Poor Charlie's Almanack(Talk 2 )

【读书三问】

阅读内容: Poor Charlie's Almanack-----Talk Two 

A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom as It Relates to Investment Management and Business

这部分内容共有55页,我差不多用两天的空余时间才读完,任务如山倒,读完如抽丝~怎一个累字了得!不过好在是抱着浓厚的兴趣去投入其中的,所以by and large,累并快乐着~

【1.印象最深刻的部分】内容中你觉得印象最深刻的部分是什么?

And these advantages of scale are so great, for example, that when Jack Welch came into General Electric, he just said, "To hell with it. We're either going to be #l or #2 in every field we're in or we're going to be out. I don't care how many people I have to fire and what I have to sell. We're going to be #1 or #2 or out."

我们有句俗语也是差不多这个思想:宁做鸡头不做凤尾,联想到马太效应、二八原则,越来越感到这个世界社会的不平等会更加剧烈,拥有强者思维的人,会成为金字塔的顶层,从而占据拥有更多的资源。李笑来也说他从来都知道做第一的好处,甚至最终做到“远超第二的第一”。

【2.与现实的联系】这本书与现实之间有哪些联系?

经济学中的原理和工具,可以说博大精深。经济学不是阳春白雪,概念公式,纸上谈兵,而是能够实实在在帮助我们做决定和解释的工具。试着用经济学的眼睛去看待那些生活和工作上的是是非非,用经济学的思维武装自己,只有这样,经济学才对我们有意义。

【3.行动和改变】你可以做出哪些行动来改变你的现实生活?

相比智商和情商,财商教育也是非常重要和必要的。学会做金钱的主人而不是做金钱的奴隶,树立正确的消费和金钱观念。若不懂得理财,我们只能成为赚钱的机器,不懂得利用资本为我们钱生钱,我们就一刻也不能停止工作,就像“穷爸爸”那样;如果我们懂得钱生钱的道理,买入会下蛋的“金鹅”,即使不工作也会有源源不断的收入。

Summary

This talk was given on April 14, 1994 to Professor Guilford Babcock's business class at the University of Southern California. 

Charlie ranges from education systems to psychology to the importance of possessing both common and uncommon sense. Dissecting business management, he brilliantly describes psychological impacts that can damage or benefit a firm. He also presents an outstanding set of principles for investment, business management, and most importantly from Charlie's perspective-decision making in everyday life.

Talk Two 内容大致可分为两大部分:

Worldly wisdom

Investment management and business 

我把第一部分内容定义为鸡汤,把第二部分内容定义为干货,双剑合璧天下无敌啊~

What is elementary, worldly wisdom?

1. The fundamental truth--->multiple models--->mathematics--->(重点讲了数学的重要性,学好数理化 走遍天下都不怕,此话不假)

(1) the elementary math of permutations and combinations

(2) decision tree theory

(3) accounting

2. The most reliable models---> 

(1) from hard science and engineering

(2) from biology/physiology

(3) from psychology--->two-track analysis (重点讲了心理、大脑思维等对投资行为的影响和决策等关系)

3. another somewhat less reliable form of human wisdom----> microeconomics(微观经济学这个概念我挺有兴趣的,以后有时间要多读这类的书)

(1) advantages of scale (这部分篇幅好长,我也没怎么认真看,不多说了)

(1) a circle of competence (能力圈,这个词前段时间在若干公众号文章频频看到,相必最早的出处就是在这里吧)

common stock picking

1, "What is the nature of the stock market?"

As I always say, the iron rule of life is that only twenty percent of the people can be in the top fifth. That's just the way it is. So the answer is that it's partly efficient and partly inefficient.

2, How do you get to be one of those who is a winner- in a relative sense-instead of a loser?

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know evervthing about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it- who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet- that they can occasionally find one .

And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

The way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights.

3, What style should the investor use as a picker of common stocks in order to try to beat the market- in other words, to get an above average long-term result?

(1) A standard technique that appeals to a lot of people is called "sector rotation."

You just kind of flit around being in the hot sector of the market making better choices than other people.

(2) The second basic approach is the one that Ben Graham use. (大名鼎鼎的格雷厄姆出现了!有空要好好看下他写的《聪明的投资者》)

As one factor, Graham had this concept of value to a private owner-what the whole enterprise would sell for if it were available. And that was calculable in many cases.

You had a huge margin of safety- as he put it-by having this big excess value going for you.

The best part of it all was his concept of "Mr. Market." Instead of thinking the market was efficient, Graham treated it as a manic-depressive who comes by every day.

(3) Berhshire Hathaway's system

And it makes sense to load up on the very few good insights you have instead of pretending to know everything about everything at all times. You're much more likely to do well if you start out to do something feasible instead of something that isn't feasible.

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.

4, How do you get into these great companies? (水晶苍蝇拍在他的书中也提过,如果用一句话来描述对投资的理解,即是“好生意、好企业、好投资”)

(1) the method of finding them small- get'em when they're little.及早发现

(2) get into a great business which also has a great manager because management matters. 有伟大的管理者

(3) the effect of taxes 税收效应


Vocabulary

subdivision   ['sʌbdɪ.vɪʒ(ə)n]   n.

1. [u] 再分割;再分;细分 the act of dividing a part of sth into smaller parts

2. [c] 进一步分成的部分;分支;分部 one of the smaller parts into which a part of sth has been divided

3. [c] (分割成小块的)建房土地 an area of land that has been divided up for building houses on

chiropractor  [ˈkaɪrəˌpræktər]  n.

1. 捏积医师;推拿师 a person whose job involves treating some diseases and physical problems by pressing and moving the bones in a person's spine or joints

permutation  [.pɜrmjʊ'teɪʃ(ə)n]  n.

1. 排列(方式);组合(方式);置换 any of the different ways in which a set of things can be ordered

asinine ['æsɪ.naɪn]  adj.

1. 愚蠢的;笨的 stupid or silly

bonkers  ['bɑŋkərz]  adj.

1. 疯狂;愚蠢透顶 completely crazy and silly


Again, that is a very, very powerful idea. Every person is going to have a circle of competence. And it's going to be very hard to enlarge that circle. If I had to make my living as a musician.... I can't even think of a level low enough to describe where I would be sorted out to if music were the measuring standard of the civilization.

So you have to figure out what your own aptitudes are. If you play games where other people have the aptitudes and you don't, you're going to lose. And that's as close to certain as any prediction that you can make. You have to figure out where you've got an edge. And you've got to play within your own circle of competence.

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