The European Central Banksignals there may be more stimulus ahead
Many worry it has used up all of itsoptions
欧洲央行暗示未来可能会有更多刺激措施
很多人担心他们已经别无选择
The Economist, Jul 26th 2019
（题记：想跟大家分享这篇文章的主要原因就是下面这张图，图片对比的是实际同比CPI和欧洲央行专家的预测值得对比，但这张图的标题是一厢情愿。）
CENTRALBANKERS HAVE historically been compared to party hosts, tasked with taking awaythe punchbowl before things get out of hand. At the moment, however, their jobis to keep the drinks flowing.
在过去，中央银行家们常被比作一个派对的主办人，他们的任务是在事态失控之前，撤销已经打出去的拳头。然而，目前他们的工作是保持货币的流动性。
TheEuropean Central Bank (ECB) has most to do. Europe’s economy is ailing: figuresreleased on July 24th show that manufacturing activity, as measured by thepurchasing managers’ index, is at its weakest level since 2013. Inflation isstubbornly low (see chart). Fearing a downturn, investors have piled intosafe-haven government bonds, driving yields below zero. On July 25th, MarioDraghi, the bank’s boss, signalled that he is preparing an arsenal of stimulusmeasures to jump-start growth and boost inflation.
欧洲中央银行有很多事情要做。首先，欧洲经济不景气，7月24日公布的采购经理人指数显示，制造业活动处于2013年以来的最低点。其次，通货膨胀率极低（见图表）。由于担心经济衰退，投资者为避开风险选择投资政府债券，导致收益率降至零以下。7月25日，银行行长马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）表示，他正在准备一系列措施，以刺激经济增长和通货膨胀。
The bankhas at least three tools at its disposal. At a minimum, it can offer guidanceabout forthcoming stimulus to influence market expectations—as Mr Draghi hasjust done. It can cut its benchmark interest rate. And it can launch a newround of bond-buying, known as quantitative easing (QE); its previousasset-purchase scheme, which was halted in December after four years, pumped€2.6trn ($3trn) into the European economy in order to stimulate lending.
现在至少有三种工具可供欧洲央行使用。像Draghi先生刚刚做的那样，至少它为即将到来的刺激市场预期的措施提供指导。它也可以降低基准利率。它还可以推出新一轮的债券购买，也就是量化宽松（QE）政策；其先前的资产购买计划为刺激贷款向欧洲经济注入了26万亿欧元（3万亿美元），但已于12月终止。
Alas,the ECB has little room for manoeuvre. The bank’s benchmark rate is currently-0.4%. Economists reckon that banks might soon stop passing on further ratecuts, for fear that depositors might yank their cash out of accounts ratherthan pay banks to hold them. And in order to expand QE significantly, the ECBwould have to lift its self-imposed limit on the share of a country’s debt itcan own. The bank may eventually have to widen the scope of its assets, perhapsby buying bank bonds and equities.
但是，欧洲央行没有多少回旋余地。银行的基准利率目前为-0.4%。经济学家认为，银行可能很快就会停止传递进一步的降息，因为担心储户可能宁愿增加提现，也不愿意付费银行存款服务。此外，为了大幅扩大量化宽松，欧洲央行将不得不取消其对一个国家可拥有债务份额的自我限制。银行最终可能不得不通过购买银行债券和股票，以扩大其资产范围。
