经超过网页端流量的一半，并且还在不断持续增长。

But it may surprise you that a very big chunk of customers still aren't happy with purchasing on a mobile device. Over half prefer purchasing on a PC, and many have privacy and security worries.

在2010年无线端流量增长并不是什么新鲜事，但是他们不喜欢用手机购物，这点可能你会感到惊讶。消费者因为担心隐私和信息安全问题依然有过半人选择用PC端购物。

New researchfrom the 2nd half of 2016 confirms this picture. 80 million website sessions and data related to €230 million worth of online revenue were analysed by Wolfgang digital. They found that although mobile (phone and tablet) accounted for 59% of all sessions by device on eCommerce sites, these mobile browsers made up just 38% of revenue. Desktop was still dominating for conversion even though mobile browsing is the norm for research. The distinction was even bigger when it comes to high-cost purchases such as holidays. For online travel businesses,  desktop made up just 41% of web traffic, but dominated sales, accounting for 67% of revenue.

下图是2016年第二季度的新研究调查数据。依据Wolfgang 数据的统计，8千万的网站数据汇聚了将近2千3百万的网站收入。尽管他们也发现网购网站流量占据全网的59%，营收却只是占到38%。台式电脑依然占据着转化的主导地位，虽然手机端浏览已经常态化。节假日的时候，通过台式电脑进行高单价商品的购物的偏好更为明显。

So what should eCommerce marketers make of the failure of mobile browser to convert? Simple: It's the omnichannel stupid. Mobile users are on the site to consider purchasing and make up their minds as to what products they want. As a result they are extremely important and should never be ignored. The fact they then go to desktop to make the purchase does not mean you can neglect the mobile experience. Although Smartphones have the lowest conversion rate of any device, Wolfgang's correlation study found strong correlations between high percentages of mobile traffic and high overall website conversion rates. This seems like a contradiction in terms, but it is not. It's caused by people researching on Smartphones, making the key decisions related to the purchase, and then actually buying on a desktop later.

究竟是什么原因导致网购营销者无法成功让消费者在无线端转化？很简单，多种渠道。无线端用户在手机上考虑需要买什么。这个过程是非常重要并且不应该被忽略的。事实上最后他们回到网页版购物，但是你也不能忽略他们之前的浏览行为。特别是在那么多种设备上，智能手机的转化率是最低的。Wolfgang的研究表明大比率的无线端流量跟高转化的Web版转化率是有联系的。在一定程度上，这个联系是反方向的，因为人们一般用智能手机浏览做购买决策，最后却回到台式电脑进行购物。

Key Takeaways:

Marketers need to stop thinking of 'mobile users' and 'desktop users' as different people. Because they're not. Theaverage household has 7.4 internet connected devices. A 'mobile user' one minute is a 'desktop user' the next. The distinction is entirely artificial.  A focus on brilliant mobile UX may help a few more mobile customers to convert without switching to desktop, but for higher value items the focus should be providing a seamless experience across devices so users can browse on mobile and convert on desktop.

营销者不能将手机端用户和网页版用户看作为不同的群体。事实上他们是一样的。每个家庭平均都有7.4台设备链接到无线网络。这一秒他可能是手机用户，下一秒可能就是台式电脑用户。仅仅是通过使用设备来界定用户性质是非常武断的。关注手机端的UX设计或许能让手机用户转化时直接通过手机而不是电脑，但是对于高单价的商品而言，还是应该关注如何提供无缝连接，让手机端的浏览顺利过渡到台式电脑的转化。

Trend 3. eCommerce competition heats up 趋势3 网购平台竞争越趋激烈

2017 will be the year eCommerce competition gets racked up by another notch. New start-ups are entering the market and big established bricks and mortar brands are increasingly pushing to achieve significant chunks of the eCommerce market as consumers increasingly move online. As competition builds, we're witnessing an explosion in mar-tech tools designed to help eCommerce marketers, as Scott Brinker's 2016 Martech graphic clearly shows.

