巴菲特1975年度信(三)。2025-01-24

英文早读第192篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

Economic inflation, with the increase in cost of repairing humans and property far outstripping the general rate of inflation, produced ultimate loss costs which soared beyond premium levels established in a different cost environment. "Social" inflation caused the liability concept to be expanded continuously, far beyond limits contemplated when rates were established - in effect, adding coverage beyond what was paid for. Such social inflation increased significantly both the propensity to sue and the possibility of collecting mammoth jury awards for events not previously considered statistically significant in the establishment of rates. Furthermore, losses to policyholders which otherwise would result from mushrooming insolvencies of companies inadequately reacting to these problems are divided through Guaranty Funds among remaining solvent insurers. These trends will continue, and should moderate any optimism which otherwise might be justified by the sharply increased rates now taking effect.
经济通货膨胀,随着人力和财产维修成本的上升远超过一般通胀率,导致最终的赔付成本比之前建立在不同成本环境下的保险水平猛增。社会性的通胀引发了持续扩大的责任观念,远超过在费率建立时预想的限制范围,结果,提供了超出支付保费范围的保障。这样的社会性通胀大幅增加了诉讼倾向和大量陪审团给事故赔付的可能性,而不是之前在建立费率时考虑的统计数字。更进一步,给投保人的赔付由那些因为无法负责这些问题而雨后春笋般破产的公司将会被分给仍有偿付能力的承包人保证金来承担。这个趋势将会持续,而且将会消磨任何乐观主义,即使以正在发生的急剧上涨的费率来看。

Berkshire Hathaway's insurance subsidiaries have a disproportionate concentration of business in precisely the lines which produced the worst underwriting results in 1975. Such lines produce unusually high investment income and, therefore, have been particularly attractive to us under previous underwriting conditions. However, our "mix" has been very disadvantageous during the past two years and it well may be that we will remain positioned in the more difficult part of the insurance spectrum during the inflationary years ahead.
伯克希尔哈撒韦的保险子公司在那些1975年产生最糟糕承保结果的产品上由不成比例的集中。这些产品能有很高的投资回报,因此在之前承保条件下对我们尤其有吸引力。然而,我们的组合方式在最近2年是很不利的,接下来通胀年份或许我们将仍处于最难的保险业务领域。

The only segment to show improved results for us during 1975 was the "home state" operation, which has made continuous progress under the leadership of John Ringwalt. Although still operating at a significant underwriting loss, the combined ratio improved from 1974. Adjusted for excess costs contributable to operations still in the start-up phase, underwriting results are satisfactory. Texas United Insurance Company, a major problem a few years ago, has made outstanding progress since George Billing has assumed command. With an almost totally new agency force, Texas United was the winner of the "Chairman's Cup" for achievement of the lowest loss ratio among the home state companies. Cornhusker Casualty Company, oldest and largest of the home state companies, continues its outstanding operation with major gains in premium volume and a combined ratio slightly under 100. Substantial premium growth is expected at the home state operation during 1976; the measurement of success, however, will continue to be the achievement of a low combined ratio.
在1975年我们唯一展现出增长的部分是州内保险业务,在约翰令怀特的领导下持续进展。尽管仍有较大的承保赔付,但联合费用比例比1974年有所改善。额外花费主要是因为业务仍处于起步阶段,承保结果是令人满意的。德州联合保险公司,几年前是个大问题,自从佐治比灵接管后已经有了出色的进展。在一个几乎全新的代理力量下,德州联合赢得了“董事长杯”,作为在州内保险公司中最低的赔付比成就。科恩哈斯科意外险公司,作为最悠久和最大的州内公司,业务持续出彩,在保险规模和稍低于100的联合费用比例上都有较大增长。在1976年我们预期州内保险业务会有大幅保险规模增长;然而,成功的衡量仍将继续是实现较低的联合费用比例。

Our traditional business at National Indemnity Company, representing well over half of our insurance volume, had an extraordinarily bad underwriting year in 1975. Although rates were increased frequently and significantly, they continually lagged loss experience throughout the year. Several special programs institued in the early 1970s have caused significant losses, as well as heavy drain on managerial time and energies. Present indications are that premium volume will show a major increase in 1976, and we hope that underwriting results will improve. Reinsurance suffered the same problems as our direct business during 1975. The same remedial efforts were attempted. Because reinsurance contract settlements lag those of direct business, it well may be that any upturn in results from our direct insurance business will precede those of the reinsurance segment.
我们在国家保障公司的传统业务,代表着超过我们保险体量的一半,在1975年承保尤其糟糕。尽管费率经常且大幅增加,但他们在这一整年都始终落后于赔付。几个在1970年代早期推行的特殊项目触发了较大的亏损,同样严重耗费管理实践和精力。现在表明保险规模在1976年会较大增长,我们希望承保结果也会提升。再保险业务在1975年经历了和直销业务同样的问题。同样也努力尝试补救。因为再保险合同结算滞后于那些直销业务,同样任何来自于我们直销业务的改善也会领先于再保险业务部分。

18.outstripping:超过;超越;胜过
19.soared:翱翔;猛增;高飞;急升
20.contemplated:预期的;考虑;沉思;思量
21.coverage:覆盖范围;新闻报道;提供的数量
22.propensity:(行为方面的)倾向;倾向性;习性
23.sue:控告;控诉;要求;请求;诉求
24.mammoth:猛犸象;毛象;庞大的;极其巨大的
25.jury:陪审团;裁判委员会
26.policyholder:保单持有人;投保客户
27.insolvencies:破产;不足抵偿债务
28.solvent:可溶解的;有偿付能力的
29.optimism:乐观;乐观主义
30.be justified by:以…为理由;以…为依据
31.disproportionate:不成比例的;不相称的
32.spectrum:频谱;范围;系列
33.drain:排水;排空;耗尽;耗费;耗竭
34.remedial:补救的;纠正的
35.settlement:解决;支付;偿付;结算;处理
36.upturn:好转;回升;改善;提高
37.precede:先于;在…之前发生(或出现)

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