巴菲特1964年度信一(九)。2024-10-07

英文早读第83篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

Our Method of Operation
**我们的运作方式“”

In past annual letters I have always utilized three categories to describe investment operations we conduct. I now feel that a four-category division is more appropriate. Partially, the addition of a new section - "Generals Relatively Undervalued" - reflects my further consideration of essential differences that have always existed to a small extent with our "Generals" group. Partially, it reflects the growing importance of what once was a very small sub-category but is now a much more significant part of our total portfolio. This increasing importance has been accompanied by excellent results to date justifying significant time and effort devoted to finding additional opportunities in this area. Finally, it partially refects the development and implementation of a new and somewhat unique investment technique designed to improve the expectancy and consistency of operations in this category. Therefore, our four present categories are:
在过去的年度信中我经常用3个策略来描述我们实施的投资运作。现在我觉得4个策略分类是更合适的。部分是增加的新部分——“相对低估一般类”反应了我进一步考量对必要的区分在已经小范围内存在于我们的“一般类”中。部分是他反应了正在增长的重要性在曾经是一个非常小的子策略但是现在是更加重要的我们整个投资组合的一部分。这个增长的重要性已经被截至今天优秀的结果所实现,证明重要的时机和努力致力于找到这个领域额外的机会是对的。最后,部分是他反应了这个发展和实施一个新的并且某种程度上是独家的投资技术设计用于提升在这一策略中的期望和运作一致性。因此,我们4个当前的策略是:

  1. "Generals - Private Owner Basis" - a category of generally undervalued stocks, determined by quantitative standards, but with considerable attention also paid to the qualitative factor. There is often little or nothing to indicate immediate market improvement. The issues lack glamour or market sponsorship. Their main qualification is a bargain price; that is, an overall valuation of the enterprise substantially below what careful analysis indicates its value to a private owner to be. Again, let me emphasize that while the quantitative comes first and is essential, the qualitative is important. We like good management - we like a decent industry - we like a certain amount of "ferment" in a previously dormant management or stockholder group. But, we demand value.
    1.“一般类——基于私有化”——这个策略是一般被低估的股票,取决于定量标准,但是相当大的注意力也需要给到定性的因素。经常很少或没有东西能够表明立即的市场提成。这个项目缺乏光彩和市场红利。他们主要的条件是便宜的价格;也就是这个公司整体估值大幅低于经过仔细分析表明的私有化价值。再一次,让我强调尽管定量是首位但是必须的,定性是重要的。我们喜欢好的管理——我们喜欢好的行业——我们喜欢一定程度在之前休眠的管理层的“骚动”或者股东。但是,我们需要价值。

Many times in this category we have the desirable "two strings to our bow" situation where we should either achieve appreciation of market prices from external factors or from the acquisition of a controlling position in a business at a bargain price. While the former happens in the overwhelming majority of cases, the latter represents an insurance policy most investment operations don't have. We have continued to enlarge the positions in the three companies described in our 1964 midyear report where we are the largest stockholder. All three companies are increasing their fundmental value at a very satisfactory rate, and we are completely passive in two situations and active only on a very minor scale in the third. It is unlikely that we will ever take a really active part in policy-making in any of these three companies, but we stand ready if needed.
在这个策略里很多次我们有期望的“两条系在弓上的绳”的情况这里我们可以从外部因素实现市场价格上涨或者从在业务上以便宜的价格获得控制席位。然而前一种是压倒性的大多数情况发生的,后一种代表大部分投资运作不拥有的保险策略。我们已经继续扩大了在我们1964年中时报告的三家公司的席位并且是最大的股东了。所有三家公司都在增加他们的基础价值以非常令人满意的速度,并且我们在2家中完全被动的,在第3家中以非常微小的规模在活动。那是不太可能的我们在这3家公司的任何一家都实际活跃地参与政策制定,但是我们时刻都准备好了如果需要的话。

2."Generals - Relatively Undervalued" - this category consists of securities selling at prices relatively cheap compared to securities of the same general quality. We demand substantial discrepancies from current valuation standards, but (usually because of large size) do not feel value to a private owner to be a meaningful concept. It is important in this category, of course, that apples be compared to apples - and not to oranges, and we work hard at achieving that end. In the great majority of cases we simply do not know enough about the industry or company to come to sensible judgments - in that situation we pass.
2.“一般类——相对低估”——这个策略包括以比相同一般类质量地股票相比相对便宜的价格在出售。我们要求大幅地差异在当前的估值标准,但是(经常因为规模较大)感到对于私有化的价值来说没有意义。在这个策略当然很重要一点是苹果和苹果比较——而不是和橘子,并且我们努力工作去实现这个结果。在大部分情况下我们仅仅因为不足够熟悉这个行业或者这个公司以至于不能做出敏锐的判断——在这种情况下我们的略过了。

As mentioned earlier, this new category has been growing and has produced very satisfactory results. We have recently begun to implement a technique, which gives promise of very substantially reducing the risk from an overall change in valuation standards; e.g. We buy something at 12 times earnings when comparable of poorer quality companies sell at 20 times earnings, but then a major revaluation takes place so the latter only sell at 10 times.
像之前提到的,这个新的策略正在增长并且已经产生了非常令人满意的结果。我们最近开始运用一个技术,可以保证我们非常大幅减少来自于估值标准整体变化的风险;例如,我们买了某个股票以12倍盈利水平而相比于更加糟糕质量的公司以20倍盈利水平出售,但是之后一个主流的再评估发生了以至于后面这家公司仅仅以10倍水平在卖。

This risk has always bothered us enormously because of the helpless position in which we could be left compared to the "Generals - Private Owner" or "Workouts" types. With this risk diminished, we think this category has a promising future.
这个风险已经经常困扰我们大部分因为这个毫无希望的席位在这里我们不能和“一般类——基于私有化”或者“套利类”类型相比。当这个风险减弱后,我们认为这个策略是一个相当有希望的未来。

106.extent:程度;范围;大小;限度;面积
107.implementation:实施;执行;完成;贯彻;工具;生效;仪器
108.consistency:一致性;连贯性
109.ferment:(使)发酵;(政治或社会上的)动乱,骚动,纷扰
110.overwhelming:压倒性的;巨大的;势不可挡的;无法抗击的
111.unlikely:不大可能发生的;令人不愉快的;讨厌的;靠不住的
112.passive:被动的;消极的
113.discrepancy:差异;不一致;不符合
114.diminish:减少;降低;减弱、缩减;贬低;贬损;轻视
115.promising:有希望的;有前途的;有出息的;承诺;答应;预示
116.justify:证明正当;对……做出解释;证明……正确

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