2017年将会是网购平台竞争达到一个新的程度。许多创业网购平台进军市场，同时有背景实力宏厚的实体店也开始进军网购领域，随着越来越多消费者转移到网购上。随着网购平台的竞争爆发，我们发现相应的应用软件，检测工具也就越来越多，看下图就知道。

Whilst more tools are often helpful, growing competition will become a real headache for eCommerce marketers in 2017. AsMark Schaeferhas pointed out, content shock presents a real problem for anyone using content marketing, which includes a huge number of eCommerce companies.Whilst more tools are often helpful, growing competition will become a real headache for eCommerce marketers in 2017. AsMark Schaeferhas pointed out, content shock presents a real problem for anyone using content marketing, which includes a huge number of eCommerce companies.

Key takeaways:

Most of the trends presented in this article are great news for eCommerce marketers, but growing competition and content shock is the exception. Competition for eyeballs will increasingly heat up, to the point where making a similar effort to 2016 will deliver far less gains in 2017. Good eCommerce marketers will need to produce exceptional content to manage to stand out in 2017. If they cannot do this, then focusing on tactics other than content marketing may be the best bet.

Trend 4. Subscription-based business models are the future

SaaS businesses have pioneered the subscription-based business model for software and show how effective it can be for both businesses and consumers. The flexibility it affords consumers and the recurring revenue it allows businesses is a massive win-win for both parties. That's what has driven it's massive growth over the past ten years, which is predicted to continue at a healthy rate as we head towards 2020.

It's not just Software as a Service revenue that has exploded over recent years. Platform as a service is now one of the hottest trends in business. Just look at the incredible success of Platform as a Service businesses like Uber, Spotify and AirBnB.

近几年，通过提供服务建立起来的平台也是炽手可热的生意，看那些因为服务兴起的平台，例如优步，Spotify和AirBnB，就是最好的例子。

深绿色：初始订阅数 浅绿色：月活跃用户数

But subscription-based business models don't have to be limited to software. Recent years have seen the creation of many incredibly successful eCommerce businesses providing a physical product on a subscription basis rather than for a single fee for purchase. Founded just five years ago in 2011, the dollar shave club, a prime example of a subscription-based eCommerce site, is now worth an incredible $615 Million dollars! That's right. From nothing to $615 million dollars in five years. Just selling razors.

订阅性经济模式并不仅限于应用在互联网领域。近几年也有网购平台将这个模式成功运用在实际商品的订阅下，而不仅仅是单次的购买完成。成立于2011年的，一元剃刀俱乐部，仅仅用了五年就成功成为行业领先的榜样，作为订阅模式的网购平台，目前市值达615万美金，没做，仅仅是五年就完成了从0到615万美金，只是卖剃刀。

All kinds of industries are ripe for disruption by successful subscription based eCommerce sites. And looking at economy-wide trends, it's clear this trend is set to continue.

Millenials are increasingly keen to spread costs via subscriptions rather than make single big ticket purchase. Those in their twenties today have average incomes higher than those in their twenties did two decades ago, and havedisposable incomes a third higherthan the same age cohort did twenty years ago. But their wealth (the sum of their assets) is far lower than that of other demographics, and lower than their parent's wealth when they were in their twenties. Those between 20 and thirty are far less likely to own their own home or a car when compared to previous generations.

千禧年成长的一代更愿意花钱在订阅模式下的经济体，对比起单次高单价的模式。同样是20多岁，今天的这一代，比过去20年的那一带人，拥有更多的可支配金钱。但是他们的财务总量是相对来说比较大幅度减少的，跟他们父母20多岁的时候比起来。20到30岁的这群人，比起之前的人而言，更少会拥有自己的房子和车子。

Key takeaway:

If possible, consider selling your products via a subscription model. Anything that is used consumed regularly could successfully be sold via a subscription model, and in many cases already is. Examples include Beer, 'Meatpacks', 'Vegpacks', Meal kits, beauty products and snack boxes.

