Listening: Aging Population
The world’s population is growing at a rate of a little more than 1% per year.
However, not all segments of the population are growing at the same rate.
This graph shows that the rates of growth have 3 different groups, children, adults and the elderly.
As you can see, while the population of children is fairly constant, the elderly population is increasing at the fastest rate.
This is due to very low birth rates in the developed country and birthrate declines in most developing countries.
As a result of these trends, the world’s population is aging.
Between 2015 and 2050, the percentage of the world’s population over 60 is expected to nearly double.
In 2015, there were 900 million people over 60 and in 2050, the number should be around 2 billion.
Aging populations are becoming a huge problem in many countries, especially in developing counties.
It used to be that many elderly people lived with their family and helped take care of the next generation.
They had a place to stay and people who help take care of them when they needed assistance.
Now, however, many elderly people, or senior citizens, are left on their own.
This is partly the result of people having fewer children, and also because of the massive urbanization.
Young and middle-aged audits have left the rural area for economic opportunities only available in large urban centers.
As a result, there is no one to care for the elderly who were left behind to live on their own.
This is especially true in developing countries.
With an aging population, health problem becomes a growing concern.
Some of the leading conditions that accompany aging include vision problems, hearing loss, diabetes and dementias such as Alzheimer's disease.
These problems can lead to disabilities that make it difficult to live without assistance.
With diseases such as Alzheimer's, people lose their memory and are unable to recognize their own children.
Worldwide, more than 46% of people aged 60 and over have disabilities.
Giving meals and medical care, for example, becomes both expensive and difficult.
As a result, the cost of providing services to the sick and disabled can become a huge problem.
Listening: Dependency Ratio
In economics, the dependency ratio shows the relationship between the number of people not in the labor force and those in the labor force.
Those not in the labor force are the dependent part of the population.
Those in the labor force are the productive part of the population.
A high dependency ratio means that there are fewer working people to support health, social security and education services, which are used by the dependent sectors of a population.
This number is calculated by adding together the total number of young and old people, and dividing that number by the number of working age people.
Sometimes the dependency ratio is presented in two parts.
One part focuses on the ratio between children and the working age population.
This is the dependency ratio for the young.
The other is the ratio between the elderly and the working age population, which is the dependency ratio for the old.
Here are some dependency ratios for the old in 5 countries, China, India, Japan, the US and the UK.
It shows the ratios at 3 different points of time, 2000, 2015 and 2050.
Note that the greatest percentage change from 2015 to 2050 is for China.
The dependency ratio nearly triples from 13.1 to 39.
The other counties show gains, but as a percentage increase, they are less.
In Japan, the ratio increases from 43.6 to 71.8 which is less than double.
The life expectancy for Japan in 2050 is predicted to be 93, which is the highest of these countries.
A high life expectancy obviously increases the dependency ratio.
And note that the dependency ratio ignores the fact that those counted in elderly segment of the population are not necessarily depended.
An increasing proportion of them are working, and many of those in the working age segment may not be working.
So this way of calculating the dependency ratio in the country can be misleading.
By pointing this out, we can see the danger of using of such number to make policy without understanding how they are calculated.
In the end, details are important.
Dialogue: John's Resignation
So what is it that you wanted to see me about, John?
I thought it would be good for us to have a heart-to-heart conversation.
You're unhappy with how things are going, right?
Yes, I am. But I don't want others in the company to know.
I thought we should meet outside.
Ok, so what are you thinking?
To be perfectly frank, I’ve decided that it doesn’t make sense for me to stay with the company.
You are the CEO, but I don’t agree with how you’re handling things.
I can no longer support you.
Hmm, OK, I have suspected that for quite a while.
I’m still happy to support the company if I can, of course, but I’d like to work elsewhere.
There's a start-up that has contacted me, and I’m planning to join them as soon as I can.
Are you gentlemen really to order?
No, not yet.
Could you come back in a few minutes?
Certainly, sir.
Well, we are going to miss you.
