Abstract：Tourism activities and infrastructure development, as responses to expectations from tourists, are generally considered to negatively influence ecosystem services, specifically at tourism sites. Some studies even show that the construction of any infrastructure, such as accommodation facilities and new roads, endangers the authenticity and integrity of World Heritage sites (WHS). Therefore, it is crucial to have insight into the characteristics of land use in tourism areas and the changes that occur, and to ensure ecosystems can continue to provide services. The purpose of this paper is to analyze changes in land use in the areas around tourism sites. This study developed a future land use simulation (FLUS) model to simulate land use changes based on spatial-temporal data on areas around tourist destinations in general and especially around WHS. The FLUS model was applied to simulate the land use changes in tourism development areas in the middle part of Java Island, Indonesia. This study selected six locational factors and three topographic factors to define the transition map outlining the probability of occurrence for conditions and topography on each land use map grid. The model improved using simulation from 2015 to 2018, with an accuracy of 89.99% and kappa coefficient of 0.8234. The FLUS model was further employed to simulate the land use changes from 2018 to 2036. The results of the analysis of land use change in tourism locations indicate a significant change from croplands to built-up areas. This analysis was conducted to provide information for policymakers and investors so that they can make the right decisions when developing the infrastructure development plan. Notably for areas whose economic sector is being developed, but also in particular, have areas that must be preserved.Keywords: Cellular automata; Land use; Simulation; Spatial-temporal; Tourism
旅游业是印度尼西亚发展计划的一个重要部分，2019年印度尼西亚的TTCi相比2017年增加了2个百分点。旅游业的活动和发展，有可能对旅游点造成损害，尤其是世界遗产点和濒危的生态系统。旅游业设施占地不断扩展，自然生态系统范围缩小，可能对生态环境造成无法恢复的影响。因此，建立一个合适的基础设施发展计划以支持旅游业可持续发展非常关键。只有统筹好城市发展和旅游业发展的城市才更有可能实现可持续发展。一个合适的规划需要详细和准确的信息以支持决策。当今的科技发展可以为我们提供很多信息包括空间数据，开会数据可以帮助分析一个实体的空间特征。本研究的主要目的是分析旅游点附近的用地变化情况，可以协助投资者和政府相关部门决策。
方法
本研究的模拟过程使用了2009，2015，2018的用地情况地图。先前的研究揭示了不同的驱动因子可以影响用地变化，包括了居住密度，到市中心的距离，到河流的距离，到道路的距离，地形数据，土壤数据，气候数据，未来气候预测，和生态区域。
在对图像进行预处理后，下一步是为生成过渡图准备驱动因素的山歌图像。本研究通过从DEM中提取坡向坡度高程，栅格化用地图并为每一个驱动因子创建了距离地图。下一阶段包括通过元胞自动机进行土地使用分配过程和确认过程，最后的模拟结果将被转化为shp格式再通过PostGIS导入Postgres，邻近性分析可以在该项目中用多种函数实现。
结论
土地用途变化的结果有相似之处。，以改变旅游地点的土地用途。按土地面积计算，建成区类别逐年持续增加，水域类别亦是如此，尽管百分比增幅仍然很小。一些旅游地点的土地利用也发生了变化。几种类型的文化旅游景点已经从农田变成了建成区，包括旅游村庄、景点、文化遗产和宗教旅游。对于文化自然资源的过度开发会损害环境的可持续发展，所以完善相关政策要以保证景点的吸引力尤为重要。
模拟过程显示建成区规模发生了巨大扩张，很多旅游景点附近的用地类型从农田变为建成区，这其中不乏一些世界文化遗产。
TCL碎碎念
看到元胞自动机还楞了一下，太久远的回忆了，本文提出了FLUX模型来衡量旅游点附近的用地规模变化，并且获得了比较高的准确性。同时使用了印度尼西亚的几个自然文化历史遗产，分析其周边地区用地变化的情况。给出了几个衡量参数来验证模型的准确性，并对WHS周边环境保护提出了更高要求，需要制定一个合理的发展用地规划。这篇思想和技术路线其实都非常清楚，但是模型的模拟和修改难度非常大。