如果可以，通过订阅体系来对商品进行销售。所有日常规律消耗的东西都是可以成功通过订阅模式进行售卖。例如啤酒一般都跟肉类制品，蔬菜制品，肉类套餐，零食礼盒打包销售。

The high disposable incomes of today's millennials means plenty of cash for subscriptions, but their low wealth means there is never much in the bank for big one-off purchases. There really has never been a better time to sell your product via a subscription model.

千禧年一代的可运用现金增加意味着大量现钱会涌入订阅式销售，但是财富总量的减少也意味着他们银行里的钱相对较少，高单价的商品购买也较少。

Trend 5. The Growth of Artifical Intelligence for Smart Prediction 趋势5 人工智能在智能手机上预测快速成熟

This trend is much trickier to predict because it is genuinely new, rather than a continuation of trends which have been building for several years.

The increasing data available to marketers has massively increased their ability to target customers over the past few years, but increased ability doesn't instantly translate into increased effectiveness. Sometimes marketers can get too caught up in marketing speak and buzzwords and patting each other on the back, and fail to see what the consumer actually sees. What all this 'big data' and 'hyper-targeting' usually adds up to when I think about what I actually experience as a customer (rather than as a marketer) is getting served ads for products I've already bought. Generally, if I buy something online I'll get served re-marketing ads advertising the damn thing for a good few weeks afterwards. Cracking targeting - they got me stop on, I really did want that book of Nigella Lawson recipes. Thing is, I actually bought the thing, so it's actually the worst targeting in the world - I've never been less likely to buy it!

预测数据一般都是根据过往记录进行的，但是现在人工智能所能做到的预测就不一样，不一定是对过去的数据进行延续的判断，有可能是全新的成果。

现在的营销人员获取的数据越来越丰富，但是这并没有提高他们利用数据的效率。往往，他们都只是过度营销，大量的广告词反复出现，却忽略消费者真正看到的是什么。大数据和给消费者贴标签，只是让消费者反复看到自己已经买了的东西。从一个消费者的角度而言，买过的东西重复看到广告，这个是很不好的体验，会让人有再也不想买这样东西的感觉。这是最错误的贴标签做法。

So this targeting is precise and informed by data. But it's still stupid. What it needs to be is smart. That's the missing piece of the puzzle. That's where Artifical Intelligence comes in.

虽然目前的人群定位非常准全信息全面，但是却依然是不灵活的。需要更加聪明的来使用这些数据。就像是拼拼图过程不断寻找差着的那一片。这也是人工智能需要发展的方向。

Funding for artificial intelligence start-ups has increased massively in the past three years. Data for Q1 2016 also shows the number of deals hit a quarterly record, and looks set for a considerable increase on the 2016 figure.

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My bet is the venture capitalists are onto something, and 2017 will be the year where AI tech really comes into its own. By combining genuine intelligence with the piles of data now available thanks to analytics and tracking software, ad targeting will be able to get a whole lot smarter. Moving beyond a simple 'customers that bought X also bought.. A B C' to a system which learns what makes each individual marketed to tick, and tailor messaging to exactly match what works on them.

2017年AI技术将会得到大力的发展。得益于对数据的追踪和分析的软件系统，结合人工智能，人群定义标签将会做得更加聪明。

Marketers, especially those in larger organisations, should be looking at how AI tech can help with their ad targeting and personalisation strategy. With IBM letting companies utilise it's famous Jeopardy-winning Watson AI system, and many other providers entering the market, 2017 will be the year digital ad-targeting gets smart.

Trend 6. Chatbots 趋势6 聊天机器人

Chatbots are in many ways the most important breakthrough marketing technology of 2016- and are set to really come into their own next year. That’s not to say their necessarily the most important marketing tech trend of all, but many of the important trends like big data, VR, AI and the internet of things have been know of for a few years now. Chatbots have been around since before 2016 as well, but it’s only this year that they’ve exploded in popularity and come to the attention of marketers.