There's nothing I can say that would change your mind?
No, it’s too late for that.
I no longer have confidence in your decisions.
Your latest business plan, for example, makes no sense at all.
It makes us weaker in the area where we are strong, and it takes us in some new areas where we can’t compete.
Well, that’s where we disagree.
So, if that’s the way you feel about it, I agree that it’s best that you work somewhere else.
Still, I hope we can count on you when we need you for something.
Sure, keep me informed and let me know if and when I can be useful.
I will.
So how do you propose that we should communicate this to the company?
I will write up something and you can review it.
I’ll make it sound as positive as possible.
Ok, thanks.
I’m sure it will come as a shock to many.
Things are already difficult enough.
I know and maybe I’m wrong.
Maybe your plan will work.
If so, I will be the first to congratulate you.
Are you ready to order?
Sure, though I don’t feel like eating much.
Waiter.
Reading: Global Life Expectancy
People today are living longer than at any point in human history. Virtually every country enjoys a higher life expectancy than it did in the 19th century. In 1870, the average person could expect to live for 30 years. By 2015 that number had increased to 71, more than doubling.
The west was the first region to see an increase in life expectancy. Scientific discoveries led to a growing awareness of germs and disease. New medicines and treatments were developed, and people adopted more hygienic lifestyles. Public health measures were a major factor. During the 20th century, the average lifespan in the United States increased by more than 30 years, if which 25 years can be attributed to advances in public health.
Between 1900 and 1950, Europe’s life expectancy grew from 43 years to 65 years. However, this did not reflect the experience of the rest of the world, which largely remained impoverished and underdeveloped. In 1950, Asia’s average life expectancy was 42 and the Africa’s was 36. In the following decades, living conditions in both continents improved, along with life expectancy. As Asian economies grew, people had better access to health services and greater quantities of food. In Africa however, several countries did not see significant economic growth, but still enjoyed a growing life expectancy. This was due to better access to medicines and vaccines. As of 2015, the life expectancies of Asia and Africa were about 72 and 60 years respectively.
In all countries, some facts are universal, including higher mortality rates associated with childhood. Therefore, life expectancy increases with age. Economics condition also affect life expectancy. For example, in the UK, life expectancy among the wealthiest is several years higher than among the poorest. This may reflect factors such as diet and lifestyle, as well as access to medical care.
And finally, women enjoy an advantage over men. Females have a higher survival rate from birth to old age. Of individuals aged 110, 90% are women. In fact, for almost all animal species except birds, females have higher survival rates than males.
Reading: Virtual Heaven
If you could live forever, would you want to? The challenge of keeping your body alive seems impossible, but some scientists are working on an alternative. They want to create a digital copy of your “self” and keep that copy “alive” long after your physical body has stopped functioning.
In effect, their plan is to clone a person electronically. Unlike ordinary physical clones –which have identical features as their parents, but which are independent organisms, each with a different conscious self – your electronic clone would believe itself to be you. One plan relies on the development of nanotechnology. Ray Kurzweil, a leading futurist, predicts that within two or three decades we will have tiny transmitters that can be injected into the brain. once there they would line up alongside neurons and monitor the details of the brain’s activity. They would then be able to transmit that information to receivers inside a special helmet, allowing us to map the brain.
As a further step, Kurzweil foresees using these tiny transmitters to connect you to a world of virtual reality. With the transmitters in place, you could think your way onto the internet. Instead of seeing pictures on a screen, you would see them in your mind. Rather than send emails to your friends, you could meet them on some virtual tropical beach and exchange messages in “virtual person”.
For a futurist like Ray, this would be heaven, a virtual heaven. Once you upload the brain onto the internet and log on to that virtual world, your body can be left to decompose while your virtual self can play games for as long as you wish.
However, there is still a problem. To exist on the net, your virtual self will have to reside on the computer of a web-hosting company. These companies want to be paid real money, or they will delete your “self” and sell the space to someone else. With your body long gone how you pay?