在2016年聊天机器人取得了很大的突破，并且在未来一年也会有更多独立的发展。并不是说，这是营销科技中最重要的一个，如其他趋势，大数据，VR，AI等，但是聊天机器人也越来越重要并且获得市场的重视。

The below chart from Google Trends shows the explosion in search interest in ‘chatbots’ in April of this year, and a general trend towards their greater interest over the course of 2016.

关于聊天机器人的搜索热度

The strict definition of at bot is any software that automates repetitive tasks over the internet, but that is so broad it includes all kinds of applications that won't concern marketers. The original bots were not tools for marketers, but rather things that got on their nerves. Think spamming Twitter accounts not run by humans, or bots browsing pages to inflate page views or ad impressions and thus scam advertisers.

The good news is the new wave of bots are built to help marketers, not annoy or mislead them. Bots can act like a human helper, but without the cost of hiring the human.  This opens up a whole load of opportunities. For example, a bot on a travel site could ask you about your preferences, provide you with some personalised hotel options, compare prices and then book the one you liked best for you.

Don’t invest in building Chatbots just because they are the latest marketing gimmick. Put yourself in the shoes of the customer and conduct market research to establish what pain points customers have in terms of customer service or friction along the user journey. If a Chatbot could be helpful in alleviating some of that friction, then you know it is worth investing in.

Chatbots are currently an emerging technology and as such many can only perform a few rudimentary tasks. But their capability is growing quickly. In September 2016 Facebook added in-app purchase functionality to its messenger platform to allow bots to complete purchases for users entirely within the platform. Soon this kind of functionality will become the norm rather than new and experimental. eCommerce businesses will have to get used to utilising chatbots to smooth customer journeys, or else see their customers move elsewhere.

自动回复，相当于聊天机器人，通过特定算法设置的，能有效缓解客服的压力，对网购平台有非常大的帮助。

Trend 7. Shoppable Personalised Video 趋势7 个性化购物定制视频

Shoppable video isn't brand new. It was launched by YouTube in late 2015 and has been gathering momentum throughout 2016. However, in its current form it isn't actually all that impressive (Sorry YouTube, but it just isn't). Simple little cards that pop up to let you buy items in a video isn't exactly mind blowing tech. Video creators have been able to overlay links on videos for years. However, my bold prediction if 2017 is that this is going to change. Either YouTube or another provider will merge the technology that can create programmatically generated personalised video, and the tech needed for shoppable video. We've seen an explosion in the use of programmatically served video in the past few years, and by combining this trend with new tech like shoppable video and personalised video, we will see a massive change in how eCommerce marketers sell via video.

购物视频并不是全新的。在2015年末，就已经在油管上进行发布，并且在2016年达到一定用户的积累。但是，并没有造成很大的轰动。视频中弹出的卡片让你能购买相应展示得商品，这并不是特别吸引人的技术。过去的一年里，视频开发者都可以直接在视频中附带点击链接。尽管如此我还是大胆的预测，在2017年，将会有很大的变化，

This merged offering will be far superior in terms of its usefulness to eCommerce marketers. By programmatically placing products in a video based on known customer preferences, and then making it shoppable, eCommerce advertisers will be able use it to convert customers like never before. I don't have a graph to back up this trend because it doesn't exist yet- but it's such an obvious next step in where video technology is going is only a matter of time before it is realised. And once it is, it'll be the hot new eCommerce ad format- don't say I didn't warn you!

Conclusion

eCommerce is a rapidly growing field which has to respond quickly to the latest trends. The low barriers to entry and the fact consumers can switch providers effortlessly means those that fall behind when it comes to customer experience and pricing strategy quickly loose out. Those in charge of developing eCommerce marketing strategy in 2017 should thus pay close attention to these 7 major trends.